Overview
The Florida Gators travel to College Station, Texas, for a high-stakes SEC showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies in a prime-time match-up at Kyle Field. For Texas A&M, this is an opportunity to continue their undefeated start and solidify their position as an SEC and potential College Football Playoff contender. For Florida, coming off a surprising upset victory over a ranked opponent, a win in College Station would provide an enormous boost to the program and change the trajectory of their season.
Betting Line
Texas A&M -7.5 to -8.5
Texas A&M -298 to -330 / Florida +240
46.5 points
Prediction
Texas A&M 32, Florida 17
Offensive Implosion vs Explosion
The Gator offense is largely horrible outside of accidental passes that make it to receivers that the defense has not seen yet--first it was Vernell Brown III and then Dallas Wilson. Now that there is tape on both of them, do not expect either one to earn any easy yards.
Defensive Ray of Hope
There are Rays in Tampa Bay, and there are rays of hope in Gainesville when it comes to defense.
However, the Aggies defense is strong against the run and elite against the pass. If Texas A&M can replicate their success from the previous year's match-up—where they held the Gators to only 52 rushing yards—it will make Florida's offense one-dimensional. This would force Lagway to throw against a top-tier secondary and a strong pass rush led by players like Cashius Howell (7 sacks).
On the bright side, assuming the Aggies have not already collected enough film to stop Dallas Wilson, Lagway will have options to spread the ball around to Wilson (6 REC, 111 YD, 2 TD, 18.5 YPC), Vernell Brown III (21 REC, 291 YD, 0 TD, 13.9 YPC), J. Michael Sturdivant (10 REC, 118 YD, 1 TD, 11.8 YPC), and Hayden Hansen (17 REC, 151 YD, 1 TD, 8.9 YPC).
A key for the Aggies will be to convert on third downs, something they did well in the last meeting. If they can sustain drives and keep the clock moving, they will wear down the Gators' defense and capitalize on scoring opportunities. They will look to wide receivers Mario Craver (30 REC, 557 YD, 4 TD, 18.6 YPC), KC Concepcion (24 REC, 401 YD, 5 TD, 16.7 YPC), and Terry Bussey (9 REC, 110 YD, 1 TD, 12.2 YPC).
The Florida Gators travel to College Station, Texas, for a high-stakes SEC showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies in a prime-time match-up at Kyle Field. For Texas A&M, this is an opportunity to continue their undefeated start and solidify their position as an SEC and potential College Football Playoff contender. For Florida, coming off a surprising upset victory over a ranked opponent, a win in College Station would provide an enormous boost to the program and change the trajectory of their season.
Betting Line
Texas A&M -7.5 to -8.5
Texas A&M -298 to -330 / Florida +240
46.5 points
Prediction
Texas A&M 32, Florida 17
Key Match-ups and Analysis
This game is expected to start as a lower-scoring, defensive battle until the better team pulls away in the second half. The Aggies typically enjoy a strong home-field advantage.Quarterback Battle: DJ Lagway vs. Marcel Reed
This match-up pits two promising second-year quarterbacks against each other:- Florida's DJ Lagway: Coming off a strong performance against Texas, Lagway has shown flashes of his dual-threat ability when he is not injured. However, he has also struggled with consistency and turnovers, throwing 7 interceptions to 7 touchdowns early in the season and there is no guarantee those mistakes are due to injury, lack of live practice, or all the above. The Aggies' defensive goal will be to pressure Lagway (unlike the vaunted Texas defense) and force him into making plays primarily with his arm against their experienced secondary.
- Texas A&M's Marcel Reed: Reed has been efficient, throwing for 1,256 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. He is also a consistent threat with his legs, which will challenge the Gators' defense. The Aggies' offense, averaging over 40 points per game, is at its best when Reed is unleashed as a runner and passer.
| Quarterback (Team) | Passing Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Passer Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Lagway (Florida) | 988 | 7 | 7 | ∼129.86 (86) |
| Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) | 1,256 | 11 | 3 | ∼154.03 (36) |
Offensive Implosion vs Explosion
The Gator offense is largely horrible outside of accidental passes that make it to receivers that the defense has not seen yet--first it was Vernell Brown III and then Dallas Wilson. Now that there is tape on both of them, do not expect either one to earn any easy yards.
| Category | Florida | Texas A&M | Difference (Advantage) | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 23.4 | 34.8 | +11.4 (TAMU) | 42nd / 98th |
| Total Yards Per Game (YPG) | 354 | 466.8 | +112.8 (TAMU) | 22nd / 94th |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 223.8 | 271.4 | +47.6 (TAMU) | 35th / 74th |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 130.2 | 195.4 | +65.2 (TAMU) | 37th / 101st |
| Yards Per Play | 5.35 | 6.72 | +1.37 (TAMU) | 27th/ 80th |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 34.80% | 30.6% | −4.2% (FLA) | ~100th /~110th |
Defensive Ray of Hope
There are Rays in Tampa Bay, and there are rays of hope in Gainesville when it comes to defense.
| Category | Florida | Texas A&M | Difference (Advantage) | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent Points Per Game (PPG) | 17 | 24 | +7.0 (FLA) | 26th / 73rd |
| Opponent Total Yards Per Game (YPG) | 295.6 | 310 | +14.4 (FLA) | 24th / 25th |
| Opponent Passing Yards Per Game | 196.2 | 190 | +6.2 (TAMU) | 49th / 32nd |
| Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game | 99.4 | 117.3 | +17.9 (FLA) | 32nd / 49th |
| Opponent Yards Per Play | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 (TAMU) | 50th / 40th |
| Opponent 3rd Down Conversion % | 31.90% | 24.6% | +7.3% (TAMU) | ~35th / ~7th |
When Florida Has the Ball
Florida's best path to offensive success will be on the ground with running back Jadan Baugh (76 CAR, 396 YD, 3 TD, 5.3 YPC) and Duke Clark (15 CAR, 58 YDS, 0 TD, 3.9 YPC). The Gators operate at one of the slowest tempos in the country, which they will likely try to use to limit A&M's possessions--just like last year, which was a great recipe for disaster.However, the Aggies defense is strong against the run and elite against the pass. If Texas A&M can replicate their success from the previous year's match-up—where they held the Gators to only 52 rushing yards—it will make Florida's offense one-dimensional. This would force Lagway to throw against a top-tier secondary and a strong pass rush led by players like Cashius Howell (7 sacks).
On the bright side, assuming the Aggies have not already collected enough film to stop Dallas Wilson, Lagway will have options to spread the ball around to Wilson (6 REC, 111 YD, 2 TD, 18.5 YPC), Vernell Brown III (21 REC, 291 YD, 0 TD, 13.9 YPC), J. Michael Sturdivant (10 REC, 118 YD, 1 TD, 11.8 YPC), and Hayden Hansen (17 REC, 151 YD, 1 TD, 8.9 YPC).
When Texas A&M Has the Ball
Texas A&M's offense, led by Reed and a powerful run game featuring Le'Veon Moss (65 CAR, 343 YD, 5 TD, 5.3 YPC) and Rueben Owens II (39 CAR, 276 YD, 0 TD, 7.1 YPC). The Aggies' objective will be to exploit Florida's pass defense, which ranks lower nationally in efficiency.A key for the Aggies will be to convert on third downs, something they did well in the last meeting. If they can sustain drives and keep the clock moving, they will wear down the Gators' defense and capitalize on scoring opportunities. They will look to wide receivers Mario Craver (30 REC, 557 YD, 4 TD, 18.6 YPC), KC Concepcion (24 REC, 401 YD, 5 TD, 16.7 YPC), and Terry Bussey (9 REC, 110 YD, 1 TD, 12.2 YPC).
X-Factors
- Kyle Field Atmosphere: Texas A&M boasts one of the most challenging home environments in college football, especially for a night game. Mike Elko is 6-2 (.750) at Kyle Field (compared to Billy Napier's record of 13-11 (.542) in the Swamp). The home-field advantage is often considered worth a full 3 points on the spread. Note that Florida is 326-119-1 (0.725) all-time in the Swamp and Texas A&M is 288-143-3 (.663) all-time at Kyle Field.
- Florida's Momentum: The Gators are fresh off a major upset. Can they carry that confidence and offensive execution to a hostile environment, or will the Aggies' superior overall defense shut them down?
- Florida's Slow Pace: If Florida can successfully control the tempo and limit the total number of possessions, they increase their chances of keeping the game close and forcing Texas A&M into a four-quarter battle.
Conclusion
Texas A&M enters the contest as a clear favorite, relying on their potent offense and a stout defense to secure a victory at home. For the Gators to pull off their second major upset in as many weeks, they will need a near-perfect performance from DJ Lagway, explosive plays from a healthy receiving corps, sustained success in the running game, and for their defense to limit the Aggies' explosive plays. The prevailing analysis points toward a hard-fought, lower-scoring game that ultimately favors the undefeated Aggies.
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