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Re CFP: Get Used To This

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I’m referring to our limited interest in the doings of the “SEC Elite” in their games for the next season or two...
I mean, sure, we’ll still tend to have a “sporting interest” in such games, but until we are consistently actually back IN these contests ourselves, we might watch the ones that are more competitive and well-played—but NOT with anything more than (in my case, for example) mainly “one distracted eye”...
I still love the game as it is played in the SEC, but the last dozen or so years have more and more been a growing strain on my waning faith and enthusiasm.
The very radical nature of the wholesale changes brought in so far by Coach BN insures both necessary change and probably some tough times directly ahead.
Though I am excited to have Texas and Oklahoma joining our league, I find myself sort of hoping WE aren’t scheduled to play them for a few seasons; I’d like to see us at least STARTING to gel and RISE as a “power” in a resurgent SEC East before we face either ONE in a nationally-featured game on a Saturday night in the Swamp! How bout y’all??!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I am not sure what your complaints are. The CFP currently puts the best teams into the playoffs. Florida has not invested in championship teams since Urban Meyer was here, and that was using an older formula of speed on both sides of the ball, gimmicky or innovative schemes on both sides, and recruiting grounds dominated by in-state schools. It looks like Florida is finally investing across the board using Alabama’s formula—the same formula that is used by UGA and aTm. Now the question is whether Florida can tweak the Alabama formula with NIL and something unique to Billy Napier.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I am not sure what your complaints are. The CFP currently puts the best teams into the playoffs. Florida has not invested in championship teams since Urban Meyer was here, and that was using an older formula of speed on both sides of the ball, gimmicky or innovative schemes on both sides, and recruiting grounds dominated by in-state schools. It looks like Florida is finally investing across the board using Alabama’s formula—the same formula that is used by UGA and aTm. Now the question is whether Florida can tweak the Alabama formula with NIL and something unique to Billy Napier.
I’m not really “complaining” about anything in particular;
In fact, I don’t disagree with anything you say here.
I am simply, admittedly bitching about the reality of our current plight—essentially starting OVER, with a long road back to where we even thought we were GETTING TO under Mullen it seemed until the bottom fell out.
Now I’m sitting here watching the CFP Championship between two finely-built and tuned SEC teams, and must face the simple fact that it’ll take time, work and patience before WE’LL be there too.
And THAT’S what my title and accompanying rant above is all about. For the next season or two at LEAST, I fear, there’ll be OUR games, and meanwhile games like THIS one...until the two are once again “one and the SAME”, I’ll be less-than-satisfied. I admit that.
Not that we’re currently deserving of anything more:
No one’s gonna HAND us ANYTHING—and well they SHOULDN’T!
Just don’t expect me to be particularly gracious about it...
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I hoping for an expansion of either 6 or 8 teams. Will we get it? Probably not but never say never.
Oh, we’ll get SOMETHING of the sort: THE MONEY’S THERE, so the effort will be made to grab it.
So far at least a viable Championship game matching two worthy teams superior to the rest of the field, winnowed down to that by a stringent regular season that places high value on each game played in the course of play game-to-game in (this past season at least) a superior conference:
Ideally, it would seem that such a process among the “cream” from say (carefully discussed, negotiated and chosen), four such “superior conferences” comprised of “major college football programs”, ultimately leading to a similar relatively small number of ranked teams competing in just such a “CFP” annually each New Year, something that likewise DOESN’T devalue the drama and primary importance of each regular-season game, is what we all should strive to maintain!
What begins to emerge is something whose details change from year to year, but so far DOES seem to allow a worthy “match-up”, and ultimately, a proper “Champion” for that season to emerge.
(Personal note:
Taking THIS year as example, I am HARDLY an UGA fan—I mean, I actually found myself pulling for THE TIDE last night!—but even I would have to admit that all-in-all, on balance, the better team, this past season’s proper “National Champion”, did in fact emerge:
On this night, in this game and season, the Georgia Bulldogs proved their worth on the climactic national public stage.
A few more “tweaks” and organizational adjustments to the larger components (as noted and outlined above) and we all might have a fair and viable system that can work for some time to come.)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is how you make an 8 team playoff work:
1. Each P5 conference champion gets a spot
2. CFP rankings determine wildcard spots 6-8
3. Use the current bowl vs conference alignments to set the round 1 matches (with some modifications) to narrow the field to 4. Re-rank the teams based on strength of schedule and point differential.
4. Randomize the round 2 matches to narrow the field to 2.
5. Use NFL stadiums for the final round.

The reason this works is that all conference champions get a CFP spot, and 3 teams get to fight for a wildcard. On top of that, all 8 round 1 teams have a relatively equal shot at the final 2 spots, other than some home field advantage for some conference-affiliated bowl games. All 4 round 2 teams have an equal shot at the final 2 spots because the matchups are randomized.
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
I've been debating on expanding to either 6 or 8. With six, 3-6 plays each other in the opening round and the top two teams have the bye week. With eight, no one gets the bye but more wild card teams get in. Each one would give the Power 5 Conference Champs/Notre Dame an opportunity to be there unless that conference champ/Notre Dame has two or more losses.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Here is how you make an 8 team playoff work:
1. Each P5 conference champion gets a spot
2. CFP rankings determine wildcard spots 6-8
3. Use the current bowl vs conference alignments to set the round 1 matches (with some modifications) to narrow the field to 4. Re-rank the teams based on strength of schedule and point differential.
4. Randomize the round 2 matches to narrow the field to 2.
5. Use NFL stadiums for the final round.

The reason this works is that all conference champions get a CFP spot, and 3 teams get to fight for a wildcard. On top of that, all 8 round 1 teams have a relatively equal shot at the final 2 spots, other than some home field advantage for some conference-affiliated bowl games. All 4 round 2 teams have an equal shot at the final 2 spots because the matchups are randomized.
I've been debating on expanding to either 6 or 8. With six, 3-6 plays each other in the opening round and the top two teams have the bye week. With eight, no one gets the bye but more wild card teams get in. Each one would give the Power 5 Conference Champs/Notre Dame an opportunity to be there unless that conference champ/Notre Dame has two or more losses.
In both of the above cases, the fact does remain I think that a further “shake-out/realignment” will be required to bring us to a worthy balance among the eventual “four conferences” (each with 16 teams, as I foresee it) participating in any such eventual “final incarnation” of the CFP system we are discussing here now—whether it turns out a six OR eight team set-up.
We’re just not there yet. A number of varied “extraneous details” will have to be settled;
One need look more further than just one of SEVERAL of these, for example the likelihood that Notre Dame is finally fitted into one of these “major conferences” (if only for their football program alone) will finally have to happen: the reasons they continue to be handled so “delicately different” become increasingly nebulous as the seasons go by.
Anyway, I’m not sure how it will be managed—presumably somewhat “behind the scenes”, out of the public spotlight among the various interested parties/powers-that-be whom are directly involved.
But it does appear we are close. Even NOW the system-at-hand, admittedly imperfect, IS producing worthy match-ups on an annual basis—and, once again, I don’t see the Champions produced of late as controversial ones:
Like it or not, we ARE generally seeing the “top teams” selected competing in exciting, competitive games.
Among all the post-Championship game discussion, I note little debate about whether this one’s emergent “winner” is “unworthy”:
There is little discussion of someone wrongly ignored or somehow left out this time.
There are less such questions than ever, of late.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Another “related question”, one that MAY in fact be the REAL “BOTTOM LINE ISSUE”,
is THIS ONE:
Which of the many possible “organizational outcomes” would in fact likely produce the greatest CASH COW???!
And IS that one and the same as the answer to the question, which would stimulate the most interest, attract the maximum number of watchers, “paying CUSTOMERS” (and in whatever form that sustains itself over time??!)...
(...and BTW: Do you notice that the more one tries to “boil it down”, the more DIFFICULT this all gets to SIMPLIFY??!)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
In both of the above cases, the fact does remain I think that a further “shake-out/realignment” will be required to bring us to a worthy balance among the eventual “four conferences” (each with 16 teams, as I foresee it) participating in any such eventual “final incarnation” of the CFP system we are discussing here now—whether it turns out a six OR eight team set-up.
We’re just not there yet. A number of varied “extraneous details” will have to be settled;
One need look more further than just one of SEVERAL of these, for example the likelihood that Notre Dame is finally fitted into one of these “major conferences” (if only for their football program alone) will finally have to happen: the reasons they continue to be handled so “delicately different” become increasingly nebulous as the seasons go by.
Anyway, I’m not sure how it will be managed—presumably somewhat “behind the scenes”, out of the public spotlight among the various interested parties/powers-that-be whom are directly involved.
But it does appear we are close. Even NOW the system-at-hand, admittedly imperfect, IS producing worthy match-ups on an annual basis—and, once again, I don’t see the Champions produced of late as controversial ones:
Like it or not, we ARE generally seeing the “top teams” selected competing in exciting, competitive games.
Among all the post-Championship game discussion, I note little debate about whether this one’s emergent “winner” is “unworthy”:
There is little discussion of someone wrongly ignored or somehow left out this time.
There are less such questions than ever, of late.
Exactly. It is not about the number of teams in the playoffs. The CFP needs to find a way to weave stakes and meaning into each round of the playoff while acknowledging the need for hosts and sponsors to generate guaranteed revenue. Years ago under Bowl Alliance we would not know which of the top 6 bowl games would produce a national champion, so audiences watched all 6 and players were vested in all 6–and each bowl game was guaranteed to generate sufficient revenue.

The way to do this is to go back to the old ways but limit the field to conference champions and a couple wildcard spots. Here is how the 2021-2022 CFP would have played out if the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams (New Year's Six bowls only):

Peach Bowl - SEC vs ACC or highest-ranked champion from AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW, or Sun Belt
#12 Pitt vs #4 Cincinnati

Cotton Bowl - Big 12 #1 vs SEC
#9 Oklahoma State vs #8 Ole Miss

Orange Bowl - ACC #1 vs SEC/ Big Ten/ Notre Dame
#3 Georgia vs #5 Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 vs Big Ten/ Notre Dame or highest-ranked champion from AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW, or Sun Belt
#6 Ohio State vs #10 Michigan State

Rose Bowl - Pac-12 #1 vs Big Ten or hand-selected match-ups based on geography or history
#2 Michigan vs #11 Utah

Sugar Bowl - SEC #1 vs Big 12 #1 or SEC #1 vs Big Ten
#1 Alabama vs #7 Baylor

Citrus and Gator Bowl would get demoted out of the playoff system, or the playoff would have to add #15 Iowa, #22 Kentucky, #17 Wake Forest, and #14 Oregon

The payouts look like this:
$300k to each conference for school that meets NCAA APR
$66M to each P5 conference that sends a champion to the Orange, Rose, or Sugar Bowl
$90M to each G5 conference that sends a champion to the Orange, Rose, or Sugar Bowl
In this scenario the $6M to each team in the semi-final would have to change to maybe half of that.
Each bowl champion gets a share of that bowl game revenue, which for the top teams is about $5M to $10M per team or $800k to $6M for the lesser bowl games.

If the FBS simply adopted the FCS 24-team championship format it would dilute the NY6 revenue, assuming it did not cause athletes to skip out of the NY6 bowls anyway due to the lack of a clear path to a national title.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Exactly. It is not about the number of teams in the playoffs. The CFP needs to find a way to weave stakes and meaning into each round of the playoff while acknowledging the need for hosts and sponsors to generate guaranteed revenue. Years ago under Bowl Alliance we would not know which of the top 6 bowl games would produce a national champion, so audiences watched all 6 and players were vested in all 6–and each bowl game was guaranteed to generate sufficient revenue.

The way to do this is to go back to the old ways but limit the field to conference champions and a couple wildcard spots. Here is how the 2021-2022 CFP would have played out if the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams (New Year's Six bowls only):

Peach Bowl - SEC vs ACC or highest-ranked champion from AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW, or Sun Belt
#12 Pitt vs #4 Cincinnati

Cotton Bowl - Big 12 #1 vs SEC
#9 Oklahoma State vs #8 Ole Miss

Orange Bowl - ACC #1 vs SEC/ Big Ten/ Notre Dame
#3 Georgia vs #5 Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 vs Big Ten/ Notre Dame or highest-ranked champion from AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW, or Sun Belt
#6 Ohio State vs #10 Michigan State

Rose Bowl - Pac-12 #1 vs Big Ten or hand-selected match-ups based on geography or history
#2 Michigan vs #11 Utah

Sugar Bowl - SEC #1 vs Big 12 #1 or SEC #1 vs Big Ten
#1 Alabama vs #7 Baylor

Citrus and Gator Bowl would get demoted out of the playoff system, or the playoff would have to add #15 Iowa, #22 Kentucky, #17 Wake Forest, and #14 Oregon

The payouts look like this:
$300k to each conference for school that meets NCAA APR
$66M to each P5 conference that sends a champion to the Orange, Rose, or Sugar Bowl
$90M to each G5 conference that sends a champion to the Orange, Rose, or Sugar Bowl
In this scenario the $6M to each team in the semi-final would have to change to maybe half of that.
Each bowl champion gets a share of that bowl game revenue, which for the top teams is about $5M to $10M per team or $800k to $6M for the lesser bowl games.

If the FBS simply adopted the FCS 24-team championship format it would dilute the NY6 revenue, assuming it did not cause athletes to skip out of the NY6 bowls anyway due to the lack of a clear path to a national title.
If nothing else, the above “complex, Byzantine machinations” required to even begin to unravel and ultimately settle the financial aspects of the required reorganization, let alone then turning to the various “socio-political” ones (like it or not, they are THERE, and one way or another will HAVE to be addressed, somehow incorporated into to the final CFP set-up).
I give props for even BEGINNING to address it all—but much remains to be considered and somehow addressed.
 
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