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Official Game Thread: Week 6, #10 Florida Gators 24, #7 Auburn Tigers 13 (HC) 10/5/19

Discussion in 'Gator Football' started by Escambia94, Sep 30, 2019.

  1. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator



    This week's Homecoming match-up on ESPN College GameDay features the orange and blue Florida Gators versus the blue and orange Auburn Tigers. The Gators will wear 1960s era throwback uniforms--including classic black cleats! This uniform is the same style worn by Steve Spurrier from 1964-1966. The Gators have not worn this uniform since September 30, 2006, when they defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide 28-13.
    [​IMG]

    Auburn has won three in a row against Florida: 2011, 2007, and 2006, by an average score of 13.3 to 21.3. Auburn is 43-38 all-time against the Gators. Dan Mullen is 3-6 against Auburn as head coach, 2-3 against his friend Gus Malzahn. Fun fact: In 2007, Dan Mullen coached as offensive coordinator against Auburn the morning after having his appendix removed. The Gators lost that game on a last-minute Auburn field goal, and perhaps some drug-induced bad calls by Mullen in the first half.

    Auburn's offense under Gus Malzahn is somewhat similar to the offense Dan Mullen ran at Florida and the early days of Mississippi State. Here is their starting lineup:

    WR-X 18 So Seth Williams
    WR-Y Sr-Tr Sal Cannella
    WR-Z 12 Jr Eli Stove Jr
    WR-H 33 Sr Will Hastings
    LT 76 RSr Prince Wanjogho
    LG 77 RSr Marquel Harrell
    OC 54 RSr Kaleb Kim
    RG 64 RSr Mike Horton
    RT 71 RSr-Tr Jack Driscoll
    RB 28 RSo JaTarvious Whitlow
    HB/TE 99 Sr Spencer Nigh
    QB 10 Fr Bo Nix

    The Auburn defensive line is one of the scariest in FBS. Here is the entire defensive lineup:

    DE 3 Sr Marlon Davidson
    NT 94 Jr Tyrone Truesdell
    DT 5 Sr Derrick Brown
    BUCK 1 Jr Big Cat Bryant
    OLB 91 RJr Nick Coe
    LB 10 Fr Owen Pappoe
    LB 33 Jr KJ Britt
    CB 4 Jr Noah Igbinoghene
    STAR 6 So Christian Tutt
    SS 24 Sr Daniel Thomas
    FS 20 RSr Jeremiah Dinson
    CB 13 RSr Javaris Davis

    The Gators are still looking for an identity on offense as the offensive line continues to struggle, which in turn has hurt any growth in the running game. Here is the offense:

    WR-X 12 Sr-Tr Van Jefferson / 15 RFr Jacob Copeland
    WR-Y 89 Sr Tyrie Cleveland/ 8 Jr-Tr Trevon Grimes / 83 RJr Rick Wells
    WR-Z 10 RJr Josh Hammond/ 16 Sr Freddie Swain
    LT 72 RJr Stone Forsythe / 76 RFr Richard Gouraige
    LG 61 RJr Brett Heggie / 77 Fr Ethan White
    OC 66 RSr Nick Buchanan / 50 RJr Tanner Rowell
    RG 67 RFr Christopher Bleich / 75 RSo TJ Moore
    RT 56 RJr Jean Delance / 70 Fr Michael Tarquin
    TE-H 84 So Kyle Pitts / 7 RJr Lucas Krull / 88 RSo Kemore Gamble / 81 RFr Dante Lang
    QB 11 RJr Kyle Trask / 5 RFr Emory Jones
    RB 2 Sr Lamical Perine / 20 RSo Malik Davis / 27 So Dameon Pierce / 24 RFr Iverson Clement

    The Gator defense has performed well despite not being at 100% for most of the season:

    DE 92 RSr Jabari Zuniga / 17 RSo Zachary Carter / 90 RFr Andrew Chatfield
    NT 55 Jr Kyree Campbell / 98 RSr Luke Ancrum / 56 Jr Tedarrell Slaton
    DT 88 RSr-Tr Adam Shuler / 91 RJr Marlon Dunlap
    BUCK 58 Gr Jonathan Greenard / 7 RJr Jeremiah Moon
    MIKE 33 Sr David Reese II / 41 RSo James Houston IV / 34 RSo Lacedrick Brunson
    MONEY 51 So Ventrell Miller / 30 So Amari Burney
    STAR 21 So Trey Dean / 30 So Amari Burney
    LCB 1 Jr CJ Henderson / 23 Fr Jaydon Hill
    SS 13 Jr Donovan Stiner / 31 Jr Shawn Davis
    FS 29 Sr Jeawon Taylor / 2 Jr Brad Stewart
    RCB 2 So Marco Wilson / 5 Fr Kaiir Elam

    The Gator statistical leaders include:
    • QB Kyle Trask 51/ 66 (77.3%) 647 YDS 9.8 YPA 5 TD 2 INT 178.6 RAT (#13 FBS, #4 SEC)
    • LB Jonathan Greenard 11 T 6.5 TFL 1 INT 4.0 SK (#1 SEC TFL, #1 SEC SK, #10 SEC INT)
    • WR Kadarius Toney 3 REC 72 YDS 24 YPC (#7 FBS)
    The Gator offense is ranked #54 (#43 scoring) and Auburn's is ranked #36 (#24 scoring).
    The Gator defense is ranked #17 and Auburn's is ranked #33.
    The Gators are ranked #15 in the Sagarin ratings (85.55), 0-0 vs top 10, 1-0 vs top 30.
    The Tigers are ranked #6 in the Sagarin ratings (93.19), 1-0 vs top 10, 3-0 vs top 30.

    The Gators should have 1 LCB Jr CJ Henderson and 92 DE RSr Jabari Zuniga back from injury. Auburn is the hottest team in the SEC right now with quality wins over Oregon (27-21), Texas A&M (28-20), and Mississippi State (56-23). This game might be the first real test for the Gators, but it might be the first game with a healthy roster. Based on FPI, Auburn has a 53.2% chance of a win. Before Auburn's victory over Mississippi State, Florida was projected to win at 53.1%. If the Gators can drag the Tigers into a sloppy, low-scoring game, they can pull off the upset in a close one, 24-21. If Auburn really is that good, then expect a loss at home, maybe 14-21.
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Scouting the opponent:
    Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn developed his version of the spread as a high school coach and as offensive coordinator at Arkansas (2006), Tulsa (2007-2008), and Auburn (2009-2011) before somewhat modifying the offense as a head coach at Arkansas State (2012) and Auburn (2013-present). Back in 2007, Malzahn visited the Florida Gators and added some single-wing and option concepts from Urban Meyer's/ Dan Mullen's Utah/ Florida spread (technically, spread-option).

    Auburn's "Fast and Furious Offense" (as it was known at one time) is based on a two-back (also run with one-back and a tight end/ H-back), play-action offense that maintains constant pressure on opposing defenses by constantly running at a 2-minute pace. Like the Utah/ Florida spread-option, the Auburn offense adjusts its mix of passing and running based on opposing defensive alignment, and it depends on misdirection in order to force the defense into changing its adjustments. As a spread offense, Auburn will stretch the field both horizontally and vertically using the zone read, speed option, and Power G option. Also like Florida, Auburn will use unusual formations, and will run most of its playbook out of most formations.

    Twins Utah Patriot.png
    Auburn still runs variations of "Twins Utah Patriot", which is the basic look for both Auburn's and Florida's older spread-option, zone-read. Mullen has since modified this formation with run-pass option (RPO) out of Twins Patriot Spot. If the Tigers run this play consistently, they are going to pinpoint the Gators' strong safety (SS 13 Jr Donovan Stiner / 31 Jr Shawn Davis) or STAR (21 So Trey Dean / 30 So Amari Burney) with their WR-Z (12 Jr Eli Stove Jr) or TE-H (HB/TE 99 Sr Spencer Nigh). The Grantham defense might nullify this match-up by rotating out of man-to-man defense and moving MONEY (51 So Ventrell Miller / 30 So Amari Burney) to the line of scrimmage and rotating SS or STAR into coverage. Note that when Florida runs this play, you can expect screen passes and some West Coast Offense variations.

    Auburn will also run "Trey Patriot", or, the inside zone spread-option with RB (28 RSo JaTarvious Whitlow) similar to Florida's Tebow-to-Hernandez or Tebow-to-Harvin play up the gut after blocking SAM (MONEY 51 So Ventrell Miller / 30 So Amari Burney). I am not sure if Auburn has run Trey Patriot with the TE-H (HB/TE 99 Sr Spencer Nigh) as Florida did from 2005-2010, but it would be an easy adjustment for them.

    Twins Utah Cowboy.png

    When Auburn runs a jet-sweep, it will likely be out of what used to be known as "Twins Utah Cowboy". I would imagine the name of the play has changed as Malzahn has adapted the old Utah/ Florida play, but the concept is the same: run the jet-sweep and option to the jet-back (WR-Z 12 Jr Eli Stove Jr or WR-H 33 Sr Will Hastings) or the RB (28 RSo JaTarvious Whitlow). Auburn can also fake the option at the mesh point and pass out of this concept. Auburn will run this play in order to stretch the field horizontally, or to set up screen passes or wheel routes.

    I do not anticipate Auburn coming out and showing pass, but if they do, it will likely be out of "Twins Pink Patriot" or "Twins Pink Cowboy". The final variation that I will go over is the pure spread variation of the Auburn spread-option, "Spread 30", "Twins 93", "Deuce 23" and "Trips". Those formations are more advanced, but the short description is that it will look less like a spread-option and more like a spread. Expect these plays if Auburn sees a weakness in the secondary and Florida has bought into the run-first plays. Expect plenty of screens forcing the Gators into 3rd-and-Grantham.
     
  3. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    I know there was a story that Dan Mullen had surgery and a day later coached the Auburn game in 2007. More than likely a big mistake especially in the final Gator drive when they went three and out and Auburn drive down the field to get that game-winning field goal. Unsure if a 100 perfect Mullen would have been better but can't help but think. I give the Gators a slight edge. It might be one of the toss-up games really.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    You can find his interview from Monday where Dan Mullen tells the story of coaching the Auburn game maybe 12 hours after appendix surgery. The doctor that performed the surgery had advised against Mullen coaching, and the doctor later told Mullen that he called a bad game.

    To be honest, it was a sloppy game for the Gators. They out rushed the Tigers, but penalties and turnovers killed them. Tebow and Harvin both had off days.

    I think this year’s game will play out in reverse. The Gators will be sloppy, the run game will fail, but a last minute field goal will save the day.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Gator quarterback depth chart:
    • X. #13 Feleipe Franks 6-6 238. RJR. Wakulla High School. Crawfordville, Florida. Out with injury.
    • 1. #11 Kyle Trask 6-5 239. RJR. Manvel High School. Manvel, Texas.
    • 2. #5 Emory Jones 6-0 200. RFR. Heard County High School. LaGrange, Florida.
    • 3. #17 Nick Sproles 6-2 211. RJR. Winter Park High School. Winter Park, Florida.
    • 4. #9 Luke Matthews 5-9 166. FR. Gainesville High School. Gainesville, Florida.
    • 5. #19 Jack Ruskell 6-3 200. SO. Libertyville High School. Libertyville, Illinois.
    Tiger quarterback depth chart:
    • 1. #10 Bo Nix 6-2 207. FR. Pinson Valley High School. Pinson Alabama.
    • 2. #1 Joey Gatewood 6-5 233. RFR. Bartram Trail High School. Jacksonville, Florida.
    • 3. #14 Malik Willis 6-1 193. JR. Roswell High School. Atlanta, Georgia.
    • 4. #15 Wil Appleton 5-11 194. SR. Albertville High School. Albertville, Alabama.
    • 5. #24 Cord Sandberg 6-3 229. RFR. Manatee High School. Bradenton, Florida.
     
  6. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Fun fact: Auburn is Florida’s oldest, continuous SEC rival. Their first game was October 12, 1912 when they were both in the Southern Conference . The Tigers won, 13-27.

    Side note: Florida played South Carolina earlier that year, but USC was not a member of the SEC until 1992.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
  7. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Fun fact: Auburn WR Matthew Hill and Florida DB Trey Dean used to train together at the same football academy. There is some footage of the two practicing against one another, where it shows that Trey has better technique as an outside CB or a safety. Dean will not have to play inside CB with CJ Henderson back in the lineup, but if Auburn's offense schemes a way to draw Dean inside then he could be a liability in coverage unless something clicks.
     
  8. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Ye GODZ, err I hope ur RIGHT on this one, laddie!
     
  9. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    One thing above all I am noticing about MYSELF and my attitude towards this one:
    I just cannot follow or fathom the various arguments and analyses regarding how this game is likely to turn out!
    I mean it--it all rings completely hollow and off the mark...All I can chalk it up to, finally, is the overwhelming impression that this will be a good ol'-fashioned SNOT-KNOCKER, where the TOUGHER, NASTIER squad comes out, asserts its will and wins it late. Period.
    I mean it. Simple as that. Ain't gonna be pretty. Ain't gonna be much in the way of "strategy and tactics". Oh, they'll frame the general fortunes of each team in the course of a long day of bangin' heads, but in the final analysis I think it'll just be determination and hat-on-hat, sharp'n'clean hits on the guy in front of you, wrap 'em up in sound tackling FOOTBALL that carries this day.
    About time we handled OUR business along these lines this season too--been WAY too many "flashy misses" all AROUND college football lately, I've noticed--and our otherwise talented and often high-flying D has been amongst the worst offenders (or maybe that's just 'cause THAT'S who I've been mostly watching!).
    Anyway, we're getting back a passle of our best back there, and I expect them to make their presence KNOWN AND FELT.
    Should they rise to the occasion, and Trask & Co. continue to improve and widen their use of Mullen's playbook, well, then we might just have a good shot in this one.
     
  10. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Here is a quick rundown of the statistical ranking of the two teams.
    Auburn
    • Scoring offense: 38 ppg (#24) - advantage Auburn
    • Scoring defense: 17.2 ppg (#22) - advantage Florida
    • Passing offense: 7.8 ypa (#51) - advantage Florida
    • Rushing offense: 5.3 ypc (#25) - advantage Auburn
    • Red zone TD%: 70.83% (#34) - push
    Florida
    • Scoring offense: 34 ppg (#43)- advantage Auburn
    • Scoring defense: 8.8 ppg (#5) - advantage Florida
    • Passing offense: 9.3 ypa (#14) - advantage Florida
    • Rushing offense: 4.36 ypc (#71) - advantage Auburn
    • Red zone TD%: 69.57% (#38) - push
    Here is a rundown of their games to this point.
    #7 Auburn
    • vs #13 Oregon 27-21
    • vs Tulane 24-6
    • vs Kent State 55-16
    • @ #25 Texas A&M 28-20
    • vs Mississippi State 56-23
    Auburn's schedule: @ #10 Florida, @ Arkansas, @ #5 LSU, vs Ole Miss, vs #3 Georgia, vs Samford, vs #1 Alabama. Auburn gets a lot of respect for throttling Mississippi State, and finding a way to win against aTm. The caveat is that Mississippi State offense and defense have dropped from the top-20 last year to the bottom 10 this year. Bo Nix has been improving steadily over the course of the season, and the run game is consistently stout. The Auburn defensive line is probably the best in NCAA.

    #10 Florida
    • vs Miami 24-20
    • vs UT Martin 45-0
    • @ Kentucky 29-21
    • vs Tennessee 34-3
    • vs Towson 38-0
    Florida's schedule: #7 Auburn, #5 LSU, @ South Carolina, vs #3 Georgia, vs Vanderbilt, @ Missouri, vs FSU. Florida gets a lot of respect for Kyle Trasks's performance in relief of Feleipe Franks against Kentucky. Statistically Trask has performed as well as Franks, but the run game is slightly better with him under center. The Gator secondary has not looked like DBU due to injuries, and a general lack of discipline in tackling. The Gator defensive line causes the most havoc in NCAA, and should get better as the secondary regains full health. Overall, the Gators have played down to competition, but the new players seem to do better than their regular starter counterparts--and this is likely the source of hope for the Gators.

    Given how closely matched these teams are, and their different growth and injury/ health paths, it is very hard to predict this game. Using the data above one could argue that Auburn will win by less than a touchdown, or that Florida will win by less than a touchdown. Very few analysts expect a high scoring game, but it could become one if there are fumbles.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2019
  11. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    So, in summation--you've got no real idea or feel for the outcome here either, right E-? Who loses, or how badly...
    Basically then, it'll prob come down to a breakOUT or a breakDOWN late.
    How one feels about it then is reduced to how you happen to feel at any particular moment. The stats simply don't neatly separate these two heading into Saturday. Aw, HELL--Might as well just start drinking and hope for the best!
     
  12. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    • Like Like x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  13. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Exactly. The Gator team today is not the same one that struggled to victory over Miami and Kentucky. Today’s team is not the same one that beat Towson and Tennessee without a running game. If I had to draw comparisons I would say that the 2019 Gators with Feleipe Franks in week 1-3 were like the 2012 Gators under Jeff Driskel. In week 3-5 under Trask the Gators were like the 2015 Gators under Will Grier and Treon Harris. Who knows what we will compare week 6 Gators against?
     
  14. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Well, on "SEC Now" this morning Doerring just picked Auburn as "the current Number 1 in the nation--based JUST on performance thus far THIS YEAR
    ...Chisic at least agrees "they have the best defense"...and so on and so forth etc etc etc...
    Look: To me, especially against the backdrop of all the OTHER stuff these same guys are saying about all the other teams as they discuss today's games and the AP Top Ten and so on and so fortb etc etc etc...
    I mean, how to make head or tail of all this??? Hey--I've got an idea:
    How bout we settle back and see what the RESULTS are of TODAY'S GAMES???
    THESE guys at least seem to be solidifying around the idea that Florida is sbout to "run into a solid wall", the "questionable Florida running game" about to crush itself against the "solid violent mass that is the Auburn Defense"("This may be the best defense in the country.").
    OK. Maybe so. I kinda think OUR D aint so bad either, but maybe these guys are RIGHT: Point is, we will know soon enough. That's still a very young and inexperienced QB going uo against OUR defense; meanwhile, OUR QB has shown steely calm and reserve since stepping in for Franks.
    It may turn out exactly as they say--but the opposite could ALSO turn out to be the case--which pretty well encapsulates this ehole season thus far, for the whole SEC and beyond. Lets see what kind of landscape we are looking at in college football after this werkend fully plays out.
     
  15. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Oooohh--I kinda LIKE the idea of that 2nd incarnation you invoke above, the "Will Grier/Treon Harris" version: I think we coukd win this game with THAT offense. But your underlying point is the main one, best embodied I'm afraid (as are you, I suspect) by the plaintive cry, "WHO THE F*CK KNOWS???!!!"
     
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  16. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    ME, I'm gonna get a "mellow going" here slowly over the course of the day, try and just relax and let this one come to US!
    This is quite literally "the turning point" of the season right here, right now.
    Win, and who knows what can be achieved; lose, and it's time to tone down our expectations, enjoy what growth and progress we can achieve as we build towards NEXT year.
    Gotta admit, it FEELS like the latter is more realistic... BUT: This is that magic point when anything is still POSSIBLE.
    (This dufus from "Marty & McGee" just picked Nix as the "more reliable, better prepared quarterback" whom he "trusts more against the opponent's defense"...You see? That is exactly where I think OUR best hope for victory lies, in that kid's inexperience against our best defenders coming back NOW! I'M telling ya: opinion is ALL OVER THE PLACE for this one...)
    I'll "see" y'all here in a few hours; we'll "face the music" together then!
     
  17. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    (BTW:
    Where do you s'pose these folks at College Game Day are set up? Kinda looks like the center/path-crossing on the Quad, library to their right, carillon etc behind/to their left, GPA forward/right as you leave the quad...Of course, it has been a few years, so I could be WAY off! Anyone have a better bead on it?)
     
  18. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    This really sucks:
    Here we are on our campus, and I CANNOT ENJOY IT! Nope. Just gonna havta tune it over to a movie for a coupla hours I guess.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    67498F66-5EA2-470D-A744-88A2FC6387A7.jpeg

    Look for this sign on Game Day. I saw this on Reddit, but I cannot figure out how to embed this from Reddit. This was posted by /u/thebigggfish on /r/FloridaGators.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  20. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Fun fact: In 1976, the war eagle mascot drew a personal foul penalty when it attacked Gator receiver Wes Chandler after scoring a touchdown.
     

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