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Gators vs Gamecocks and Week 9 Bowl Predictions

Gators...


  • Total voters
    5

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Rewind to 1991. Will Muschamp had an appointment to see Steve Spurrier to inquire about walking on to his childhood team, the Florida Gators. Steve Spurrier did not show up for that appointment, and history was made. Fast forward to 2011. 20 years later, Will Muschamp has an opportunity to get back at the Ol' Ball Coach for standing him up two decades ago. I would be upset if I had to choose UGA as my backup plan. More importantly, the 2011 Gators have an opportunity to become bowl eligible.

SEC rankings and bowl predictions as of Week 9:
  1. LSU (9-0, 6-0) - BCS
  2. Alabama (8-1, 5-1) - Capital One
  3. Arkansas (8-1, 4-1) - Cotton
  4. Leghumpers (7-2, 5-1) - Who cares? Sigh. Outback
  5. South Carolina (7-2, 5-2) - Chick Fil A
  6. Auburn (6-3, 4-2) - Gator
  7. Florida (5-4, 3-4) - Music City (possibly Gator)
  8. Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4) - Liberty (if they survive Arkansas and Alabama to get to 0.500)
  9. Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5) - Liberty (if they survive Arkansas and Alabama to get to 0.500)
  10. Tennessee (4-5, 0-5) - Toilet
  11. Kentucky (4-5, 1-4) - Toilet
  12. Ole Miss (2-7, 0-6) - Toilet
How the Gators stack up against the Cocks:



SC UF
Passing yards 179.8 98th 189.3 92nd
Rush yds 188.3 36 th 156.4 62nd
PF 29.9 49 th 26 72nd
PA 20.1 24 th 19.7
20th

PF-PA 45 42 UGA 20 24
PF-PA 21 3 VU 26 21
PF-PA 13 16 AU 6 17
PF-PA 54 3 UK 48 10
In a nutshell, the Gators can mount a better passing attack, but just barely. The Gator rushing game has been slow in a four-game stretch that coincided with our losses, but a healthy Demps can fix that. USC is again without Marcus Lattimore, so their rushing statistics are skewed, not that it matters with the often maligned Gator run defense. Rumor has it that Connor Shaw may not play due to injury, but I would count on him being there to lead the Cocks at home.
Against common foes, the Cocks outperformed the Gators, as expected this year. The upside is that the Cocks are losing playmakers to injuries just as the Gators were earlier in the year.
Logic dictates that a healthy Connor Shaw will beat the Gators at home by a touchdown.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Without the injury report, it is too early to predict the score. Right now, I will go with the Gators winning 20-19 in a nail biter.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I didn't think I'd have to worry so much about this game either way, but now I'm hearing that a win over Furman won't qualify us for a bowl after all: I THOUGHT that might be the case when I saw them referred to as "FBS-team Furman Paladins", but when everyone ELSE kept talking about how after the Vandy win we were "just a Furman-win away" from bowl-eligibility, well, apparently I fell into that old "assuming THEY are right"-trap myself!
NOW those last 2 losses to teams just as mediocre as US (for eg., I just don't buy Georgia as "the top team in the SEC East") are coming back to bite us ALREADY...As you said elsewhere, E-, it's gonna take TWO halves of full effort and execution, back-to-back, to get THIS done, and I just don't know that we are up to it. Too much rests in the hands, heads and hearts of the players on this team, and too many of THEM go their own selfish and undisciplined way, for their own selfish and undisciplined reasons, for the coaches' preparations and admonitions to take hold--OR for ANYONE to count on them when the chips are down. Even in last week's win, the whole damn defensive secondary ignored the week's preparations, the coaches' overall philosophy and their expressed instructions late in the game, instead deciding individually on their own to "play soft" against the Commodore offense, allowing that quick and easy late drive and almost blowing the game. With all the other ways this team finds to blow leads, along with injuries and the "loser's curse" of not being able to have a "break" (or a Replay!) go their way, I just have no confidence we can beat a team equal to ours, let alone one maybe slightly better, in a close one at the end...and that is exactly what we will have to do to take this game--a view that you evidently agree with, but with a more hopeful outcome.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Also, as you say, not knowing all the injured or the extent of their injuries makes ANY prediction impossible, really--most importantly in the case of JB IV, of course. Let's face it: whatever chance we have here is correlated almost exactly with Brantley's health, and his ability to run whatever offense Weis has designed for him THIS week..
That's been overlooked by Weis' critics, I think, the way he has been coming up with and quickly installing various offensive schemes to deal with the situation at hand--whichever QB is out there and what his abilities are (hampered or unhampered by injury), depending on who is playing. Brantley and "the pistol" was an inspiration, but I wouldn't be surprised if he changes that up against Spurrier's boys, at least modifies it somewhat even for a gimpy Brantley--unfortunately, keeping the other team off-balance has to be a part of any winning strategy with all our youth, injuries, and related depth issues.

(After all of that, I was ready to cast my vote for a LOSS, actually checked it, but then changed it to "close win" out of a sense of honor, hope, and just plain superstition: For all my cynical fatalism, I guess I just WON'T send my "bad vibes" out there in such explicit fashion against my Gators, in the end.)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
It turns out that Furman counts for bowl games, but not for BCS points. We are now jockeying for Gator Bowl, Liberty Bowl, or Music City Bowl unless we do better than expected from here on out and someone else stumbles. Beating USC and FSU would probably get us into Chick Fil A in Atlanta. That is not likely, but they did send representatives to watch the Gators last week since Gator fans travel well.

The Gators need to do their part and improve. I would hate to lose to USC and FSU and land in a bowl game in Tennessee, but it is what it is.
 
we get owned by any good defensive line SC is pretty damn good in that department this is our chance to get the best win in the last 2 yrs tho so i hope we can pull it out
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
It looks like Connor Shaw is starting for the Cocks. I hope Mr. Powell and Mr. Easley welcome him back accordingly. Smack him hard and put the fear of God in him.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
With news of Shaw starting, the line is Carolina by 3.5. Florida has been lousy against the spread this year. Gators were 4 point underdogs against Bama, but lost by 28 after JB4 went down (down by 14 at that point). 13 point underdogs against LSU, lost by 30. 2 point favorites against Auburn, lost by 11 (that pissed me off). Kentucky may have been the only game all season we covered the spread.

Georgia beat us by 4 on a neutral field and the Cocks won at Georgia by 3. Florida beat Tennessee by 10 at home and USC beat Tennessee by 11 in Knoxville. Auburn beat Florida by 11 at home and Auburn beat USC by 3 in Columbia.

None of this bodes well for us. Both teams have been hampered by injuries, but I think those injuries hurt us more since nobody has experience in the new offense or defense. If we are healthy, and we have learned our lessons with the losses and the near-loss against Vanderbilt, we can turn the season around as we have in the past around Homecoming. Historically the Gators have turned a corner at the end of October. Maybe we will get that turnaround this week.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I just hope our lines show UP. (Frustrated and bitter? Who me?)
My feeling is that you can't really go by relative-score-comparison in evaluating outcomes with this Gator squad: it would be difficult enough just with the meager information we have regarding our extensive injuries, but when you factor in the realities and actual factors that led to the final scores, especially in the Georgia and Auburn games (this team might well have made games of the first two losses against Bama and LSU, but was far out-weighed in talent in both cases thus far to beat either), it really seems futile, E-. Still, I can't really fault your actual prediction(s)--here's hoping your "hope" triumphs over your "logic" (how often has THAT been the case this season?!!).
Also am happy to hear that, contrary to certain reports, we ARE now eligible for SOME bowl on New Year's Day. Naturally we'd like to see something a bit more "respectable" and interesting (not to mention comfortable--it's absurd and embarrassing to see The FLORIDA Gators breathing clouds of breath on a chilly New Year's Day in Nashville, or somewhere equally non-exotic...). My original point about it being all-important to be able to continue practice and routine preparations for weeks after the regular season is over still holds, though: now, it is ONLY about "image" and what it may or may not mean to recruiting.

I'm, sorry, but it has been a bit of an effort shrugging off my anger and overwhelming inclination to either vent my spleen on this Penn-State thing--or just turn off all thought and discussion of college football entirely for a few days, at least. It isn't that I want to stick my head in the sand and not think about it, like so many do about this sort of thing--ON THE CONTRARY: I have strong feelings on this subject, based both on my general ideas of fairness and decency AND PERSONAL knowledge of, sympathy for and witnessing the lifelong carnage and consequences, direct and indirect, this monstrous behavior has on the lives that it touches.
I'm not going to go into any kind of deep analysis here, or even much in the way of discussion (enough of that elsewhere), except to say that beyond the sick predator himself there are always enablers--and in this case, Joe Paterno was the KING ENABLER here. Period. He should be gone. NOT on his own terms, "at the end of the season" at his own decision.
As someone has already pointed out, complex as the whole LEGAL mess may be, the moral, ethical and institutional decision here (as it SHOULD have been to these cowardly idiots who were in charge at Penn State all this time, CERTAINLY from the moment it went from "whispers" to an actual WITNESS to it IN THEIR LOCKERROOM) is a SIMPLE one: You fire Joe Paterno NOW. (Do you know they "asked" him to resign 3 days ago, and he refused? What the hell are they waiting for? They GAVE him "one more chance" THERE; now out he goes--but no, not these weasels).
You get him and everyone who is connected with his regime, everyone beholden to him--which is just about every coach in the program, the set-up that led to this whole sick stone-walling to protect his "good-buddy" all these years in the first place--and clean every one of THEM out of there (...that includes that WEASEL McQuery: What is HE doing still on the sidelines? He should never be allowed to coach ANYONE ANYWHERE EVER AGAIN).
If you think that's not right or fair somehow, I recommend that you actually read the transcript of the Grand Jury indictment and testimony (I read all 27 pages of it last night--yes, I'm a fast reader, but even a skim-over will open your eyes WIDE and make you see). It is sickening. First of all, it becomes clear that Paterno himself was right on the edge of being charged himself with "obstruction", and avoided it mainly by testifying as he did. Moreover, his own testimony, which he is now publicly contradicting and backing away from (politicians try to play this game in such cases all the time, hoping no one actually reads it and that the public ignores reports), but will either have to ultimately stand by his testimony= or in fact end up charged himself after all. In fact, own words actually expose him to CIVIL penalties--every individual young person (along with their families) who was victimized SINCE that incident in the lockeroom in 2003 can and no doubt WILL name him as one of the co-respondents in their suits, and he has essentially already admitted his complicity with regard to civil law--only the percentage of his liability is likely to be in question. So this will be dragged on and on and the school and everyone else will find it all coming out more and more, again and again in the months and years ahead.
But that of course isn't even the main deal in all of this. It's the corruption of innocence, the utter helplessness and sense of abandonment these kids felt--and continue to feel. Again, when you read the details of what Paterno himself was told that day of what McQuery saw in the Penn State Football Team Locker Room (within hours after it happened--and WTF is with a grown, 28 yr. old man who sees this, and doing nothing except running to his office and calling his daddy?!!, who tells him to "Leave the building, come on home and don't say anything to ANYONE", and after 2 more hours they decide to go see Paterno with it? All they cared about was his "career", obviously, and were all too willing to let it go at Paterno telling them, "Good you told me about it--I'll see to it")...and then everyone continues going along with the cover up after that, with the same Monster still around and with the same privileges and stature in the program.
Sorry--as I say, I have strong feelings in this matter. I'll stop here. I just want to make sure that folks here at least understand that this transcends football matters. This is in a whole different realm from Miami, Auburn, Cecil and Cam, Tressel, Reggie Bush etc. This is the lowest-of-the-LOW, and the disgrace is, must and deserves to be TOTAL--there is no such thing here as "going to far" in SHAMING the people that made this possible, allowed it to continue for so long.
I don't think it is overstating things to say that this sort of sticking-with-the-status-quo, like "I was only following orders", was judged unacceptable at Nuremburg, and is no less so here.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I will focus on beating the Cocks, and not what Joe Pa saw or did not see in the showers at Penn Station. The following chart compares the OL (LG, LT, C, RT, and RG) and DL (DT, DE, and LB for the 4-3 or NT, DE, and LB for the 3-4).



LSU UF Alabama Auburn UGA VU SC Average
OL Ht 77 76 76 77 76 77 76 76.4
OL Wt 309 299 314 308 327 289 307 307.6
OL Exp 2.2 3 1.8 1.6 2.2 2 1 2.0

DL Ht 75 74 75 76 75 74 75 74.9
DL Wt 250 264 275 249 278 254 264 262.0
DL Exp 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.4 1.6 2 2 1.9

That chart shows another trend here. LSU's offensive linemen are about 15 pounds larger than ours (comparing OL to OL, not our OL to their DL...for relative size of each time as an indication of strength, conditioning, and recruiting) and were manhandling us. Alabama's were 10 pounds larger and were also manhandling us. The only offensive line similar in size is Vanderbilt and we did pretty well in the trenches with them. Now look at our defensive line. Oddly enough, LSU has one of the smallest defenses up front, because they have cover linebackers. That is how they beat Alabama--with faster linebackers.

Look at Florida. Our defense averages an inch shorter than the rest of the SEC defenses, but our weight and experience are within the average. The defense usually holds up until it gets tired in the 3rd and 4th quarters without the backups to give the starters a rest. On offense, only Vanderbilt is as small as us, but we have the most experienced offensive line.

Compare Florida directly to South Carolina. Our offensive and defensive lines are nearly identical in size, but ours have more experience. This tells me that just based on size and experience, we should be able to take control of the line of scrimmage. We should not get blown off the line like we have against LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
All too true, E-, and possibly still beside the point, sadly enough...for whatever reasons--injuries, conditioning depth have all been undercurrents that have been whispered about, while I say it all comes down to heart and character--our lines have been emblematic of our general failure to come through against roughly equal talent. Hope it's different this week, I know the coaches are doing everything THEY can, but I just feel we may have too many whiners and quitters on the present squad to EVER get down, get tough and rise to the occasion.
 

totenkopf13

Gator Fan
Heart and character are severely lacking on this squad. The ability to play smash mouth football against an equally matched opponent, at least on paper, remains to be seen this year. Who is playing, and at what capacity, is a major variable this week as far as a win is concerned.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Heart and character are severely lacking on this squad. The ability to play smash mouth football against an equally matched opponent, at least on paper, remains to be seen this year. Who is playing, and at what capacity, is a major variable this week as far as a win is concerned.

Very good observation! No amount of statistics can capture that. We should create a stat for it. 100% heart and effort = 1 Tebow.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Exactly what I'm looking for, guys:
A 1-Tebow effort from every player on our team, right?
 

mjfan23

VIP Member
Does Muschamp need this win?

Im not tlaking about for his future with florida. Im just talking about to "win" over the doubters? Or to possibly "win" over some of his own team?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
On one hand I want to say that the season is already shot and we are jockeying for Gator Bowl, Liberty Bowl, or Toilet Bowl. On the other hand I want Muschamp to make some signature wins.
 

CaliZona_Gator

Super Senior Member
Does Muschamp need this win?

I think it is really important that we either beat USC or FSU. If we lose to both we will finish .500, but with a win against at least one of those opponents we finish over .500 and have the satisfaction of beating another decent team.
 

InkedAdrenaline

VIP Member
YES we need this win. But more importantly we need to play the right players. Bench Brantley, put Brisset in as qb and that opens up the run game for demps,Rainey,gillislee. Plus I firmly believe brisset has a more accurate arm than Brantley...
 

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