OGT 2025: Week 4 Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes

[Escambia94]

Week 4, 9/20: at Miami Hurricanes
The Gators are 27-30 all-time against the Canes. Billy Napier is 20-21 as head coach of the Gators. Last year the Canes curb-stomped the Gators with a less talented team. The Gators will be missing their best defender, RSr DE Caleb Banks and might be missing George Gumbs. This is a recipe for disaster.

• Scouting the Opponent: Last year’s winner of the Florida Cup gets another shot at holding onto the “state championship”. Miami is 3-0 with victories over Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman and USF. The Gators will be facing one of the best QBs in the ACC–their former SEC foe, Carson Beck. The Canes have finished #7 to #14 in recruiting since 2020. Last year, Mario Cristobal made it clear that he was further along than fellow 3rd-year coach Billy Napier. If Napier cannot redeem himself in this game, I am jumping off the Billy Napier hype train.
• History: The Gators are 27-30 against the Canes in a rivalry that dates to 1938. That was not a good year for the Gators, who finished 4-6-1 (2-2-1, SEC). The Gators lost to Miami 7-19 in 1938, but they did beat the Canes in the next 3 matchups–including a 46-6 beatdown in 1940.
• Analysis: A rivalry game on the road. Miami is a solid program, but the Gators’ projected improvements should give them an edge. Expect a close, hard-fought game with the Gators’ defense making a key play late. The Gator defense will need a turnover from Carson Beck to keep this game close enough for DJ Lagway and the stable of running backs to put away.
• Score Prediction: Florida 13, Miami 52. If the Gators lose this game by double digits, I might sell my own body parts and contribute to Napier’s buyout.

Predicted Stat	scUM	FLA
Score	52	13
Total Yards	550	350
Passing	350	275
Rushing	200	75

Last year the stat line looked like this:

Last year	scUM	FLA
Score	41	17
1st downs	25	17
Total yards	529	261
Passing	385	122
Rushing	144	139
Penalties	2-26	2-25
TOP	34:30	25:30

Even if The Fightin’ Napiers win this game, I will not be watching. I have chores to do around the house.

 

[DRU2012]

Week 4, 9/20: at Miami Hurricanes
The Gators are 27-30 all-time against the Canes. Billy Napier is 20-21 as head coach of the Gators. Last year the Canes curb-stomped the Gators with a less talented team. The Gators will be missing their best defender, RSr DE Caleb Banks and might be missing George Gumbs. This is a recipe for disaster.

• Scouting the Opponent: Last year’s winner of the Florida Cup gets another shot at holding onto the “state championship”. Miami is 3-0 with victories over Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman and USF. The Gators will be facing one of the best QBs in the ACC–their former SEC foe, Carson Beck. The Canes have finished #7 to #14 in recruiting since 2020. Last year, Mario Cristobal made it clear that he was further along than fellow 3rd-year coach Billy Napier. If Napier cannot redeem himself in this game, I am jumping off the Billy Napier hype train.
• History: The Gators are 27-30 against the Canes in a rivalry that dates to 1938. That was not a good year for the Gators, who finished 4-6-1 (2-2-1, SEC). The Gators lost to Miami 7-19 in 1938, but they did beat the Canes in the next 3 matchups–including a 46-6 beatdown in 1940.
• Analysis: A rivalry game on the road. Miami is a solid program, but the Gators’ projected improvements should give them an edge. Expect a close, hard-fought game with the Gators’ defense making a key play late. The Gator defense will need a turnover from Carson Beck to keep this game close enough for DJ Lagway and the stable of running backs to put away.
• Score Prediction: Florida 13, Miami 52. If the Gators lose this game by double digits, I might sell my own body parts and contribute to Napier’s buyout.

Predicted Stat	scUM	FLA
Score	52	13
Total Yards	550	350
Passing	350	275
Rushing	200	75

Last year the stat line looked like this:

Last year	scUM	FLA
Score	41	17
1st downs	25	17
Total yards	529	261
Passing	385	122
Rushing	144	139
Penalties	2-26	2-25
TOP	34:30	25:30

Even if The Fightin’ Napiers win this game, I will not be watching. I have chores to do around the house.

That last pretty well embodies my feeling exactly.
Been puttering around all day, having pretty well lost any interest in college football generally.
I have been rearranging my audio components, having recently added a new soundbar specifically for augmenting movie sound experience, only to discover that I am missing an optical-to-optical connecting cable in order to maximize the clarity I ordered the high-end soundbar for in the first place. So I rerouted it all back through my Edifier digital-to-analogue powered speakers for now until the cord arrives tomorrow.
All of which has been "time better spent", far as I'm concerned--including this totally irrelevant to Gator football even now, 10 minutes past kickoff and haven't even bothered switching over to whatever ESPN network it's on:
Today's game amounts merely to the latest version of the question, "Will THIS finally be enough??!"
Week 4 and I am so far removed, numbed by alienated, self-protective indifference that even if we were to somehow win this one I'd merely see it as "stalling the necessary AGAIN!"
I suppose I might monitor the score early on, but I have that low a level of "emotional buy-in" at this point.

 

[DRU2012]

To all our "guests", and to my online friends here in particular, I apologize for my lack of anything but negativity--but those of us who have arrived here came to it on and through a long, hard road:
We hurt because we CARE.

 

[Escambia94]

I cannot wait until Billy Napier is fired.

 

[Escambia94]

I can no longer get excited about a positive play. Just assume it will get called back due to penalty.

 

[Escambia94]

3rd and 7 because of penalty.

 

[Escambia94]

Move back we suck.

 

[DRU2012]

Just peaked in for a couple of moments: It's going pretty well as I feared--our D continuing to work hard, but as usual to so little avail thanks to the same baffling "BILL-LEAVE-IT!" offense.
See y'all in the bloody aftermath...

 

[DRU2012]

I'm already here in the first quarter, and having watched only a small part of THAT:
HOW MUCH MORE OF THIS WILL WE HAVE TO FACE??!

 

[DRU2012]

(Better I should pipe down, keep my Dread to myself, I suppose. Would LOVE to find out later that I tuned out and "MISSED ALL THE FUN!")

 

[DRU2012]

Our defense is wearing down--haven't played poorly--but with ZERO offense, this is what you get.
UM is executing the "middle 8" (last 4 minutes if 1st half, then receiving the kick to start the 2nd half and giving themselves the chance to score "coming and GOING"), and in the process likely EXECUTING US.
I don't need to see this--First and GAME with under 2 minutes left in the hslf.
Meanwhile, Gator offense has managed just 25 yards this half. 25 yards--and ONE FIRST DOWN.
Hopeless.

 

[Escambia94]

Sigh.

 

[Escambia94]

I believe in Billy Napier…I believe he should be fired.

 

[Escambia94]

No point commenting on Scott Stricklin. His contract keeps him in Gainesville until 2030 with a retirement gig afterwards.

 

[DRU2012]

DJ misses another receiver.
Then another penalty on 3rd down takes away the completion.
Who KNOWS what this offense might actually be capable of. Thet are poorly coached, trying to execute a flawed, unimaginative gameplan.
Just a despicable performance by the offense; I don't wanna minimize the disappointment of watching talented players somehow fail to perform up to their capability OR their own STANDARDS, the fact still remains: It sll comes down and BACK to the Coach.
He's getting go...and since we CANNOT slow this AD to play ANY part in choosing the next one, STRICKLAND MUST GO TOO.
Hardly "NEWS" I guess at this point...but here's tge difference: Given the situation on and OFF the field, PLUS in the locker room, if the buy-out money's there, why not pull the trigger NOW?
After all, IF you can somehow get the guy you want in now and he can get some semblance of "promising results" from thisvoffense with the games remaining from that point on, maybe you keep more of that currently underachieving talent, hold onto a significant portion of your pending recruits, and then "hit-the-ground-running" for REAL next season (like DIDN'T happen this time under Billy).
Sure, lotta "IF's" there--biggest one being question as to who is that "guy" and whether he's available (or willing to BE "available" for the opportunity to coach the Florida Gators) mid-season... BUT at this point, I'd rather look to all that and discuss its nuances than watch OR further analyze the current state of this team and how that continues to manifest on the field of play.
(They are now underway again. Miami gets tge ball begins to march the field. Our D, with no help at ALL from the offense, is still trying...but you can see them beginning to tire.
Ya can't win without scoring, Billy. And while we're on the subject of basic principles, the idea here, THE BOTTOM LINE, then, IS TO WIN.
All that other stuff you talk about, in the end it's just SMOOTH BLATHER. The players' parents seem to like it. On the field, without imagination or anything in the way of creativity or intellect, it continues to add up to SLOW DEATH.
Yes, I too have always LIKED Billy Napier...
But I am STARTING to DESPISE him now too.
But I dill leave that to another time, another thread.
I can't watch much more of this.
Will watch for a bit more, but probably will cut out soon--likely if (when?) they are the next to score.
Close, painfully "what-might-have-beens" turned "close losses" is probably the best this Coach can manage at this level, let's face it.

 

[DRU2012]

No point commenting on Scott Stricklin. His contract keeps him in Gainesville until 2030 with a retirement gig afterwards.

Are you saying we CAN'T fire him???
If that's true, we are completely f*cked!!!
I thought it was just another expense that certain individuals were grudgingly prepared to absorb!
That, and the continued impasse at University President replacement continuing to cloud these issues.

 

[DRU2012]

SOMEONE is gonna have to explain this last dogpile to me. I mean, I thought we at least ultimately had "Where there's a will, there's a WAY!" to see us through here in the end.
Without THAT there is no hope at ALL.

 

[Escambia94]

Just for fun I plugged the following into ChatGPT at halftime and the offense seemed to follow ChatGPT.

Pretend you are the offensive coordinator for the Florida Gators. The quarterback, DJ Lagway, is having problems with the Billy Napier spread offense. The star running back, Jadan Baugh, is not getting lanes to run. The offensive line is not performing well. Based on what you know of the Gator offense, what are the first three tweaks you would make to the offense at halftime if you are down 0 to 13?
Click to expand...

The response basically predicted Napier’s play calls in the 3rd quarter. I really think he can be replaced with an LLM.

 

[DRU2012]

I believe in DJ Lagway… I believe he should be benched.

Billy cannot DO it.
Anymore than he can admit he is "spread too thin" and that his play-calling is an open book (and an older edition at THAT).

 

[DRU2012]

Just for fun I plugged the following into ChatGPT at halftime and the offense seemed to follow ChatGPT.


The response basically predicted Napier’s play calls in the 3rd quarter. I really think he can be replaced with an LLM.

I actually am starting to believe that isn't very far from what he is DOING.
Now, ask ChatGPT to lay out a COUNTERPLAN that would amount to calling that series' OPPOSITE...THAT might be a gameplan worth considering from here...