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Official Game Thread Week 7: Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers 10/15/22

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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Overview
It's Tom Petty Day in the Swamp as the Florida Gators take on the LSU Tigers in the Swamp and look to go 2-0 against Tiger teams. The Gators will be favored by 2.5 and the over/under is at 47.5. Kickoff will be at 6:00 PM CT/ 7:00 PM ET. This will be the first meeting between Brian Kelly and Billy Napier. Florida is 33-32-3 all time against LSU in a series dating back to 1937, but the Gators have dropped 3 in a row.

Honorary Mr. Two Bits will be our very own Mick Hubert! OH MY!


Keys to the Game
The Gators are #5 in the nation in yards per play, but only #100 in number of plays per game. The offense is ranked #49, and the defense is #100. On the bright side, the Gators have the #18 rushing offense. LSU is ranked #55 on offense, #27 on defense.

Season Comparison
These teams are relatively evenly matched.
LSUUF
PPG/F31.830.8
PPG/A19.025.3
YD/F, TOT428.8436.0
YD/F, Pass256.3222.3
YD/F, Rush172.5213.7
YD/A, TOT328.5412.8
YD/A, Pass193.7226.8
YD/A, Rush134.8186.0
TBD

The LSU Tigers share a loss with a common opponent, the Tennessee Volunteers. LSU lost 13-40 and UF lost 33-38. On paper the Gators fared better in their loss to a common opponent.
LSUUF
Sun Sep 4 vs FSU L 23-24Sat Sep 3 vs #7 Utah W 29-26
Sat Sep 10 vs SU W 65-17Sat Sep 10 vs UK L 16-25
Sat Sep 17 vs Mississippi Ste W 31-16Sat Sep 17 vs USF W 31-28
Sat Sep 24 vs NM W 38-0Sat Sep 24 @ UT L 33-38
Sat Oct 1 @ Auburn W 21-17Sun Oct 2 vs EWU W 52-17
Sat Oct 8 vs UT L 13-40Sat Oct 8 vs Missouri W 24-17

Key Personnel
Both teams have similar personnel with rosters filled with transfer players entering the program after firing previous coaches.
LSUUF
QB J. Daniels 121-176, 1215 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INTQB A. Richardson 81-145, 1182 YDS, 5 TD, 7 INT
RB J. Daniels 76 CAR, 359 YDS, 3 TDRB M. Johnson Jr. 46 CAR, 368 YDS, 5 TD
WR M. Nabers 28 REC, 370 YDS, 1 TDWR J. Shorter 15 REC, 334 YDS, 1 TD

Prediction
If the Gators can wear down the Tigers with its 3-back rotation of running backs, and if Anthony Richardson can limit braindead mistakes, the Gators can squeeze out a 26-23 victory. If the Gators crap the bed in this one, I will stop doing game previews.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
@Escambia94,
I cannot really fault your "prediction" here, E--...
Every varied approach seems to lead to a toss-up, a close decision where we'd HOPE the home field MIGHT tip it our way.
As for the numbers, they all appear finally to indicate that just going by what they say about US, our defense has been even WORSE than the weak one we expected, while our offense, while improved, hasn't been as much so as expected either.
Once again, "Got a bad feeling bout this one..."
Still, I just HAVE TO go with some kind of "push" in our favor on the first "TOM PETTY DAY" at home in The Swamp! Of all occasions, hosting LSU for this one is an opportunity to show them, show the college football WORLD how a Gator home crowd grants a "home field advantage" like no other!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
(One last thing:
Beyond everything that's been said about it up til now, somehow Anthony Richardson must sweep all that aside and rise to the occasion. Billy, teammates and anyone else who has his ear must somehow press the right buttons...Above all HE himself must reach down deep inside and pull out his best game for this one.
The present and future are lying at your feet, AR.
SEIZE THEM. Make THIS the moment, the TRUTH: Show yourself, show us all who you really are!)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is a trip down memory lane--highlights from LSU official game threads of years past!

Week 7 - #20 Florida Gators 42, LSU Tigers 49, 10/16/21: Richardson Shines in Shootout Loss
The Gators (4-2, 2-2) go into Death Valley to face the floundering Bayou Bengals of LSU (3-3, 1-2). As punishment for both teams under-performing this game has been relegated to the noon kickoff. Florida is favored by 10.5 and the O/U is at 59.

Florida leads the all-time series 33-31-3 (since 1937), but LSU has a two-game winning streak. The Gators can break the 17-17 series tie in Baton Rouge with a win this Saturday. Florida leads the series in the Swamp 16-14-3.

LSU's head coach is on the hot seat, their best CB, Derek Stingley, is out with a foot injury, their best WR, Kayshon Boutte, is out for the year with a leg injury, and their running game is in shambles. Usually that means that everything looks the opposite when they play the Gators, so I expect the Tigers to get their running game going against Florida because the football gods just hate the Gators. Maybe instead of throwing shoes we should be sacrificing shoes to the football gods. LSU is 0-3 when allowing more than 115 rushing yards, and Florida's running game is #3 behind Air Force and Army with 273 rushing yards per game. On the bright side, QB Max Johnson is having a great season--largely thanks to the confidence booster the stinking 2020 Gators gave him by letting him throw for 435 yards last year.

Florida still has an outside shot a NY6 bowl game as long as they stop shooting themselves in the foot and losing winnable games. I see the Gators avenging last year's loss 32-17.
We have all watched a lot of Gator football. We all know that football coaches are stubborn, and they pay the price for stubbornness by getting fired and changing jobs a lot. The only things that Mullen is missing given the template he is following is a co-OC like Brian Johnson, a co-DC situation like we had with Charlie Strong and Greg Mattison, and another rock star recruiter.
Finally:
Overall, I have a “sinking feeling” the “necessary moves” will NOT be made—and our team and program will PAY...and pay, and pay some MORE, for seasons, YEARS TO COME.
I HATE it, but I have a strong sense that it will be like this game, like the season itself has felt:
A helpless, sinking feeling, as we fail, slowly, in both the immediate and “big picture” sense.
I predicted a 32-17 victory against a team that was floundering without its star receiver, and they kicked our butts with both shoes, 49-42!

Week 15 - #6 Florida Gators 34, LSU Tigers 37, 12/12/2020: The Shoe Incident, or The Beginning of the End for Dan Mullen

On Saturday, December 12th, 2020 the #6 Florida Gators (8-1) defend the Swamp one last time this season by hosting the Bengal Tigers of Louisiana State University (3-5) under the lights at 7:00 PM. This game is set to air over ESPN with a very special guest Ms. Two Bits and Miss Florida 2012, Laura Rutledge. If you do not like listening to Sean McDonough, Todd Blackledge, and Todd McShay, I recommend you mute the audio and listen to Mick Hubert over WRUF on the Gator IMG Sports Network. The Gators are favored by 23 and the O/U is at 69.5.

The Bengal Tigahs are coming off one of their worst defensive performances in recent memory, a 17-55 beatdown at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide. In that game TJ Finley was 14/28 for 144 yards and 1 TD (72.7 QBR) and Max Johnson was 11/17 for 110 yards (71.3 QBR). LSU did manage 98 rushing yards, but a fumble did not help their cause. Against common opponent Texas A&M registered nearly identical stats as they did against Alabama, but with more interceptions on their way to a 7-20 loss. LSU managed an entire 36 yards rushing against the Aggies. Compare that against the Gators' 90 yards rushing against A&M and 312 yards passing in a much closer 38-41 loss and by the transitive property one could assume the Gators should have a good day against LSU. LSU's other common opponents include a 41-7 victory against Vanderbilt (back when they had Brennan at QB), a 41-45 loss to Missouri, a 52-24 victory over South Carolina, a 24-27 loss to Arkansas, and the aforementioned loss to Texas A&M.

The Fightin' Gators are 33-30-3 all-time against the Bengal Tigahs in a rivalry that goes back to 1937. The Gators and the Tigers have split the last two--a 27-19 victory in 2018 and a 28-42 loss in 2019 that was closer than the score shows. Florida leads the series in the Swamp 16-13-3 and are tied in Baton Rouge at 17-17.

Look for the Gators to spread the ball around, as they are the only team in the nation with three players with 8+ touchdown receptions (Kyle Pitts, Tre Grimes, and Kadarius Toney). Only the 1996 Gators were this diverse with Reidel Anthony, Ike Hilliard, and Jacquez Green. The Gators are #7 in the nation with 7.35 yards per play. The only other team from Florida that averaged more than 7.1 was the 1995 Gators at 7.4 yards per play. Last year the Gators averaged 6.47 yards per play, which was good for #16 in the nation. The last time the Gators were close to 7 yards per play was in 2009. With a struggling running game, you can bet the Gators are going to take to the air. Florida's 376.7 yards per game leads the FBS and puts them on pace to be #2 in Gator history to the 2001 team (405.2). That 2001 team was the only team in school history to lead the nation in passing offense. If Trask keeps on this pace he will shatter the Gator record for passer rating with his current rating being 190.5. Daniel Carl Wuerffel currently holds the UF record with 171.8, set in 1995. Trask's 38 TD passes leads the nation by 8 and is #3 in FBS history behind Houston's Andre Ware (40 in 1989) and Hawaii's Colt Brennan (39 in 2006). Trask is on pace to break school records held by Rex Grossman with passing yards per game (360.3 vs 354.2) as well as the aforementioned passer rating held by Danny Wuerffel. Kyle Pitts' 11 TD catches are the most by a Gator in one season since Jabar Gaffney hauled in 13 in 2001. Pitts is also #2 in the Gators' single season TD reception list. Although the offensive juggernaut has slowed down a bit these past few weeks, they are still #10 in points per game with 42.

I predict that the Gators will mount 500+ yards of offense on the hapless LSU Tigers and cruise to a 45-17 victory, assuming the Gators do not get caught looking ahead to Alabama.
I'm going to say it, remove Marco Wilson's scholarship! Have him play elsewhere.
No words, except that I am embarrassed to be a Florida Gator thanks to Marco Wilson. Those three turnovers and a shoe cost the Gators the outright SEC East crown, which is now shared with Georgia. The Gators have earned the McElwain Trophy and will now get massacred by Alabama next week. What a shitty way to end the regular season.View attachment 574
I predicted a 45-17 blowout, and the Gators threw this one away like a ratty old shoe, 34-37.

Official Game Thread: Week 7, #7 Florida Gators 28, #5 LSU 42 9/12/19

View attachment 459
In 2003, Ron Zook led the unranked Gators to a victory over #6 LSU in Death Valley. The Tigers were coached by Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, and Will Muschamp.
Back home late, with a drink and some “last thoughts”:
This was our high water mark for the season; now our goals and expectations must be pared down to match the realities of what is left on the table.
Now, there’s been a lotta talk about what’s still “out there in front of us”, even the stated idea that “EVERYTHING is still in front of us!”...to which I can only point out that while the IDEA of “assorted possibilities” has been and continues to BE noted, acknowledged and even ENJOYED in process throughout the remainder of our schedule and BEYOND, these all simply amount to “CONSOLATION PRIZES”.
While we may still achieve a certain amount, more than LAST year and potentially some necessary progression on our way to building towards our eventual return to acknowledged “General Greatness” and our place in the College Football Elite, we weren’t there to start this season (and we KNEW IT!), and at this point have only proven the point...It can be debated whether that proof came earlier, later or just about on schedule—but the main point is, we have WORK to do and progress to make, folks!
Any doubt has been removed, and any surprise in truth is the result of a certain amount of self-delusion before now.
So let’s suck it up, look at things as dispassionately as possible—and begin to engender a climate of positive change as we now RETURN to the matter of the building of a Champion in Gainesville, OK? It is what we ALL WANT, after all.
I predicted a 30-28 victory for the Gators, but it turned out to be 42-28, LSU.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is a real blast from the past that I found as I was cleaning up the forum OGTs (Official Game Threads)--the OGT for the 2011 LSU game: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/official-game-day-thread-florida-lsu-10-8-loss-41-11.14990/

Apparently I was smarter back then, because I did not offer up a pre-game score prediction. The Gators lost 11-41.
Okay, we had a VERY tough loss at home last week. This week we have a hell of a game coming up against a team with a GREAT defense. I really wish this game was at home because Tiger Stadium is just a crazy place to play.

I really want to be confident about this game, but it is going to depend a lot on our defense and how well our backup QB can play.

Chomp Chomp!
Brisset ("JBII") WILL START (Driskel , while there, didn't even dress, I'm told). Well. Fate seems to be INSISTING on us giving ALL our young QBs a good look this year. Strange, but maybe all for the best, eventually? Not what any of us had in mind, but it IS what we've got.
RUF-Radio-guys aren't reporting it as of yet, but I can assure you that unless they're lying to their own assistants, this is real. What they ARE talking about is how BIG the Alabama players are, bigger and stronger in every way than any team they've seen in some time, that "LSU is talented but..." they don't match up overwhelmingly with us like 'Bama over EVERYONE...they are clearly implying "something", noting that this differential "is raising questions", though they don't say with whom. Perhaps I'm naive, but that hadn't occurred to me until now, the "better living through chemistry"-angle. Don't want to make wild accusations just because they beat us soundly--are there any OTHER "signs"? Has anyone heard any whispers that might snowball?
I'm sure y'all are getting a kick out of the 'Noles' problems with WAKE FORREST (who just got a safety, and have a small lead), now. Lowered your sites a bit there, boys, in this, your "Big Year"? Still looking forward to the Swamp on Thanksgiving weekend?
...And hey E-: How about that Red River (not-so-much-a) Rivalry? Actually, their problems parallel ours rather closely, right down the line--except WE have our speedsters, while THEY have a nice power-back (that Fozzy is fast AND a load--and he'll be there next year). It'll be interesting to see how far they come how fast. It's a different approach: where we are transforming entirely not only our personnel but the KIND of team we are, Texas I think is mostly where they want to be, just really young and inexperienced. They're going to mainly stand pat, just plan on getting BETTER at EVERYTHING, with time, experience, and coaching.
OK, enough about everyone else (popping first Heiny), gonna get some wings and settle in for this one. I'll try to stay out of the way in-game unless I have something positive to contribute--or I just can't HELP myself! What--37 minutes to KO?
Please, let us not get clobbered like last week or like the Tejas Short Horns in the Red River Shootout.

Once again we are losing in the trenches, even when we bring the house with 8 in the box! Once again we are not wrapping up our tackles. Ron Powell looks slow. I have not been this frustrated with the Gators since...last year. ****!

Last year it took a trick play for LSU to beat us. This year, no such shenanigans will be needed.

Okay, trying to get optimistic...still trying...at least we look pretty in our blue jerseys even though we are the visitors.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
"BOTTOM LINE":
Here is a "Turning Point" game if there ever WAS one...
In other words, we WIN this game "OR ELSE", my friends...
Never MIND the final score or anything else, friends. Find a WAY.
Period.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Florida is #3 in the FBS with 6.4 yards per carry. Three Gators rank inside the top-seven in the SEC in yards per carry: RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (8.0, #2), RB Trevor Etienne (6.8, #4) and QB Anthony RIchardson (6.1, #7)
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
The main thing here, from MY P.O.V., is to gain the WIN--NOT merely for the sake of the season's W-L record, but much more in terms of the wider, historical trends involved here...
Y'all must be aware of my somewhat iconoclastic superstitious bent in these matters:
Already this season, our only two losses have come at the hands of teams and programs we have been regularly beating of late--Both Kentucky AND Tennessee have lately broken our once reliable (if at times somewhat illogical) winning streaks over them.
Now comes LSU, a team and program that, season after season, has tended to knock US off, in games where we were (rightly) favored but that somehow often turned on crazy wild reversals--single plays that inevitably surfaced at (for us) absurdly inopportune times.
Add to that the way their fans troll us in ridiculously irritating ways, and how THEY see this game as MUCH more a "big rivalry" than WE do, and their coming into the Swamp now, with similar records and similarly uneven performance game-by-game up UNTIL now, and clearly we BOTH have every reason to want and NEED this victory.
I just REALLY WANT THIS GAME--perhaps unreasonably so, out of all proportion to its actual objective "national importance" as far as the season, the rankings and/or our respective longterm progress is concerned.
On top of all that, they come to our house and are DISSING US ON "TOM PETTY DAY"!
We cannot let that stand.
WON'T BACK DOWN!
Geaux Gators!!!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Official visitors:
NameClassRating
FNL
Visit
Visit
Commitment
Desmond Ricks IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL) CB 6-1 170 0.9996​
2024​
99.99​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
CB (FSU)​
Cormani McClain Lakeland (Lakeland, FL) CB 6-1.5 / 165 0.9992​
2023​
99.92​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Joshisa Trader ATH​
2024​
99.72​
10/15/22​
CB (FSU)​
Jeremiah Smith WR​
2024​
99.72​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Keon Keeley Berkeley Prep (Tampa, FL) EDGE 6-6 / 242 0.9955​
2023​
99.55​
10/15/22​
Notre Dame​
James Smith DL 6-4 310 99.1450 + 29.15​
2023​
99.15​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
DJ Lagway Willis (Willis, TX) QB 6-2 225 0.9901​
2024​
98.50​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Elijah Rushing EDGE​
2024​
99.01​
10/15/22​
Jaquavious Russaw Edge 6-2 230 98.5878 + 28.41​
2023​
98.59​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Stacy Gage RB​
2024​
97.91​
10/15/22​
Jaylen Heyward S 5-11.5 180 97.8319 + 27.15​
2024​
97.90​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Jaron Hamilton Bucholz (Gainesville, FL) 6-1 / 188 0.9780
2023
97.80
10/15/22
TBD
Kelby Collins Gardendale (Gardendale, AL) DL 6-5 / 280 0.9685​
2023​
96.85​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Daniel Calhoun OL​
2024​
96.77​
10/15/22​
Aidan Mizell Boone (Orlando, FL) WR 6-2 180 96.5821 + 25.15​
2023​
96.58​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
John Walker Osceola (Kissimmee, FL) DL 6-3 / 310 0.9537​
2023​
95.37​
10/15/22​
UCF​
T.J. Searcy Upson-Lee (Thomaston, GA) DL 6-5 / 250 0.9344​
2023​
93.44​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Eddy Pierre-Louis DL 6-4 310 93.4175 + 20.07​
2024​
94.06​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Jordan Hall Westside (Jacksonville, FL) DL 6-4.5 / 300 0.9337​
2023​
93.37​
10/15/22​
CB (FSU)​
Treyaun Webb Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL) RB 6-1 / 205 0.9324​
2023​
93.24​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Xzavier McLeod Camden (Camden, SC) DL 6-4 / 324 0.9323​
2023​
93.23​
10/15/22​
CB (South Carolina 8/18/2022)​
Isaiah Nixon Lakewood (Saint Petersburg, FL) Edge 6-4 215 92.2422 + 22.11​
2023​
92.24​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Sharif Denson Bartram Trail (Jacksonville, FL) CB 5-11.5 / 170 0.9204​
2023​
92.04​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Jordan Castell West Orange (Winter Garden, FL) S 6-2 / 195 0.9187​
2023​
91.87​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Kamran James Olympia (Orlando, FL) DL 6-6.5 / 265 0.9115​
2023​
91.15​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Gavin Hill F. W. Buchholz (Gainesville, FL) DL 6-3 / 255 0.9108​
2023​
91.08​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Knijeah Harris IOL 6-3 335 89.1568 + 16.42​
2023​
89.16​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Creed Whittemore Buchholz (Gainesville, FL) ATH 5-11.5 175 88.3598 + 14.70​
2023​
88.35​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Bryce Lovett Rockledge (Rockledge, FL) OT 6-5 330 87.5833 + 12.99​
2023​
87.58​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Kendall Jackson DL 6-4 250 87.1852 + 13.76​
2024​
87.19​
07/15/22​
09/02/22​
10/15/22​
TBD​
Tyree Patterson Eustis (Eustis, FL) WR 6-2 175 86.5278 + 11.13​
2023​
86.83​
07/15/22​
10/15/22​
Florida​
Demetrius Knight Strong Rock Christian (Locust Grove, GA) 0.8431 / Georgia Tech​
2019​
84.31​
10/15/22​
TBD (Georgia Tech transfer)​

Update: 2023 5-star RB Richard Young (Alabama commit) added to the list of unofficial visitors.
 
Last edited:

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
( @Escambia94, )

WOW...
We have been hearing a LOT about all these pending visitors, prospective recruits that were expected to be making visits, "official" and otherwise, to the Swamp for this one.
But seeing the above list all laid out in DETAIL...
You have really outdone yourself here, E--.
Nothing could have better, more dramatically illustrated the breadth, the potential cumulative impact of so many coming for one big SEC home game, at such a pivotal moment in our current and future hopes, dreams and plans.
I believe the program, school and fans will rise to the occasion, aquit itself well on this, the first "Tom Petty Day" at The Swamp (and didn't THAT turn out to be fortiluitously planned??!).
And that only ratchets up the pressure for us long time, lately "long suffering" fans...But I don't care to take such a shallow, selfish view.
I'd PREFER to just enjoy a festive, positive atmosphere, to witness a well-played game.
Of course the TRUTH is, I want the WIN--BADLY!
No use trying to kid anyone at this point:
Too much "spillt milk/spillt BLOOD", too much HISTORY has been painfully shared to bother pretending "sportsmanship" transcends VICTORY at this point. Sure, I'd welcome a "well-played contest"--but above all we want, NEED a big win, in the end ANY WIN in this one.
I cannot pretend otherwise.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Only the beginning, perhaps...BUT:
"Along with/ON TOP OF" EVERYTHING ELSE at stake/going on at today's "Confrontation in the Swamp" is its actual "OFFICIALLY NAMED" TITLE":
"Tom Petty Day"
...What more need be added here?
At home in The Swamp, after a slew of crap-losses, All on progressively more ridiculous giveaway-losses (capped by the absurd "thrown shoe thing"--the one that arguably sealed Dan's fate???).
We just GOTTA win this one, pure and simple.
(=A first step on what amounts potentially at least to a long road back...?)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Fun fact: Spurrier was 14-1 against the LSU Tigers.
 

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DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
Big return to start things off.
Our ball at midfield.
But fact remains, the worst part of this Gator team at the moment is that we just don't KNOW what we are getting each week, coming in.
YOWIE!!!
51-YARD STRIKE AR to Shorter for the early TD!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Super Moderator
I can't help myself...Will this be The Game we've been waiting for?
 
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