OGT 2023 Week 4: Charlotte at #25 Florida (9/23/2023)

[Escambia94]

#25 Florida Gators vs Charlotte 49ers
Overview
The game will be on ESPN+ at 7PM Eastern. The Gators are favored by 28 and the over/under is 49.5. This will be the first match-up between the mighty Florida Gators and the Charlotte 49ers. Charlotte is currently 1-2 with its lone win coming against SC State and its losses being against Maryland and Georgia State. The 49ers will either start Trexler Ivey or former Gator Jalon Jones, with both likely to see action as they try to find a winning formula.

Comparison
The Gators have far better athletes and much better statistics against much better opponents.

	CLT	25 FLA
Overall Rank	149 Sagarin	25 AP/Coaches; 31 Sagarin
Total Yards	338.3	418.3
Yards Passing	194.0; 7.86 YPA; 3 TD	244.0; 8.04 YPA; 3 TD
Passing Efficiency	DNQ	152.97 (42)
Passing Offense	(101)	(63)
Rushing Offense	(79)	(53)
Yards Rushing	144.3; 3.94 YPC; 4 TD	174.3; 4.55 YPC; 9 TD
Total Defense	(108)	(10)
Yards Allowed	422.0; 6.43 YPP; 9 TD/A	256.3; 4.90 YPP; 6 TD/A
Pass Yards Allowed	270.7 (110)	172.7 (24)
Rush Yards Allowed	151.3 (92)	83.7 (26)

The best player on the 49ers is a former Gator, but Ivey is the more traditional pocket passer. Jalon Jones is the leading rusher for Charlotte--out of the QB position. The Gators use a pro-style/ spread option offense with a 3-3-5 defense. The 49ers use a spread option offense and a 4-3/ 4-2-5 defense. The 49ers are coached by Biff Poggi who is in his first year as a head coach. He has been a head coach in school, but at the collegiate level he has been an assistant at The Citadel and Michigan. Charlotte defensive coordinator Ryan Osborn was a graduate assistant under Todd Grantham at Mississippi State (2016-2017) and Florida (2018-2019).

Season Leaders	CLT	25 FLA
Passing	11 Trexler Ivey 25/33 75.8% 330 YD 1 TD 1 INT 163.7 RAT 4 Jalon Jones 24/41 58.5% 252 YD 2 TD 3 INT 111.6 RAT	15 Graham Mertz 64/85 75.3% 693 YD 3 TD 1 INT 153.0 RAT 17 Max Brown 2/3 66.7% 0 TD 0 INT 133.9 RAT
Rushing	4 Jalon Jones 32 CAR 196 YD 6.1 YPC 2 TD 1 Durell Robinson 26 CAR 117 YD 4.5 YPC 1 TD	7 Trevor Etienne 41 CAR 281 YD 2 TD 2 Montrell Johnson Jr 30 CAR 148 YD 3 TD
Receiving	19 Jack Hestera 14 REC 194 YD 1 TD J Mack 6 REC 141 YD 2 TD B Kennon 6 REC 107 YD 1 TD C Weber 6 REC 59 YD 0 TD	WR-Z 1 Ricky Pearsall 20 REC 258 YD 1 TD WR-Y 3 Tre Wilson 12 REC 104 YD 0 TD TE 87 Jonathan Odom 8 REC 72 YD 0 TD WR-X 4 Caleb Douglas 6 REC 62 YD 1 TD
Defense	SS Wayne Jones 8 SOLO 13 AST 0.5 SACK WLB D. Knight 10 SOLO 9 AST 0.5 SACK 1INT MLB P Bemah 7 SOLO 12 AST 1 SACK SLB N. Hill-Green 9 SOLO 8 AST 1 PD RCB D. Balfour 9 SOLO 5 AST 1 PD	WLB Shemar James 8 SOLO 14 AST SS Jordan Castell 9 SOLO 11 AST 1 PD MLB Scooby Williams 8 SOLO 4 AST 1 SACK NT Cam Jackson 6 SOLO 3 AST 1 PD STAR Jaydon Hill 4 SOLO 4 AST 1 PD

Editor's Pick
The Gators should be comfortable handling this AAC team, and will likely find time to sit the starters after taking a 32-point lead. I predict a 32-10 victory for the Gators.

 

[DRU2012]

I want to see us play a good, clean game.
E-'s projection sounds satisfactory: Hit the 30s (preferably by the 2nd quarter), shut them out for most of that first half, substitute freely (though that could involve getting the 3 "suspended for the 1st half" guys (courtesy of the TENNESSEE game-ending "time-out fiasco") some game-reps in the SECOND half) and run out the clock.
I'd feel better with a little more lopsided a victory, maybe 45-7, 52-10...a product not so much of "running it up" as the natural product of a disciplined, superior squad executing from start to finish, successfully working on some areas that NEED that work, and just what happens when enthusiastic young back-ups get in that kind of game at home in the Swamp.

 

[DRU2012]

Troubling word from team sources so far is that Coaches are NOT real happy with the players' response thus far: Coach Napier himself noted at Tuesday's post-practice presser that he wasn't especially happy nor particularly impressed with the team's first full day back, preparing for Charlotte. There is widespread concern with signs of a return to "bad old habits" that have afflicted this team and program in the past--common with Mullen's charges, we saw it reappear repeatedly LAST season, where a decent win would immediately be followed by (sometimes MULTIPLE) disappointing, sloppily played losses.
This is exactly what he'd warned against in the happy flush of victory post-Tennessee: ie. That we "learn to react properly, HUMBLY, to success".
The one positive note here (and one I am not the first to mention) is that we DO face a "manageable test" in hosting Charlotte in the Swamp...in addition, Coach, staff and team leaders ARE presumably "out in front of" this danger--with time and opportunity to recognize, acknowledge and CORRECT such "past transgressions".
This team hasn't really "accomplished" a great deal yet here this season--but now has an opportunity to do so: We ALL can look ahead and COUNT, and with little in the way of outlandish imagining begin to see the possibilities that could easily begin to accrue in even a modestly-executed little run here, leading into Jacksonville and "The Cocktail Party"...
And that's as much as I'll say about all THAT for the moment--Just that Billy is rightly stressing the importance of humility, discipline and continued hard work now.
The resulting rewards will take care of themselves. These lessons unlearned have already HURT this team in the recent past:
It is time to take them to heart, not make them again.

 

[DRU2012]

Friday night:
So. This one ain't about "beating the 49ers"--at least it damn well better NOT be.
It really shouldn't be about the opponents for this one at all. The reason Billy voiced unhappiness with our apparent "practice ethic", the players' generally lackadaisical, confidently relaxed approach this week is precisely BECAUSE they really haven't DONE anything yet.
LAST season (first under Coach) the team would falter after wins. No WONDER he is hyper-sensitive to the behaviors that herald the likelihood of "more of the same"!
So this next one ISN'T about "beating Charlotte", as I say: It is about growing up, coming together, NOT beating themselves NEXT WEEK--when they go on the road against UK.
I won't bother giving y'all another dose of all the stuff Billy, Gator online commentators, and the many former-Gators who have flocked back to support and mentor the current team.
Just reminding you of what we need to see from them tomorrow, and why.

 

[Escambia94]

This team is not used to winning and they are very young. Last week Tennessee played 17 seniors, with most of them being named starters. Florida played 3 seniors, with maybe 1 being a named starter. Today the Gators will be starting the game missing the starting right tackle Dameion George Jr, starting left guard Micah Mazzccua, backup tight end Dante Zanders, and starting center Kingsley Eguakun. Mix in immaturity and the loss of 2 starters for a half and 1 starter for the game on the offensive line and it could get ugly for a bit.

 

[DRU2012]

This team is not used to winning and they are very young. Last week Tennessee played 17 seniors, with most of them being named starters. Florida played 3 seniors, with maybe 1 being a named starter. Today the Gators will be starting the game missing the starting right tackle Dameion George Jr, starting left guard Micah Mazzccua, backup tight end Dante Zanders, and starting center Kingsley Eguakun. Mix in immaturity and the loss of 2 starters for a half and 1 starter for the game on the offensive line and it could get ugly for a bit.

...AND we can pretty well COUNT ON it ALL to be noted and picked apart in EXCRUTIATING DETAIL by "the usual suspects" in the media...even IF the final score is ultimately the expected lopsided one (God help us if it is NOT!).
Yes: Just as in retrospect the FIRST GAME was prefaced by a number of factors (practical and psychogical) that made us ripe for a huge let down, so does THIS one...Fortunately, THIS opponent isn't near as talented as Utah--and WE are by now BEGINNING to find ourselves as a TEAM.
These differences, plus the fact that presumably most of the drawbacks ENTERING this one will as a matter of course be eased as the game goes on, SHOULD make the difference by the second half.
But given all the rest, we may well be crucified for the overall ongoing performance long before that--and NOT just by all the Gator Haters either, but by our own fickle "fans".
(Hell, I won't like it EITHER, and apologize in advance in the event of my OWN frustrated in-game hair-pulling!)

 

[DRU2012]

Speaking of "not beating themselves", I am watching Kentucky on the road at Vandy as sort of a scouting exercise on BOTH squads--and so far it has really BEEN a matter of the Commodores "beating themselves" up til now.
I mean, UK clearly looks the better team: Certainly Vanderbilt can't afford to hand ANYONE points the way they have with broken plays on both offense AND defense, falling behind the Wildcats 14-0 here at home.
Oops...'nother breakdown deep on defense giving UK 1st and goal inside the 5.
WE will have to be playing mainly mistake-free football to beat these guys at their place..."these guys" being the Wildcats--As for the Commodores, maybe they are still numb after the way the last game went for them, but after this at least the perception will be that we should BEAT them...but they're making Kentucky look like the "Number 2 Team in the East" here.
21-0...I have seen enough. I guess I didn't just want to "scout both teams; I suppose I sort of wanted to see Vandy bounce back, acquit themselves well in a big SEC home game.
The thing is, WE need to BEAT UK next week--begin to "restore order" in the East, from OUR point-of-view.

 

[DRU2012]

(Yikes! This is gonna be a LOOOONNNNG day!
Try switching over to OU at Cincinnati? Take a nap? Just in time to witness multiple missed tackles by Bearcats to let Sooners out of hole deep in their own end...MORE missed tackles by Cincy. The "NAP" sounds good about now...See y'all later.)