OGT 2025 - Week 11: Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats

[Escambia94]

Lagway vs. Boley: Bowl Hopes on the Line in Lexington's November Fight Night​

The Florida Gators (3-5, 2-3 SEC) head to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats (3-5, 1-5 SEC) on Saturday, November 8, at 7:30 p.m. ET on the SEC Network. Both teams are scrambling for bowl eligibility with just three games left, making this a must-win SEC clash at Kroger Field. Florida comes off a heartbreaking 24-20 loss to rival Georgia, where they showed fight but faltered late, while Kentucky snapped a skid with a gritty 10-3 defensive masterclass over Auburn. The Gators hold a commanding 48-17 all-time series edge, including a 41-7 rout in Gainesville last year, but haven't won in Lexington since 2019. Florida enters as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5, per BetMGM, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives them a 61% win probability. Expect a low-scoring, physical battle between two middling offenses and solid defenses—Florida's urgency under interim coach Billy Gonzales could tip the scales.

Top 3 Players to Watch: Florida Gators​

1. QB DJ Lagway - The sophomore signal-caller has been Florida's offensive engine, completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,513 yards and 9 TDs across seven starts. His poise in the pocket will be crucial against Kentucky's front seven.
2. RB Jadan Baugh - Leading rusher with 611 yards on the ground, Baugh provides a reliable chain-mover (averaging 4.8 yards per carry) and adds 48 catches for versatility in the Gators' run-heavy scheme.
3. WR Tre Wilson - The explosive sophomore is having a resurgent season without Napier making him jog 50 yards before each snap. Now that Dallas Wilson (no relation) is out for the season, Lagway will depend on Tre to make big plays. His speed could stretch Kentucky's secondary if he finds space deep, especially if J. Michael Sturdivant is being covered on the other side.

Top 3 Players to Watch: Kentucky Wildcats​

1. QB Cutter Boley - The freshman phenom has thrown for over 1,200 yards on 105-of-158 passing (66.5% completion), with 8 TDs and low turnovers—his decision-making at home could keep Kentucky competitive.
2. RB Sean McGowan - Kentucky's workhorse back with 476 rushing yards and 7 TDs, McGowan's north-south style (5.2 yards per carry) tests Florida's run defense, especially in short-yardage situations.
3. WR Fred Farrier - Boley's go-to receiver with 302 receiving yards and multiple scores; his quickness out of breaks has been a bright spot in an otherwise inconsistent passing attack.

Statistical Rankings Comparison​

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack nationally, but Florida holds a slight edge in defensive efficiency while Kentucky boasts a marginally better ground game. Here's a side-by-side look at key 2025 stats (through 8 games, per TeamRankings.com):

Category	Florida Gators	Kentucky Wildcats
Total Offense (YPG, Rank)	339.0 (#97)	346.4 (#89)
Total Defense (YPG Allowed, Rank)	378.0 (#66)	367.3 (#55)
Scoring Offense (PPG, Rank)	17.4 (#122)	22.4 (#91)
Scoring Defense (PPG Allowed, Rank)	23.4 (#45)	26.8 (#76)

Florida's defense has been stingier against the pass (allowing just 200.5 YPG, #42 nationally), but Kentucky edges them in run-stopping (126.1 rush YPG allowed, #48). Offensively, the Wildcats average more points thanks to a balanced attack, but the Gators' inefficiency (bottom-third in big plays) has plagued them. The Gators get the benefit of a doubt only due to the tougher schedule.

3 Keys to Victory: Florida Gators​

1. Sustain drives on the ground: Baugh needs 100+ yards to control the clock and keep Kentucky's offense off the field—Florida's 46.8% run rate (#108) must improve against a Wildcats D that ranks #55 in total yards allowed.
2. Protect Lagway in the pocket: Kentucky's pass rush has 18 sacks (#62 nationally); clean snaps and quick releases from Lagway (sacked 14 times already) will prevent turnovers and open up play-action. Also, Lagway's fundamental footwork and read progressions turn to complete dogshit whenever he faces pressure.
3. Force turnovers early: Florida's secondary (10 INTs, #28) thrives on chaos—disrupting Boley on third downs could lead to short fields and flip the momentum in a game projected under 46 total points.

3 Keys to Victory: Kentucky Wildcats​

1. Lean on home-field defense: Kroger Field's raucous crowd and a unit allowing just 26.8 PPG (#76) must swarm Lagway early—aim for multiple three-and-outs to sap Florida's fragile offense.
2. Establish McGowan's run game: With 5.2 YPC, McGowan can wear down Florida's front (allowing 152 rush YPG, #78); staying ahead of the chains keeps Boley out of obvious passing situations.
3. Win the red-zone battle: Kentucky converts 85% of red-zone trips to TDs (#45); capitalizing on Florida's 78% defensive red-zone efficiency (#89) could turn field goals into game-changing scores in a tight matchup.

Prediction​

Florida edges out a hard-fought road win, 24-20. The Gators' superior defensive metrics (20th in SP+ adjusted defense) and Lagway's natural talent should overcome Kentucky's home cooking, but don't expect fireworks—this feels like a bowl-clinching grind for Billy G’s squad to build momentum heading into November.

 

[Escambia94]

After seeing the injury report I think I will flip the score prediction to 21-10, Kentucky.

Without Tre Wilson, and with VB3 and Aidan Mizell questionable, we could be starting Taylor Spierto at receiver. Just kidding. Even he is injured.

The lineup might be as follows:
- WR-X Tank Hawkins and Jackson Wade
- WR-Z J. Michael Sturdivant and TJ Abrams
- WR-Y Naeshun Montgomery (with TBD walk-on as backup, or only run “12 personnel” without a third receiver)

 

[DRU2012]

Yeah, that injury report is a KILLER…Now adding Tre pretty well destroys our last hope of mounting some sort of passing game (even assuming DJ keeps getting closer to a poor imitation of the guy we saw LAST season).
I’m sorry, but “caring” just sets me up for another 3+ hours of that rising pain in my gut.
I care too much—and even though I feel “reflective and philosophical” here mid-week, by a few minutes past kickoff (in Lexington’s chill damp of November, no less) my happiness and sense of well-being will once again be riding on the house of cards that is this gimped-out 2025 Florida Gator Football Team.

 

[Escambia94]

VB3 and Mizell are available to play! If we believe they are 100% then the Gators could pull this off. I will return my prediction to 24-20, Gators but I will not be surprised if Kentucky wins.

The updated lineup might be as follows:
- WR-X Aiden Mizell, Tank Hawkins and Jackson Wade
- WR-Z J. Michael Sturdivant and TJ Abrams
- WR-Y Vernell Brown III and Naeshun Montgomery

 

[DRU2012]

VB3 and Mizell are available to play! If we believe they are 100% then the Gators could pull this off. I will return my prediction to 24-20, Gators but I will not be surprised if Kentucky wins.

The updated lineup might be as follows:
- WR-X Aiden Mizell, Tank Hawkins and Jackson Wade
- WR-Z J. Michael Sturdivant and TJ Abrams
- WR-Y Vernell Brown III and Naeshun Montgomery

Well, that news (re the apparent "starting receiver line up") certainly returns that "puncher's chance" to our truncated arsenal!--and this against a UK squad more in line with "early-" rather than "late-Stoops-led" teams...
Can THIS DJ get the ball to them is the big Q.
We USED to beat such teams with a rubber stamp--but thanks to "Billy-former" WE are no longer "that team" either. I just cannot tell y'all what will result--only that I still find it hard to feel like it'll make a whole lot of difference in the larger sense: Even if you believe that "becoming Bowl eligible" will make any kind of notable difference to our relative future, do you really believe that, even WITH a win here, that we are about to win all but ONE of our remaining games to get to 6-6? Tennessee, Ol' Miss, and FSU after this: Would LOVE of course to WIN THEM ALL.
MY desires have somehow meant very little, have had infinitesimal effect in recent years.
Here's my current "modern, more modest Gator Dream":
We find a more explosive offense,
START SCORING MORE!!!

 

[DRU2012]

The part of all this that continues to baffle us has been the regression of DJ Lagway, ESPECIALLY in the very area he most impressed one and all as a (banged UP) freshman LAST season: finding and THROWING the LONG pass TO the right guy.
He’s repeatedly failed to do either as a sophomore: We’ve all had to suffer through repeatedly frustrating Saturdays, with all the same misses on display in all the usual places, online and on TV, culminating in the much replayed “bad-call-but-WORSE-UNDERTHROW” to Sturdivan that MIGHT have sent season, team and overall FEELING surrounding the future of BOTH down a whole new path (not to mention that of DJ himself, which as things stand remain somewhat in question).
As it is, of all the many things still left hanging, these same DJ Lagway questions like “What the hell happened?” and “What’s going ON?” do not just remain but continue to multiply and GROW LOUDER.
Certainly things like “nagging injuries” and the lack of proper full-participation that we all witnessed (even as it was explained away) both in retrospect consistently down-played, together HAD to have played THEIR parts in ALL of this.
More failures the result of inexperience in Billy Napier? At the very least, there sure appear to be more and more possible examples of same—AND a tendency to cover it over with slogans and vague platitudes.
Well, Billy’s gone silent, gone rich, and now JUST PLAIN GONE.
He ain’t talkin’—which is FINE, ‘cause (at THIS point, and for evermore) WE ain’t listening in ANY event.
But we continue to search for answers, because it all matters—AND FIGURES into whatever shape our future is likely going to be shaped, by whomever ultimately steps in to SHAPE it.

 

[Escambia94]

Story lines for today:
• Week 11 marks the 76th all-time meeting between Florida and Kentucky including the 35th matchup in Lexington.
• Florida has won 34 of the last 38 games overall against Kentucky since 1987.
• In Lexington, The Gators have claimed 20 of the last 23 meetings (since 1978) and 16 of the last 18 (since 1988). Despite that dominance, UF has lost two-straight road games at UK, last winning in Lexington in 2019 (W, 29-21).
• The Gators are 8-4 vs. UK since HC Mark Stoops took over in 2013, falling in 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Thank Dan Mullen for letting that streak from 1987 go.
• Gonzales is the seventh interim head coach in UF football history, following Greg Knox (2021: 1-1), Randy Shannon (2017: 1-3), DJ Durkin (2014: 1-0), Charlie Strong, Gary Darnell (1989: 3-4) and Galen Hall (1984: 8-0).
• Florida interim head coaches have gone a combined 14-10 following Gonzales’ Week 10 debut in Jacksonville.
• The UF defense has been elite this season, ranking 32nd in the FBS in scoring defense (20.5 PPG) and 43rd in total defense (340.5 YPG). Additionally, Florida ranks 11th in the FBS in first down defense (131), 29th in red zone defense (0.783), 35th in rushing defense (120.3), 48th in interceptions (seven) and 61st in passing efficiency defense (129.12).
• As a result, Florida enters Week 11 boasting the No. 28 overall defense in the FBS per PFF with a 90.8 grade, featuring the ninth-best tackling grade (88.6) and 23rd-highest run defense grade (91.6) in the nation (per PFF).
• The Gators are one of six teams in the FBS with a top-10 tackling and top-25 run defense grade, including one of two in the SEC (alongside No. 5 Georgia).
• On offense, UF touts the nation’s No. 17 red zone offense (92.3%), having scored on 24 of 26 red zone trips.
• Florida’s all-time, NCAA-record scoring streak currently sits at 469-consecutive games dating back to 1988

 

[DRU2012]

Man o man: Can you believe this is what it now takes for this offense (same one we so anticipated watching its supposed talent match up against the CREAM of the SEC) to even outscore KENTUCKY (THEMSELVES having a down year)???
It takes muffed punts just to put us in position to offset DJ's latest INT. Still no answer there.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators look good. Sometimes.

 

[DRU2012]

470 consecutive game scores, anyway.

 

[DRU2012]

Gators look good. Sometimes. View attachment 960

This year more like "from time to time"--and from time to time we surprise everyone (including ourselves) and do a bit better than that...

 

[DRU2012]

Can't recall a more "up'n'down" Gator team.
Of course, all the injuries (not to mention our former Coach) had a lot to do with that.
But the "Interim" guy ain't exactly turning the page either: NOW our once at least so far seemingly serviceable defense is making that anemic UK offense look like WORLD BEATERS.
I dunno how much of this I can watch.
Any kind of "shoot out" likely means lots of bad calls and DJ miscues--and we are missing so much of our first-stringers, ESPECIALLY among offensive playmakers.
I was looking for our "decent D" to keep us close in this one--but looks like THEY are still in the locker room!
(NOTE here, anyhow.)

 

[DRU2012]

If we can't beat these Mildcats, what chsne do we have at hastening the end of Lane's Rebels' season? We could EASILY lose out--including to FSU. Bad as things are, in experiential terms it COULD get worse.
And it continues to do so here: Florida FUMBLE.
OH, we are giving THIS one away.
We shut them down, here and now, or I am OUTTA HERE.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators look lethargic.

 

[DRU2012]

Gators look lethargic.

To put it lightly.
More like "comatose".
This was the last game on the schedule I THOUGHT we had a decent shot at winning
...only because UK is so weak--but at THIS point WE ARE WEAKER!
We haven't been a "GIVE UP" team up til now this season, but for whatever reasons that appears to be EXACTLY what may be happening here and now. I just cannot watch much more of this, guys. It is just too painful.

 

[DRU2012]

Gross! ANOTHER Lagway INT, terribly late long and high like an invitation! Then multiple missed tackles on the 55 yard runback.
I will shut up now.
Little more to say.
I have seen enough--probably SAID TOO MUCH.
(They will not rule in our favor on this fumble--"Ruling on the field..." blah blah blah)
Whattya know? We save a TD.
Now bring in Jones, if you truly aim to WIN here--if y'all ever seriously DID intend to TRY here in the FIRST place.
Down 17, um, znd DJ throws ANOTHER INT on his very next play from scrimmage.
What more is there to SAY?
SO now WE Intercept THEM on THEIR next play.
I can't watch this shit-fest.
No excuses: With our talent, even with half of it on the injured list we ought to have been able to handle THIS UK team. I am fairly disgusted THIS time around.

 

[Escambia94]

Yeah. I stopped watching several minutes ago.

 

[DRU2012]

I will check back--but if this "Coach" (who has little to LOSE) continues to stay with DJ, I cannot see myself suffering through another half like the one that WE were just exposed to.

 

[DRU2012]

Yeah. I stopped watching several minutes ago.

That final sequence of "walzing turnovers" (at the end of the first half) was possibly the most absurd joke of an exchange that I can recall in DECADES of watching Gator Football.

 

[DRU2012]

No one on this staff likely retained by next Coach.
Sorry--but GOOD RIDDANCE.