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Official Game Thread: Week 3, #9 Florida Gators 29, Kentucky Wildcats 21 9/14/19

Discussion in 'Gator Football' started by Escambia94, Sep 11, 2019.

  1. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The Orange and Blue Fightin' Gators are fresh off the 45-0 victory over the Blue and Orange Skyhawks and are up two spots in the polls. The Gators are currently riding their longest losing streak against the Wildcats since 1986. Florida has not lost back-to-back games against Kentucky since 1977-1976 when the 'Cats finished #18/19 at 8-4 (4-2) and #6 at 10-1 (6-0). Florida was 8-4 (4-2) and 6-4-1 (3-3) in those two years. Last year, Kentucky finished at #11 after going 10-3 (5-3), which was their best finish since Bear Bryant brought them to an 11-1 (5-1) record and a Sagarin virtual #1 ranking in 1950.

    Speaking of Sagarin, the Florida Gators are #17 in the Sagarin rankings, and Kentucky is at #34. Florida already has 15 sacks, which leads all of FBS. The Gators are also #2 in tackles for loss. DE Jabari Zuniga leads the SEC with 3 sacks and 4.5 TFL, and is tied for 6th and 3rd nationally in those categories. Florida is the only SEC team with multiple players having 3.5 TFL (Jabari Zuniga and Jeremiah Moon), and is the only SEC team with four players having 1.5+ sacks (Jabari Zuniga, Jonathan Greenard, Ventrell Miller, and Trey Dean III). Note that Miller earned 1.5 sacks from the second level as a linebacker, and Dean earned his 1.5 sacks from the third level as a defensive back! UF has three explosive passing plays of 60+ yards already this year, which is its highest since finishing 2016 with three of those explosive plays in a full season! QB Feleipe Franks has thrown for 250+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. So far in 2019 Franks is #6 in completion percentage (42 of 43, 77.8%) for all attempts, or #3 for players with 40+ attempts. Against UT-Martin, Franks finished with the highest completion percentage by a Gator QB (25 of 27, 92.6%), and became the first FBS QB since UCF's McKenzie Milton to complete over 90% of his passes with 25+ attempts. Franks' 2018 campaign was the best by a QB not named Tebow since Danny Wuerffel graduated. Franks ranked #19 nationally with 31 passing touchdowns, and was #9 for all touchdowns responsible for. He was also #17 in touchdown-interception ratio (24 TDs: 6 INTs, 4.00). Only Tebow did it better since 1996 with 5.33, 7.50, and 4.20 ratios in 2007-2009. DE Jonathan Greenard is 1-1 against Kentucky from his days at Louisville (he did not play in the 2015 or 2018 games, or else that would put him at 2-2).

    Kentucky will be without their starting QB, Terry Wilson. Troy transfer and Pensacola native Sawyer Smith is a better passer than Wilson, and is an adequate runner--but not at Wilson's level.

    Dan Mullen is 8-2 against Kentucky, and in his last 3 seasons at MSU he put up, 42, 40 and 45 points against the Wildcats.

    Dan Mullen (average score 40-22)
    • October 30, 2009 Lexington, KY Mississippi State 31–24
    • October 29, 2010 Starkville, MS #23 Mississippi State 24–17
    • October 29, 2011 Lexington, KY Mississippi State 28–16
    • October 6, 2012 Lexington, KY #20 Mississippi State 27–14
    • October 24, 2013 Starkville, MS Mississippi State 28–22
    • October 25, 2014 Lexington, KY #1Mississippi State 45–31
    • October 24, 2015 Starkville, MS Mississippi State 42–16
    • October 22, 2016 Lexington, KY Kentucky 40–38
    • October 21, 2017 Starkville, MS Mississippi State 45–7
    • September 8, 2018 Gainesville, FL Kentucky 27-16
    In that same period, Florida has managed to keep the win streak alive against Kentucky with three different head coaches. Home games are in bold print.

    Jim McElwain (average score 29-14)
    • September 23, 2017 Florida 28-27
    • September 10, 2016 Florida 45-7
    • September 19, 2015 Florida 14-9
    Will Muschamp (average score 33-12)
    • September 13, 2014 Florida 36-30OT
    • September 28, 2013 Florida 24-7
    • September 22, 2012 Florida 38-0
    • September 24, 2011 Florida 48-10
    Urban Meyer (average score since Mullen left 45-11, 46-19 while Mullen was OC)
    • September 25, 2010 Florida 48-14
    • September 26, 2009 Florida 41-7
    • September 25, 2008 Florida 63-5
    The last time Florida scored more than 50 points against Kentucky, Dan Mullen was the offensive coordinator.

    Watch the play-by-play on ESPN at 7 EDT/ 6CDT featuring Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Todd McShay, and Molly McGrath Channel, but listen to the audio by Hall of Famer Mick Hubert on TuneIn or WRUF online. The Gators are favored by 8, and the over/under is 51. I think this will be a low-scoring, plodding game that ends up 21-17, Gators.
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
    • Like Like x 1
  2. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Yes, and THIS one I believe will find us DEPENDING on Feliepe: With our two top "D-" and "O-" Star players missing this one with those dreaded "nagging injuries" (just be GLAD they're "nagging" ones--in both cases it has finally surfaced that these are the sort of "just enough to sit 'em"-level severity that will likely see them both back by the time the schedule turns SERIOUS in a few weeks, starting with Auburn and beyond...), more than ever it will be our QB-1 whose skills will be counted on and on display.
    Let it not be forgotten: Franks had a terrible game last season at home against the normally "Mildcats"...Benny and their running game made it stick, but Feliepe had one of his worst games as a starter here; I doubt HE'S forgotten it. He's started out well so far this season, though, and I actually expect him to continue that here. His former penchant for missing open receivers has NOT been the rule thus far--and I'm looking for that to carry on in this one. We'll (necessarily) have to establish the run, but look for our Franks-led passing game to run up a decent score this time at their place--and our superior D will make it stick.
    How bad? Well, I'm not big on picking and calling scores (check the record--I hardly ever do it), but I have a feeling we score something like 5 TDs--at least 2 more than they manage. 'Course, long as it's by at least ONE (POINT, even), we'll take it!
    No apologies. Right?
    Go Gators!!!
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The Wildcats use a ball-control offense that is inappropriately labeled as a multiple pro-style, and is focused primarily on WR Lynn Bowden, who has been compared to Florida's WR Kadarius Toney, but with more touches on the ball. Before the injury, QB Terry Wilson was beginning to find big plays with WR Josh Ali and WR Isaiah Epps. QB Sawyer Smith is a slightly better passer than Wilson, but he will be going up a formidable Gator defense that uses a hybrid 4-2-5/ 3-3-5 defense to limit passing offenses. Kentucky's rushing offense is not as dangerous as it was last year with RB Benny Snell, but the Kentucky offensive line returns 8 starters from last year and is considered to be one of the best. The split-zone offense will punish the Gators' aggressive defense if the defensive linemen over-pursue or cannot penetrate the boundary. The Gators' defense has struggled with Mark Stoops' evolving offense ever since he showed up in Lexington, with the Kentucky offense becoming more dangerous as it moved away from the Air Raid into more of a zone-read/ split-zone, ball-control offense based on strong, fundamental blocking from the offensive line. The Kentucky offensive line is nearly unstoppable when it is flowing to its right, so the Gators will need to be careful when trying to penetrate that wall. The weakside of the line is athletic enough where they will sometimes split the left tackle in order to move the opposing defensive end away from the point of attack and create holes for the running backs.

    The Kentucky offense was a bit shaky against its FCS warmup game against Eastern Michigan. The Wildcats should have blown the FCS team away, but fumbles and pass drops plagued the team. The passing game depends on luck at time with 50/50 jump balls, especially to #14 Ahmad Wagner, their tallest receiver.

    If Kentucky is to win the game, they will need to have good days from Bowden, Sawyer, and Rose behind that strong offensive line. Look for Smoke to have a good day as he tries to supplant Rose as the featured back.

    Kentucky depth chart:
    Left Tackle
    67 Landon Young, 6-7, 321, Jr-2L
    66 Naasir Watkins, 6-5, 302, So-1L

    Left Guard
    71 Logan Stenberg, 6-6, 321, Sr-3L
    68 Kenneth Horsey, 6-3, 321, Fr-RS

    52 Drake Jackson, 6-2, 312, Jr-2L
    60 Quintin Wilson, 6-1, 302, Fr-RS Right Guard
    79 Luke Fortner, 6-6, 305, Jr-2L
    77 Mason Wolfe, 6-6, 323, Sr-2L

    Right Tackle
    70 Darian Kinnard, 6-5, 325, So-1L
    66 Naasir Watkins, 6-5, 302, So-1L

    Tight End
    83 Justin Rigg, 6-6, 263, Jr-2L
    88 Keaton Upshaw, 6-6, 255, Fr-RS

    Wide Receiver (X)
    14 Ahmad Wagner, 6-5, 237, Sr-1L
    86 DeMarcus Harris, 6-1, 176, Fr-HS

    Wide Receiver (Y)
    89 Allen Dailey Jr., 6-3, 204, So-1L
    18 Clevan Thomas Jr., 5-11, 213, So-1L

    Wide Receiver (F)
    1 Lynn Bowden Jr., 6-1, 206, Jr-2L
    18 Clevan Thomas Jr., 5-11, 213, So-1L

    Wide Receiver (Z)
    6 Josh Ali, 6-0, 193, Jr-2L
    85 Bryce Oliver, 6-1, 208, Fr-RS

    12 Sawyer Smith, 6-3, 219, Jr-Tr
    17 Walker Wood, 6-0, 191, So-Sq

    Running Back
    10 A.J. Rose, 6-1, 218, Jr-2L
    20 Kavosiey Smoke
    , 5-9, 220, Fr-RS or 24 Christopher Rodriguez Jr., 5-11, 224, Fr-RS
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The Kentucky defense is rather solid as a unit, despite the lack of individual star power. Mark Stoops shifted his defense around the same time he shifted his defense, and it seems to have paid off. The Wildcats use a 3-4 defense in order to get pressure in opponent's backfields. NG Quinton Bohanna will be one of the largest defensive players that the Gators will face all year. The Kentucky version of Jabari Zuniga, Josh Pashcal, is much larger at 284 pounds vs 247 pounds. The Kentucky DBs are rather small, so the Gators should be able to throw at the 97th-ranked passing defense in the nation. Overall, Kentucky's defense is sound, but its players are often tweeners playing hybrid roles, with the exception of the defensive front.

    Strongside Linebacker
    31 Jamar “Boogie” Watson, 6-3, 224, Jr-2L
    6 Jared Casey, 6-3, 224, Fr-HS

    Defensive Tackle
    91 Calvin Taylor Jr., 6-9, 300, Jr-1L
    92 Phil Hoskins, 6-5, 310, Sr-2L

    Nose Guard
    95 Quinton Bohanna, 6-4, 361, Jr-2L
    50 Marquan McCall, 6-3, 371, So-1L

    Defensive End
    90 T.J. Carter, 6-4, 287, Sr-3L
    59 Kordell Looney, 6-3, 292, Jr-2L

    Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
    4 Josh Paschal, 6-3, 284, So-2L
    15 Jordan Wright, 6-5, 238, So-1L

    Middle Linebacker
    56 Kash Daniel, 6-1, 226, Sr-3L
    44 Jamin Davis, 6-4, 228, So-1L

    Weakside Linebacker
    17 DeAndre Square, 6-1, 217, So-1L
    22 Chris Oats, 6-3, 231, So-1L

    23 Tyrell Aijan, 6-0, 195, So-1L
    3 Jordan Griffin, 6-0, 197, Sr-3L

    27 Cedrick Dort Jr., 5-11, 182, So-1L
    26 Brandin Echols, 5-11, 178, Jr-JC

    32 Jamari Brown, 6-1, 196, Fr-RS
    36 M.J. Devonshire Jr., 5-11, 175, Fr-HS

    Strong Safety
    3 Jordan Griffin, 6-0, 197, Sr-3L
    23 Tyrell Aijan, 6-0, 195, So-1L

    Free Safety
    29 Yusuf Corker, 6-0, 195, So-1L
    30 Taj Dodson, 6-1, 192, Fr-HS
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The Gator offensive depth chart is below. Dan Mullen's offense is an outgrowth of the Utah offense that he used as the offensive coordinator at Utah and Florida, but it evolved over time at Mississippi State into more of a multiple/ pro-style. The offense does use run pass option (RPO) and zone read from the Urban Meyer Gator days, but there is plenty of pistol formation and dropback passing from under center. The Gators are a pure spread when in 00 (5 receivers, 0 running backs) or 10 package (4 receivers, 1 running back). They will use quad formations out of the 00 package, and trips out of the 10 package.

    Wide Receiver (X)
    12 Jefferson, Van RS SR/TR 6-2 197
    15 Copeland, Jacob RS FR 6-0 192

    Wide Receiver (Y)
    89 Cleveland, Tyrie SR 6-2 210
    8 Grimes, Trevon JR/TR 6-5 210
    83 Wells, Rick RS JR 6-0 202
    1 Toney, Kadarius JR 6-0 195 (injured)

    Wide Receiver (Z)
    10 Hammond, Josh RS JR 6-0 190
    16 Swain, Freddie SR 6-1 199

    Left Tackle
    72 Forsythe, Stone RS JR 6-7 329
    76 Gouraige, Richard RS FR 6-4 298

    Left Guard
    61 Heggie, Brett RS JR 6-4 330
    77 White, Ethan FR 6-5 370

    66 Buchanan, Nick RS SR 6-3 283
    50 Rowell, Tanner RS JR 6-2 283

    Right Guard
    67 Bleich, Chris RS FR 6-6 330
    75 Moore, T.J. RS SO 6-5 305

    Right Tackle
    56 DeLance, Jean RS JR 6-4 314
    70 Tarquin, Michael FR 6-5 279

    Tight End/ H-Back
    84 Pitts, Kyle SO 6-6 247
    7 Krull, Lucas RS JR 6-6 257
    88 Gamble, Kemore RS SO 6-3 241
    81 Lang, Dante RS FR 6-5 252

    13 Franks, Feleipe RS JR 6-6 238
    11 Trask, Kyle RS JR 6-5 239
    5 Jones, Emory RS FR 6-2 199

    Running Back
    2 Perine, Lamical SR 5-11 218
    20 Davis, Malik RS SO 5-11 195
    27 Pierce, Dameon SO 5-10 207
    24 Clement, Iverson RS FR 5-11 193
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The Gator defensive depth chart is shown below. The defense is described as a hybrid 4-3/ 3-4, but Florida uses two different hybrid positions (BUCK and STAR) that indicate the offense is actually more of a 4-2-5/ 3-3-5 hybrid. This style of defense is predicated on creating pressure in the opponent's backfield and defending the pass with defenders in Cover-0 (man-to-man) against spread offenses or Cover-2/ 3rd-level blitz against most other offenses. Last year the Gators had issues with tackling, just as they did with Miami in week 0. The Gators will need to work on that tackling if they are to avoid another loss to the Wildcats.

    Defensive End
    92 Zuniga, Jabari RS SR6-4 246
    17 Carter, Zachary RS SO6-4 263
    90 Chatfield Jr., Andrew RS FR6-0 243

    Nose Tackle
    55 Campbell, Kyree JR6-3 304
    98 Ancrum, Luke RS SR6-5 263
    56 Slaton, Tedarrell JR 6-5 358

    Defensive Tackle
    95 Shuler, Adam RS SR/TR6-4 275
    91 Dunlap, Marlon RS JR6-3 295

    58 Greenard, Jonathan GS6-3 263
    7 Moon, Jeremiah RS JR6-6 228

    21 Dean III, Trey SO 6-3 198
    30 Burney, Amari SO 6-2 224

    Middle Linebacker
    33 Reese ll, David SR 6-1 239
    41 Houston IV, James RS SO 6-1 233
    34 Brunson, Lacedrick RS SO 6-1 229

    Middle Linebacker
    51 Miller, Ventrell RS SO 6-0 222
    30 Burney, Amari SO 6-0 224

    Left Cornerback
    1 Henderson, C.J. JR 6-1 202 (injured)
    23 Hill, Jaydon FR6-0 175
    25 Kimbrough, Chester FR 5-11 172

    Strong Safety
    13 Stiner, Donovan JR 6-1 203
    31 Davis, Shawn JR 5-11 185
    14 Lenton, Quincy RS JR 5-11 205

    Free Safety
    29 Taylor, Jeawon SR 6-1 206
    2 Stewart, Brad JR 6-0 200

    Right Cornerback
    3 Wilson, Marco RS SO 6-0 190
    5 Elam, Kaiir FR 6-2 187
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
    • Like Like x 1
  7. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    I strongly recommend E-'s last several posts here: I gave them ALL "Informative" ratings--except the last, which I "Liked" as a general comment on the whole sequence:
    Together, these comprise what amounts to a comprehensive analysis of the game ahead at this time, given BOTH teams' strengths snd weaknesses RIGHT NOW.
    Overall, then, I think it well supports our seeming "edge" should both squads play at or near their best come Saturday.
    UK should come up short, as I projected, PROVIDED WE play well--especially our QB (also as projected). But by the same token, we could EASILY falter, come up short--and end up with a disappointing loss as we did LAST season, and this time it's at THEIR place, after all.
    Only a big game from our "QB-1" will bring a dominant Gator victory REGARDLESS of Wildcat efforts this time. Feliepe Franks has finally begun to show how his superior physical skills CAN RAISE THE LEVEL OF PLAY OF THE WHOLE OFFENSE, lead this team to victory on any given Saturday. Should that become a regular part of his game, as we get healthy again this could be a formidible UF squad indeed.
  8. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Video game simulations predict a 42-28 victory for the Gators. I would be happy with that, but I doubt this game will have such a high score.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Boy, do I ever agree with you: More I consider the circumstances and current state AND stakes for BOTH teams, the more concerned I become about the potential for an undeserved loss (or perhaps worse--a "deserved one"?).
    Anyway, certainly an UNNECESSARY one, considering our overall talent differential: Again, more than anything a good game from our QB SHOULD bring victory no matter WHAT! So let's keep it simple: Franks throws a few bombs, we pull away in the 2nd half for a solid win, and the season continues forward in positive fashion...its ultimate significance still to be revealed--or NOT, as the case may be. ONWARD!!!
  10. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    (Or to put it another way:)
    ...I'm just hopin' on Franks getting his HEAD on straight, his gettin' it outta his butt with that silly "argument" he THINKS he's got goin' with the Gator faithful...
    "That's NEVER a good thing, Filiepe! You can never WIN that kind of hassle--especially when it's of the IMAGINARY variety!"
    Look, ya hadda NICE game tuning up against the Skyhawks last week (currently the best college team in Tennesee, btw):
    Now, pivot and DRIVE--to karmic redemption and a return to our winning ways against UK! You've had TWO of your worst days in the SEC against them the last two years we've played 'em--were LUCKY to see us win the last time we were at their place. Be a nice change to see you lead us sharply against what by all accounts is the strongest defense they've had in some time. But even down Tomey OUR OFFENSE has looked fearsome lately when YOU'RE in a zone, Filiepe. It is time for you to show the WAY, man: Time to put the whole PACKAGE together, finally, once and for ALL!
    And to Gators everywhere, above all including "the regs" who join us here on gamedays, SEE Y'ALL ROUND 6P CENTRAL SATURDAY!!!
  11. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    • Like Like x 1
  12. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Normally, additional pressure, publicly applied, is NOT a good thing. Normally, among young men you'd rather be the UNDERDOG in such cases; That certainly LOOKS to be the play today--but no. Hold on a sec, Reptiles. We don't WANNA havta fear anyone or anything in our world: It is time for us to arise, with confidence, here in OUR WORLD. Not the venue, but the GAME: This game is OURS! It is time, WAY PAST TIME, to get back to WINNING THESE, hands down. "GameDay" isn't in town for it--and SHOULDN'T BE!
    No "heart warming human-interest stories" here: Biz as USUAL should be the story here today: Our guys beat YOUR guys, our QB throwin' bullets hitting his targets all over the field.
    So here's where we find out; here's our first real look at what the season might hold. Minus a coupla pieces, our offense still getting its bearings and coming up to speed, we are relying now on Franks to raise the play of everyone around him out there today. He confidently takes control, we win this one going away. Another sub-standard performance, though, and our claims of having moved to the next level, ready to compete with the elite in our Conference, is more likely exagerated.
    I am concerned about this one, anxious to see what we really got--but the good news is this: One way or another, soon we'll know. By the end of this one we should have a pretty clear view of how we truly are coming along. Time to leave the "pretty good teams" in our dust--and do it at THEIR place, when asked.
    Can't manage that, no use pretending to competence, let alone DOMINANCE we haven't yet achieved after all.
    So: Now we find out.
  13. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    OK. Here we go. Me, I won't be saying much this time, I don't think...
    We either win, win early and big, or...well, I will leave all that to y all...
  14. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

  15. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Well. Franks was leading us--then he did what he all too often does: Made a bad decision late, on his own, threw it uo for an INT at the goal line....fumble!!--
    We get it? Yes!--Gator ball!
  16. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Ok, handed a 2nd chance Filiepe.
    Make em pay.
    Gotta start running the ball.
  17. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    What has happenned to our running game?
  18. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Yes!!! Gotta get points here.
  19. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Geez...we nust cannot open holes. Gotta stay at it though...
  20. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    They are out play-calling us so far...

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