OGT 2025: Week 1 - #15 Florida Gators vs LIU Sharks - 8/30/25

[Escambia94]

Overview
The Florida Gators will play the LIU Sharks in the opening game of the 2025 college football season on Saturday, August 30, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET. The game will be held at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL. This is the season opener for both teams, with the Gators ranked at #15.

Scouting the Opponent
The Long Island University Sharks were 4-8 last year, 3-3 in the Northeast Conference. The Sharks are coached by Ron Cooper, who has a 12-22 record at Eastern Michigan, Louisville, Alabama A&M, and LIU. The Sharks only played one FBS opponent, TCU. That game was a 0-45 loss in Fort Worth, Texas. I expect the Gators to have their way with the Sharks in 2025. Players to watch for include the following All-NEC Preseason players:

QB Ethan Greenwood is a redshirt junior and 2nd team All-NEC who led all NEC QBs with 913 yards rushing and 921 yards passing.
WR Cory Nichols (5-11, 197) of Summer Creek, Little Rock, Arkansas appeared in all 12 games of his freshman season for a total of 285 yards. His major is computer science, and he likes romantic walks on the beach.
DL DQ Watkins of Lafayette HS and Northeast Mississippi CC was 2nd-team All-NEC with 41 tackles. At 6-3, 271, he is among the top 12 in the NEC in terms of tackles, sacks, and fumble recoveries.
DB Todd Bowles, Jr of Tampa Bay Jesuit, Tampa Bay, FL is a 6-1, 195 DB in his redshirt senior year. He played one entire game with a whopping 2 assisted tackles.
P Will Lynch is an Austrailian weighing in at 81 kg, and standing at 1.9 meters. He has an average of 36.2 yards per punt with a long of 53. LIke all Australians, he likes eating at Outback Steakhouse when he is not wrestling alligators, kangaroos, and sometimes wallabies.

Analysis
This might be the most over-matched FCS opponent to ever enter The Swamp. The Gators will have a significant advantage in all statistical categories. The 20% improvement will be on full display against a less-talented team, and the Gators should have an opportunity to rest the starters. The win probability is between 99.81 and 99.90. The stat line should look like the one from 2024 TCU Horned Frogs vs LIU Sharks.

Score Prediction
Florida 56, LIU 3

Predicted Stat	LIU	FLA
Score	3	56
Total Yards	150	500
Passing	70	300
Rushing	60	200

 

[DRU2012]

My goodness, this has SEEMED an interminable wait. Is it just ME?
Perhaps it has been the growing sense that "something special" has quietly been growing at UF Football under Napier, Lagway and company on both sides of the sidelines AND the line-of-scrimmage...
Whatever the reason, I continue to be strung out between that great excitement with what seems possible, and "High Anxiety" at all the unknowns and potential monkey wrenches.
All this promising talent and uniquely loyal cohesion, balanced poised to navigate the gauntlet that is "the consensus 2nd toughest schedule in all of D-1 College Football".
Really not much more to say about it here on a Thursday night, start of Week One, Labor Day Weekend 2025...
I'll surely have a bit more come Saturday:
"Lopsided" or not, I expect to thoroughly enjoy welcoming our team back, no.matter the opponent, in a raucous, sold out Swamp...
And of course even more to say, in anticipation and response to whatever unfolds in advance of and in the actual event of hosting a hyped up USF team NEXT Saturday.
But here comes Week One (FINALLY):
GO GATORS, as we embark upon what looks to be at the very least "the most excitingly PROMISING season as we have begun in many years"!
SO much I want to say--but I just feel it is best, NECESSARY that it wait until we see who we really are and what we've REALLY GOT...
Are we "there", or just "NEARLY there"?
And if the latter, will it be "nearly enough"???
Will this staff, and by extension the program they have been building, show enough success to GET the additional time required to erase that "nearly" and get us to the very top once more?
There's more to consider and discuss, but I'm going to leave it there for now.
This schedule has its opportunities AND its pitfalls; for the moment, I will trust staff and team to get it right, work up and INTO the proper frame of mind, body and spirit.

 

[DRU2012]

Well, here we are--and here we GO.
Some "Big Ones" going on in CFB around the nation and especially the SEC as things play out today and tonight--but this game ain't one of them.
It may be worth noting, however, that whereas most Gator analysts and fans alike in the weeks leading up to Week One had our first "REAL tests" not coming until Week THREE--On the road at LSU in ("the REAL") "Death Valley", I was among those who warned that this approach set us up for a dangerous "TRAP game" situation in Week Two, with a hungry USF Bulls squad coming to town.
After their eventual relentless beatdown of long-dominant Power-5 program Boise State Thursday night, hopefully this young and talented Gator team is now taking its Coaches' warnings and exhortations in more serious and timely fashion.
Fortunately, like THIS one (a TRUE "sure thing"), it'll be here in The Swamp...but whereas we could "sleepwalk" through Week One and STILL pull away from these Sharks, it turns out that game NEXT week will be MORE than "a BIT of an upgrade in competition"--But as long as we play OUR game, execute the "gameplan", do whatever is required for this team's big-picture growth and goals, the immediate future is indeed bright in Gator Nation...
Today will be a bit of a raucous Party--a "Welcome to the Swamp" celebration for our fans (not so much for the Sharks, obviously).
So much so that I really have little compunction against looking ahead...
So sure, enjoy this little "warm up"/ "appetizer", but show as little as possible--while doing whatever we can to begin preparing for the BULLS! We thought we had TWO "warm up games"; turns out we only have the one: WEEK One.
Meanwhile, this early-kicked Texas at Ohio State game so far in its way is looking as sloppy as most of the other games we've seen here in Week One. I expected mainly a "defensive struggle" a good part of the way--and so far that's what we're seeing, especially in the passing game: Lots of dropped balls on BOTH sides...
A lotta decent matchups between now and our kickoff Game One in the Swamp...I'm gonna focus on the games for a while: I am so glad to HAVE that "luxury" again. So glad to have college football BACK. But potentially even MORE glad to have a Gator team and program seemingly poised and promising to return us to our rightful place among the CFB Elite once more!
I'll be back before kickoff.

 

[DRU2012]

GEEZ!
This is weird...
All the schools that "experts" figured were our "likeliest wins" have looked stronger than expected so far in Week 1...a LOT stronger.
All have won or are winning, some against ranked teams favored to easily beat them--I mean, BAMA losing to the Noles at the half in the rain at Doak? Sure, for Gators that's normally a "Hope they BOTH lose!"-game, but somehow I find myself pulling for the Tide here.
Overall, our schedule is looking progressively MORE difficult as the minutes, hours, plays and scores slip by into recent history.
Upon which side of that historical ledger will WE find ourselves?
"Spot the ball":
In the end it is in our own hands as to where we'll land.

 

[DRU2012]

One minute before my app goes to The Swamp...

 

[DRU2012]

I almost felt bad for LIU kids, a fast scoop'n'score by Thornton giving us the quick lead just over a minute in...But after what I have seen happen to OTHER "big favorites" around the country earlier today, Hey--we'll TAKE it.
Now its finally DJ time.

 

[DRU2012]

Hard to say HOW good we really are in a gsne like this one, obviously.
But so far these Gators are doing exactly what a good team OUGHT to be doing against a significantly less-talented team. Already getting close to substitution time for the first stringers.
Main thing at a certain point is time come out of this HEALTHY for next week.
You can see where DJ needs to carxh up in various areas of his game. But Smack misses the FG. This is the kind of thing I saw all day elsewhere:
Poor 3rd down play, then missed very doable FG.
Less than impressive. But they need to go through this stuff early I guess.

 

[DRU2012]

D looks solid already, though.
Short field after penalty. Give DJ another chance here...
TURN HIM LOOSE, Billy!
Let him get the kinks out of his game THAT way.

 

[Escambia94]

Billy Napier has placed training wheels on the offense.

	LIU	FLA
Score	0	14
1st Downs	1	7
3rd down efficiency	0-3	0-1
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	22	73
Passing	0	23
Comp/Att	0/1	5/6
Yards per pass	0.0	3.8
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Rushing	22	50
Rushing Attempts	11	9
Yards per rush	2.0	5.6
Penalties	4-40	0-0
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	7:59	7:01

 

[DRU2012]

More questionable play-calling by Napier, I gotta say: Y'all are DOMINATING these guys; it's the perfect opportunity to let him wing it! He NEEDS to start devoting sharp relations with his receivers anyway. We've SEEN the run game is sound; it appears to be the passing game that needs work (not surprisingly).
So after missing the 40-yarder, Smack makes thd 56-yarder.
I remain concerned about what is still missing in our passing game. We are gonna a need it, and SOON (like NEXT WEEK, against USF as it tutns out.
Our defense is looking fine, the run gzme just needs a little more consistency so far on offense; but you can SEE the cost of all that time without working with the ones has been fir DJ's passing game. I know we wanna get him out if there early in this one as possible, but clearly he needs some more work with the recievers.
THAT'S more like it. Dime delivered to Brown.

 

[DRU2012]

Billy Napier has placed training wheels on the offense.

	LIU	FLA
Score	0	14
1st Downs	1	7
3rd down efficiency	0-3	0-1
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	22	73
Passing	0	23
Comp/Att	0/1	5/6
Yards per pass	0.0	3.8
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Rushing	22	50
Rushing Attempts	11	9
Yards per rush	2.0	5.6
Penalties	4-40	0-0
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	7:59	7:01

That well-describes it. I suppose it makes a certain sense--but DJ needs the work.
Smack misses another relative "shorty" (for him).
WTF? I mean, all he can do is go back to kicking those repeatedly in practice...For SURE there'll come a game we get him in position, where he needs to kick a 30-something yarder to pull one out.

 

[DRU2012]

ANOTHER "scoop" , but no score; got it deep though.
So we pass it in on 3rd and goal.
Like most every team to some extent this whole weekend thus far, we've seen various stretches and areas of sloppiness here in our first half of our first game--but thanks mainly to the defense we are up 24-zip halfway into the 2nd quarter. I think you give DJ at least one more series, then begin looking to sit him in the 2nd half.

 

[DRU2012]

I know he needs more work, but there's only so much he can gain going up against these LIU kids, I'm afraid--and you don't wanna press your luck against a progressively more frustrated young and out-classed team either.
Baugh is a weapon--one that is growing into something all the more powerful as we WATCH here.

 

[DRU2012]

All this stuff, even the screw ups, are valuable for DJ and the oassing game now. I wanna see him lead and complete one full end-to-end drive here.
And he finishes it off as ordered with a nice pass to his other tight end, Hansen.
DJ getting sharper, tighter and tighter as this half has gone on. Yeah, maybe time to sit him after the half now.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators appear to be without WR Dallas Baker, DT Caleb Banks, WR Aidan Mizell, LB Grayson Howard, LJ McCray and CB Jamroc Grimsley.

 

[DRU2012]

This Gator D can and WILL keep us IN games.
Thd offense has the talent and depth to reach its own "level of excellence", and if it does, LOOK OUT EVERYONE.

 

[DRU2012]

VB III !!!
Yeah, starting to see what we can be.

 

[DRU2012]

Guess Billy wants to throw it in so he can sit DJ...

 

[DRU2012]

Yes! Sturdivant gets HIS first.
Another sharp pass, no matter WHO you're facing. 38-0 to the half, and we'll now see the 2s and 3s in the 2nd half.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators are anemic on offense, but they are sitting a few players. No excuse for the bad pass blocking.

	LIU	FLA
Points	0	38
1st Downs	1	16
3rd down efficiency	0-6	2-5
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	36	243
Passing	20	120
Comp/Att	2/5	15/18
Yards per pass	4.0	6.7
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Rushing	16	123
Rushing Attempts	19	18
Yards per rush	0.8	6.8
Penalties	9-85	0-0
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	14:18	15:42