That Damn TAMU Loss—BUT:

Well, now we know how MUCH a late-4th qtr fumble can cost you...
Personally, of course, after the involuntary “covid-break” followed by Gator DOMINANCE, I feel like we should have slipped BY A&M in the first CFB Playoff rankings—to be ranked 5th (rather than 6th) in the rankings—mainly because this could well end up our “high water mark” this season: Even if we WIN OUT rest of our regular schedule, we probably WON’T jump A&M now unless THEY were to lose, even though UF arguably faces the tougher last few games.
But all that is just shallow window dressing, really, ANYWAY:
I know that the REAL QUESTIONS will be posed and answered in the SEC Championship Game. Long as we DO WIN OUT, “fifth or sixth” NOW hardly matters...It inevitably comes down to BEATING BAMA!
Win out, INCLUDING that SEC Championship game, and we WILL be included in the FFF. The only question to come out of THAT will be whether Bama would STILL get in, giving the SEC TWO teams in—and A&M STILL on the outside looking in...
Barring MULTIPLE shocking upsets among the current top four, I don’t see ANY way they get any higher.
We TOO are in a tough position, having to keep winning just to face (and still needing to BEAT) Alabama—but I’d rather be US, have THAT “mountain to climb”, than TAMU, who realistically is already just playing for “also ran”!

That loss sucked and so did Notre Dame beating Clemson. Now, if say Clemson wins the rematch, both teams are in. I hope that UNC can pull off the upset. However, regardless what happens in the ACC title game and/or ND vs UNC, Florida still has to win out including the SEC title game. A&M needs to win and hope Bama loses two games either in the regular season or one in the regular season and one in the SEC title game for them to get in. Personally, I hope it's two Bama regular-season losses so the Gators can have another crack at Jimbo's boys (there's a chance, granted a small one but still). Yes, there's Ohio State losing but probably won't happen until the Big Ten title game and that's if Northwestern plays their A-game.

Leakfan12 said:

That loss sucked and so did Notre Dame beating Clemson. Now, if say Clemson wins the rematch, both teams are in. I hope that UNC can pull off the upset. However, regardless what happens in the ACC title game and/or ND vs UNC, Florida still has to win out including the SEC title game. A&M needs to win and hope Bama loses two games either in the regular season or one in the regular season and one in the SEC title game for them to get in. Personally, I hope it's two Bama regular-season losses so the Gators can have another crack at Jimbo's boys (there's a chance, granted a small one but still). Yes, there's Ohio State losing but probably won't happen until the Big Ten title game and that's if Northwestern plays their A-game.

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I think you’ve pretty well nailed it down, top to bottom, Lf...
We’re where we are at, A&M’s where THEY are at—and the rest is “the deep focus”, as we say “at-camera”.
Let’s face it: We’re pretty well “chasing our own tails” now.
Yes, we’d surely have made our path easier, and possibly given ourselves another way in had we NOT blown that ONE...However: (1) We were NOT quite the team then that we are now, and
(2) It STILL isn’t clear that we’ve YET come far enough, nor WILL by the SEC Championship, to get past Alabama in ANY event. I’M certainly not counting on Bama to “lose a couple” by then either. That Irish win over Clemsen did further complicate the various “alternate scenarios”—and you may well be right about the “likeliest possibilities” if Clemsen wins an ACC Championship rematch, but if they LOSE again, well, the various “arguments and debates” will doubtlessly proliferate.
All the more reason we should probably (AGAIN!) “keep it simple” and return to that “Al Davis-cliche” I keep coming back to, keep hammering on here.
Winning: To just KEEP ON WINNING now is the only “clean and CLEAR” way for us to make something special out of this season after all.
Let’s see how we progress through these last few weeks—and what meanwhile happens to everyone else. I’ll have a little better feel, and sharper VIEW of the possibilities, based on all of that when we GET there.
(I’m getting pretty sick of mealy-mouthed “media experts”—and I’m already PAST “sick” of some “bland suits in a room somewhere” deciding our fates “from on high”!)
The more that is settled ON THE FIELD, the better!

If Florida beats Alabama and Clemson loses to Notre Dame, then Florida has an 80% chance of jumping into that #4 slot in the CFP (out of 4 slots, obviously).

Ohio State has no more leverage. Their schedule contains Illinois (2-3, likely 2-6 by 12/12), Michigan State (1-3, likely 2-5 by 12/12), and Michigan (2-3, likely 3-5 by 12/12). Ohio State needs to blow everyone out by 30 points or more and they need another top-4 team to lose or else they are in danger of falling out of the CFP. The Buckeyes dod not look very good against unranked Rutgers, the 38-25 victory over then-#18 Penn State was closer than the score indicates, and the #9 Indiana game is their only victory of note.

Clemson has about a 60% chance of staying in the CFP by avenging their loss to Notre Dame, but it has to be a convincing victory. Clemson's key victories are over then-#7 Miami and a moral victory in the 2OT loss to #4 Notre Dame without their starting QB.

Alabama has a 99% chance of making the CFP no matter what. That 1% would be if they stumbled and only beating #22 Auburn and NR Arkansas by a field goal and then getting blown out by Florida.

Notre Dame has a 99% chance of making the CFP no matter what. They beat then-#1 Clemson 47-40 in 2OT, and their only other ranked opponent #19 North Carolina (6-2) lost to friggin' FSU. Notre Dame will destroy Syracuse (1-8) and Wake Forest (4-3).

TAMU only has #22 Auburn (5-2) as a team to boost their resume, and Auburn might not be ranked if they get blown out by #1 Alabama (7-0) and #21/#23 Oklahoma State, #24/NR Iowa, #24/#25 Tulsa, or #25/NR North Carolina have good days and push Auburn down the rankings before that matchup. Florida, on the other hand, will have #1 Alabama to make or break its resume, and the matchup will occur far enough after the TAMU loss to not matter except when comparing 1-loss teams not named TAMU. They have about a 5% chance of getting into the CFP, and it would require Alabama to lose to Auburn, Florida to lose to Alabama, and Clemson to lose again to Notre Dame.

Florida has eked into a BCS bowl on the heels of a major team losing. I am not counting on this happening this year, but the chances of Florida getting into the CFP over TAMU are pretty high despite the head-to-head loss. Florida's chances are about 50% right now compared to TAMU's 5%. Some might put Florida at 40%, and some put them at 60%.

Escambia94 said:

If Florida beats Alabama and Clemson loses to Notre Dame, then Florida has an 80% chance of jumping into that #4 slot in the CFP (out of 4 slots, obviously).

Ohio State has no more leverage. Their schedule contains Illinois (2-3, likely 2-6 by 12/12), Michigan State (1-3, likely 2-5 by 12/12), and Michigan (2-3, likely 3-5 by 12/12). Ohio State needs to blow everyone out by 30 points or more and they need another top-4 team to lose or else they are in danger of falling out of the CFP. The Buckeyes dod not look very good against unranked Rutgers, the 38-25 victory over then-#18 Penn State was closer than the score indicates, and the #9 Indiana game is their only victory of note.

Clemson has about a 60% chance of staying in the CFP by avenging their loss to Notre Dame, but it has to be a convincing victory. Clemson's key victories are over then-#7 Miami and a moral victory in the 2OT loss to #4 Notre Dame without their starting QB.

Alabama has a 99% chance of making the CFP no matter what. That 1% would be if they stumbled and only beating #22 Auburn and NR Arkansas by a field goal and then getting blown out by Florida.

Notre Dame has a 99% chance of making the CFP no matter what. They beat then-#1 Clemson 47-40 in 2OT, and their only other ranked opponent #19 North Carolina (6-2) lost to friggin' FSU. Notre Dame will destroy Syracuse (1-8) and Wake Forest (4-3).

TAMU only has #22 Auburn (5-2) as a team to boost their resume, and Auburn might not be ranked if they get blown out by #1 Alabama (7-0) and #21/#23 Oklahoma State, #24/NR Iowa, #24/#25 Tulsa, or #25/NR North Carolina have good days and push Auburn down the rankings before that matchup. Florida, on the other hand, will have #1 Alabama to make or break its resume, and the matchup will occur far enough after the TAMU loss to not matter except when comparing 1-loss teams not named TAMU. They have about a 5% chance of getting into the CFP, and it would require Alabama to lose to Auburn, Florida to lose to Alabama, and Clemson to lose again to Notre Dame.

Florida has eked into a BCS bowl on the heels of a major team losing. I am not counting on this happening this year, but the chances of Florida getting into the CFP over TAMU are pretty high despite the head-to-head loss. Florida's chances are about 50% right now compared to TAMU's 5%. Some might put Florida at 40%, and some put them at 60%.

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Well, at least I have the consolation of seeing I am far from the ONLY person searching among “IF’s” to somehow divine the various potential outcomes.
And let’s face it: We only do this because we have too much time and too little actual “hard data”; Add to THAT the fact that now we know that it ISN’T JUST the “media fools” who are all OVER the place on these questions...As of last night we see that the CFB Playoff Committee members, the very people who will “officially” SETTLE THE MATTER at the end here, are JUST AS ADDLED AND CONFUSED by it all.
SO: I am calling a “Temporary Moratorium”, a suspension of my OWN such meanderings until AT LEAST the week of the SEC Championship Game.
In the meantime, I commend you all to my latest (related) thoughts on the soon-to-be-posted thread, “A PUNCHER’S CHANCE”—Coming soon to a GE posting near YOU in TIME and SPACE.
(Soon as I get around to it.)

Well UNC lost.

Leakfan12 said:

Well UNC lost.

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Yes. Bummed me too.
“There goes our one chance at ‘some room for error’ after all...” was what went through MY mind about 1/2 way through the 4th qrtr in that one.
Still, as we return to the “all or nothing”, “we don’t play for ‘ALMOST’ “ mentality that the once “Sleeping Giant” UF used to be thought of for so many (Pre-Spurrier) years, in a wider sense of course it really doesn’t matter much:
As we have each of us ALL have come to realize before this, though we may have (once again, LITERALLY) “fumbled away” the chance to go UNDEFEATED back in the late-4th qrtr of the A&M game, our fate remains in our own hands even now.
I don’t have to go over it all again: There’ll be those who will try to cloud the true picture, Aggies and others who’d do ANYTHING, SAY anything to see THEIR OWN fortunes and/or possibilities changed, improved somehow at the very end—their fate back in their own hands. BUT:
Only in OUR case, “Win or go home” is the clear, simple and inarguable situation.
Let’s get TO it!

This has to make the road easier (unless the Big 10 changes things)

Michigan-Ohio State football game called off due to COVID-19 cases with Wolverines (espn.com)

Again: You’d THINK so, but I have this “bad feeling”...
The really shitty part is, as per the title of this particular thread, we were at LEAST “as good a team” as A&M when we played them—and I’m pretty damn sure we’re BETTER than them NOW...
Whereas the only way to render all the rest moot—and why everyone keeps using the phrase, “in their own hands” when they talk about OUR “chances” of making it to the playoffs, by the way—IS to “simply” BEAT Alabama Saturday-after-next!
NOT as “simple” OR “straightforward” as beating A&M would have been then nor would be NOW.

I hate to repeat myself, but before the season started most pundits had the A&M game as a loss, with maybe half saying the Gators would win out from there and challenge for the SEC Championship and half saying the Gators would be right here in the top 5 or 6. The Gators control their destiny, which is all that they wanted. If they beat LSU and Alabama, they are in the CFP even with a loss to the Aggies. The Aggies have zero leverage remaining on their schedule. With the game against 4-4 Ole Miss being "postponed" they only have the 2-6 Tennessee Vols left to play, assuming they do not come down with COVID.

If the Gators lose to Alabama, that head-to-head loss against the Aggies means a coin toss between the Orange Bowl and the Peach Bowl against Cincinnati or Miami. If the Gators beat Alabama, they could head to the Rose Bowl in the CFP. That is the very definition of controlling one's own destiny.

Maybe we can use the eye test after the LSU game to get a better prediction, but right now it is equally probable that the Gators will play Clemson in the Rose Bowl (assuming they beat Alabama), or play Cincinatti/Miami in the Orange/Peach Bowl.

Escambia94 said:

I hate to repeat myself, but before the season started most pundits had the A&M game as a loss, with maybe half saying the Gators would win out from there and challenge for the SEC Championship and half saying the Gators would be right here in the top 5 or 6. The Gators control their destiny, which is all that they wanted. If they beat LSU and Alabama, they are in the CFP even with a loss to the Aggies. The Aggies have zero leverage remaining on their schedule. With the game against 4-4 Ole Miss being "postponed" they only have the 2-6 Tennessee Vols left to play, assuming they do not come down with COVID.

If the Gators lose to Alabama, that head-to-head loss against the Aggies means a coin toss between the Orange Bowl and the Peach Bowl against Cincinnati or Miami. If the Gators beat Alabama, they could head to the Rose Bowl in the CFP. That is the very definition of controlling one's own destiny.

Maybe we can use the eye test after the LSU game to get a better prediction, but right now it is equally probable that the Gators will play Clemson in the Rose Bowl (assuming they beat Alabama), or play Cincinatti/Miami in the Orange/Peach Bowl.

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Frankly, I don’t KNOW if you are right or wrong, E—, OR, if “mostly right” (more likely, with so MANY variables), which parts among everything ELSE in the “Year of the Unforeseen” would likeliest fall our way, but the fact is I have learned to trust YOUR research and reasoning more (a LOT more) than the axe-to-grind biases of most of the “college football prognosticators” out there.
As for the way things actually play out, well, I’m sure we ALL harbor (at BEST) “mixed” feelings concerning where we’re at and how things will like fall (and FEEL) as we face each impending step ahead.
However, I am determined to “take it all ONE WEEK, ONE GAME at a time”...There’ll continue to be a certain amount of building tension along the way in ANY event—but I am in this way at least determined to TRY and maintain a certain amount of hope at our chances and JOY that we are WHERE we are NOW...This year, at least, as Gators we are reduced to a certain level of “TUNNEL VISION” now, don’t you think? I mean, we can examine and hypothesize about where it all stands—for ourselves and everyone else—in the “Big Picture”, but really, our own fate from here is pretty narrow and tight, I’m afraid.
Don’t you agree?