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2022 Game Predictions by FPI and Win Probability

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
In August I was overly optimistic and I predicted an 8-4 (5-3) season even though the data and the model suggested a 6-6 (3-5) season. Overall the season went as expected. The Gators won 50% of the games and were expected to win 51.2%. The surprises were as follows:

- Texas A&M. Florida had a 33.0% chance of winning, which was up from earlier weeks with the FPI near 28%.
- Vanderbilt. Florida had a consistent 78% to 83% chance of winning.
OpponentFPIModel PredictionManual PredictionActual
Utah Utes​
46.02%​
Utah 32, Florida 30 (1-0, 0-0)
Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0)
Florida 29, #7 Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0)
Kentucky Wildcats​
49.27%​
Kentucky 27, Florida 21 (1-1, 0-1)
Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0)
#20 Kentucky 29, Florida 16 (1-1, 0-1)
South Florida Bulls​
97.92%​
Florida 45, USF 10 (2-1, 0-1)
Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)
Florida 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)
@ Tennessee Volunteers​
7.81%​
Tennessee 36, Florida 24 (2-2, 0-2)
Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1)
#11 Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (2-2, 0-2)
Eastern Washington Eagles​
98.00%​
Florida 48, EWU 10 (3-2, 0-2)
Florida 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)
Florida 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)
Missouri Tigers​
76.69%​
Florida 35, Missouri 21 (4-2, 1-2)
Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1)
Florida 24, Missouri 17 (4-2, 1-2)
LSU Tigers​
24.26%​
LSU 42, Florida 32 (4-3, 1-3)
Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)
LSU 45, Florida 35 (4-3, 1-3)
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)​
7.20%​
Georgia 52, Florida 32 (4-4, 1-4)
Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2)
#1 Georgia 42, Florida 20 (4-4, 1-4)
@ Texas A&M Aggies​
33.00%​
Texas A&M 38, Florida 21 (4-5, 1-5)
Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3)
Florida 41, Texas A&M 24 (5-4, 2-4)
South Carolina Gamecocks​
63.50%​
Florida 32, South Carolina 21 (5-5, 2-5)
Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)
Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (6-4, 3-4)
@ Vanderbilt Commodores​
78.10%​
Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (6-5, 3-5)
Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)
Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (6-5, 3-5)
@ FSU Seminoles​
32.60%​
FSU 36, Florida 27 (6-6, 3-5)
Florida 21, FSU14 (8-4, 5-3)
#16 FSU 45, Florida 38 (6-6, 3-5)
51.20%​
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
In August I was overly optimistic and I predicted an 8-4 (5-3) season even though the data and the model suggested a 6-6 (3-5) season. Overall the season went as expected. The Gators won 50% of the games and were expected to win 51.2%. The surprises were as follows:

- Texas A&M. Florida had a 33.0% chance of winning, which was up from earlier weeks with the FPI near 28%.
- Vanderbilt. Florida had a consistent 78% to 83% chance of winning.
OpponentFPIModel PredictionManual PredictionActual
Utah Utes​
46.02%​
Utah 32, Florida 30 (1-0, 0-0)
Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0)
Florida 29, #7 Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0)
Kentucky Wildcats​
49.27%​
Kentucky 27, Florida 21 (1-1, 0-1)
Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0)
#20 Kentucky 29, Florida 16 (1-1, 0-1)
South Florida Bulls​
97.92%​
Florida 45, USF 10 (2-1, 0-1)
Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)
Florida 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)
@ Tennessee Volunteers​
7.81%​
Tennessee 36, Florida 24 (2-2, 0-2)
Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1)
#11 Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (2-2, 0-2)
Eastern Washington Eagles​
98.00%​
Florida 48, EWU 10 (3-2, 0-2)
Florida 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)
Florida 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)
Missouri Tigers​
76.69%​
Florida 35, Missouri 21 (4-2, 1-2)
Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1)
Florida 24, Missouri 17 (4-2, 1-2)
LSU Tigers​
24.26%​
LSU 42, Florida 32 (4-3, 1-3)
Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)
LSU 45, Florida 35 (4-3, 1-3)
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)​
7.20%​
Georgia 52, Florida 32 (4-4, 1-4)
Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2)
#1 Georgia 42, Florida 20 (4-4, 1-4)
@ Texas A&M Aggies​
33.00%​
Texas A&M 38, Florida 21 (4-5, 1-5)
Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3)
Florida 41, Texas A&M 24 (5-4, 2-4)
South Carolina Gamecocks​
63.50%​
Florida 32, South Carolina 21 (5-5, 2-5)
Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)
Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (6-4, 3-4)
@ Vanderbilt Commodores​
78.10%​
Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (6-5, 3-5)
Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)
Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (6-5, 3-5)
@ FSU Seminoles​
32.60%​
FSU 36, Florida 27 (6-6, 3-5)
Florida 21, FSU14 (8-4, 5-3)
#16 FSU 45, Florida 38 (6-6, 3-5)
51.20%​
Look, the truth is that "data-predictive" or not, the "EYETEST" itself saw an at times talented but wildly inconsistent Gator squad that had real CHANCES to realize that "8-and-4" record after all. That is what made the actual outcome, in all its mediocrity, so completely frustrating.
We now await MORE of such "eyetest data", actual onfield evidence in 2023 and beyond, to properly judge this Coach and team.
I am tired of dancing around the simple truth of that reality. In fact , I'm tired of so many things.
All these QUESTIONS..."Will AR stay or go?" "Between the pro draft and the transfer portal, who will go, who will stay, who ELSE will we manage to grab?"
"How much difference will it all make?"
"What will this Coach and his staff DO with it all?"
"How will they react?"
"WILL they REACT?"
SICK OF IT!!!
Because nothing WE do or say here matters.
I have my opinions, analyses of the various effects--the pros and cons. For now I will keep them to myself--because what I see or say affects NOTHING now. Same for all of you.
All WE can do right now is settle back, watch and WAIT: See what happens, and how Billy & Co. deal with it.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The chart below shows that the ESPN FPI empirically predicted and demonstrated the following:
- The Florida Gators were a stronger team in preseason estimates and after its week 1 victory over Utah, but it leveled out until peaking again against Texas A&M and South Carolina.
- The Gators win over Utah can be attributed to the Swamp, not the talent on the team.
- The Vanderbilt loss was completely unexpected.
- LSU and FSU got a lot better and peaked before facing Florida.
- Kentucky and Tennessee got worse after facing Florida.
- South Carolina got a lot better after facing Florida.
GameOpponentWP1WP2WP3WP4WP5WP6WP7WP8WP9WP10WP11WP12WP13WP
September 3, 2022​
Utah Utes​
46.02%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
September 10, 2022​
Kentucky Wildcats​
51.10%​
49.27%
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
September 17, 2022​
South Florida Bulls​
87.70%​
92.84%​
97.92%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
September 24, 2022​
@ Tennessee Volunteers​
39.80%​
27.12%​
17.93%​
7.81%
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
October 1, 2022​
Eastern Washington Eagles​
96.90%​
99.47%​
98.98%​
98.00%​
98.00%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
October 8, 2022​
Missouri Tigers​
78.30%​
81.10%​
76.65%​
78.28%​
77.75%​
76.69%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
October 15, 2022​
LSU Tigers​
44.70%​
47.10%​
34.46%​
21.72%​
22.52%​
25.21%​
24.26%
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
October 29, 2022​
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)​
4.46%​
4.37%​
4.37%​
4.37%​
3.42%​
5.52%​
6.36%​
7.20%​
7.20%
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%​
November 5, 2022​
@ Texas A&M Aggies​
28.43%​
36.49%​
37.17%​
27.43%​
34.17%​
39.07%​
36.04%​
33.00%​
33.00%​
33.00%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
November 12, 2022​
South Carolina Gamecocks​
72.88%​
75.80%​
69.47%​
73.77%​
72.24%​
71.65%​
67.58%​
63.50%​
63.50%​
63.50%​
63.50%
100.00%​
100.00%​
100.00%​
November 19, 2022​
@ Vanderbilt Commodores​
71.66%​
82.55%​
80.86%​
71.97%​
78.51%​
79.75%​
78.93%​
78.10%​
78.10%​
78.10%​
78.10%​
78.10%
0.00%​
0.00%​
November 25, 2022​
@ FSU Seminoles​
46.02%​
49.27%​
39.95%​
26.25%​
25.21%​
34.49%​
33.55%​
32.60%​
32.60%​
32.60%​
32.60%​
32.60%​
32.60%
0.00%​
66.80%​
74.54%​
65.78%​
60.96%​
61.18%​
63.24%​
64.67%​
61.44%​
61.44%​
60.72%​
67.42%​
71.07%​
63.26%​
60.00%​
 
Last edited:
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