The Gator football program has been floundering since Urban Meyer's final year of 2010.
Average Recruiting Class Rating
Urban Meyer was the best recruiter, by far. Will Muschamp was the next-best recruiter, but his classes were imbalanced between defense and offense. McElwain was by far the worst recruiter. Mullen's recruiting classes were slightly less talented than Spurrier's. Not shown here is that Mullen's adjusted talent rating accounting for transfers puts him above Spurrier. I do not include the adjusted ratings because there is no equivalent metric prior to 2020 when the transfer portal became a factor in adjusted rankings. Napier only has one class for comparison, but his next class is trending towards Muschamp-level recruiting--with the same imbalance.
Yearly Recruiting Class Rating and Ranking vs AP Poll Ranking
Spurrier's recruiting rankings and AP polls are all green and yellow-orange, meaning he consistently performed near the top. Spurrier never had a recruiting class ranked below 11, and he never had an AP poll below 12. Note that for teams not ranked in the AP top-25 polls, I projected their rankings.
Zook turned into an excellent recruiter once he got over the transition from Spurrier. It is understandable that many recruits de-committed when Spurrier left for the NFL in 2002. Zook was not a very good coach, but Urban Meyer did applaud him for recruiting the foundation of the 2006 championship team.
Meyer was an excellent recruiter and coach. His worst recruiting class was his first at #15, and he delivered top-5 classes until hie left--including some of the best recruiting classes ever assembled in college football history! With the exception of Tebow's Heisman year of 2007, Meyer's teams were consistently ranked in the top 5 as well.
Muschamp was a much better defensive recruiter and defensive coach than he was as a head coach and overall recruiter. His offensive woes eventually led to his firing.
McElwain was straight up trash. No further analysis needed.
Mullen made offense fun, but his inability to fire Grantham was a liability against the team's success. Mullen recruited among the top 15, and was the first to make use of transfers to bolster his recruiting shortfalls at scale.
Napier only has one data point for recruiting, but as mentioned above he is trending towards Zook and Muschamp levels of recruiting. Like his predecessors, his teams will suffer in AP polls in year 1.
Trend Summaries
The charts below highlight obvious trends:
- Recruiting ratings correlate to recruiting rankings. The ratings are tracked here for comparisons to other teams, such as Alabama and Georgia, in a future post.
- There is a slight delay between good recruiting classes and good AP polls. The more successive, good recruiting classes a coach can stack, the better the AP polls in 1-3 years.
Summary
It is too simplistic and intellectually disingenuous to assume that coaches get x number of years before they are fired. Napier should get 3 years to purge the roster of Mullen's subpar athletes. Since he does not have good athletes to lean on like Meyer, he should get 4 years where he keeps the team ranked in the top 20 in year 2-4.
Average Recruiting Class Rating
Urban Meyer was the best recruiter, by far. Will Muschamp was the next-best recruiter, but his classes were imbalanced between defense and offense. McElwain was by far the worst recruiter. Mullen's recruiting classes were slightly less talented than Spurrier's. Not shown here is that Mullen's adjusted talent rating accounting for transfers puts him above Spurrier. I do not include the adjusted ratings because there is no equivalent metric prior to 2020 when the transfer portal became a factor in adjusted rankings. Napier only has one class for comparison, but his next class is trending towards Muschamp-level recruiting--with the same imbalance.
| Coach | Recruiting Class Rating |
|---|---|
Spurrier | 269.92 |
Zook | 265.34 |
Meyer | 283.84 |
Muschamp | 277.18 |
McElwain | 246.19 |
Mullen | 268.11 |
Napier | 249.76 |
Yearly Recruiting Class Rating and Ranking vs AP Poll Ranking
Spurrier's recruiting rankings and AP polls are all green and yellow-orange, meaning he consistently performed near the top. Spurrier never had a recruiting class ranked below 11, and he never had an AP poll below 12. Note that for teams not ranked in the AP top-25 polls, I projected their rankings.
Zook turned into an excellent recruiter once he got over the transition from Spurrier. It is understandable that many recruits de-committed when Spurrier left for the NFL in 2002. Zook was not a very good coach, but Urban Meyer did applaud him for recruiting the foundation of the 2006 championship team.
Meyer was an excellent recruiter and coach. His worst recruiting class was his first at #15, and he delivered top-5 classes until hie left--including some of the best recruiting classes ever assembled in college football history! With the exception of Tebow's Heisman year of 2007, Meyer's teams were consistently ranked in the top 5 as well.
Muschamp was a much better defensive recruiter and defensive coach than he was as a head coach and overall recruiter. His offensive woes eventually led to his firing.
McElwain was straight up trash. No further analysis needed.
Mullen made offense fun, but his inability to fire Grantham was a liability against the team's success. Mullen recruited among the top 15, and was the first to make use of transfers to bolster his recruiting shortfalls at scale.
Napier only has one data point for recruiting, but as mentioned above he is trending towards Zook and Muschamp levels of recruiting. Like his predecessors, his teams will suffer in AP polls in year 1.
Trend Summaries
The charts below highlight obvious trends:
- Recruiting ratings correlate to recruiting rankings. The ratings are tracked here for comparisons to other teams, such as Alabama and Georgia, in a future post.
- There is a slight delay between good recruiting classes and good AP polls. The more successive, good recruiting classes a coach can stack, the better the AP polls in 1-3 years.
Summary
It is too simplistic and intellectually disingenuous to assume that coaches get x number of years before they are fired. Napier should get 3 years to purge the roster of Mullen's subpar athletes. Since he does not have good athletes to lean on like Meyer, he should get 4 years where he keeps the team ranked in the top 20 in year 2-4.
