Official Game Thread: #10 Florida Gators 41, #8 Michigan Wolverines 15, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl 12/29/18

[Escambia94]

The 2018 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl will be played on December 29, 2018. It will be the 51st edition of the Peach Bowl, and the second Peach Bowl to be played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Peach Bowl will be one of the College Football Playoff New Year's Six bowl games. The 10-2 (8-1) Michigan Wolverines are favored by 7.5 over the 9-3 (5-3) Florida Gators.

Why Michigan will win:

• Michigan scores 18.2 points in the 1st half, while Florida scores just 13.7. It edges a bit closer as Michigan scores 18.7 points in the 2nd half, while Florida scores 16.1. The defensive statistics favor Michigan, as well, as they average just 8.9 allowed in the 1sthalf and 8.7 in the 2nd half to Florida’s 11.2 and 11.7, respectively.

Why Florida will win:

• Florida averages 5.1 yards per carry, while Michigan averages 5.0 yards per carry. Florida’s defense averages allowing 4.2 yards per carry, Michigan averages just 3.4 per (but will be without the aforementioned Rashan Gary who had 3.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss on the season).

Why this game might end in a tie:

• Florida ranks 101st in the country in percentage of passing plays on offense, while Michigan ranks 113th. Contrarily, they rank 24th and 25th in rushing offense.
• Both Florida and Michigan average +0.6 turnover margin per game on the year.

 

[DRU2012]

Far as I can tell, the stats support both my "gut feeling" AND past-performance indicators: Coach Dan and the '18 Gators will have to go against the seeming "tide of history" (not to mention a Harbaugh AND UM TEAM need for "emotional redemption" after getting EMBARRASSED in the Big Ten Conference finale by their ultimate rivals, Meyer's Buckeyes).
Our Coach will have to somehow conjure some magic, pull the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" in preparing this Gator squad to rise above their own former bad habits AND all the different reasons so many as individuals might have for already "moving on" emotionally themselves, come together once more AS A TEAM and beat a team they are at LEAST as talented as--and whose future they will outshine as a PROGRAM in every way. The question now is, will that GATOR TEAM show up, ready to play, or a collection of its remnants "on their way" elsewhere?

 

[Escambia94]

Using S&P data, Florida has a win probability of 33%, and Michigan is favored by 7.5.

Again based on S&P data, if Florida played Michigan's schedule would be 10-2 with losses to Notre Dame by 5.2 and Ohio State by 5.1. For comparison, Michigan was projected to go 12-0 in its own schedule using S&P data, and 12-0 in Florida's schedule, including a 1.2 point victory over Georgia. My final comparison is Florida's projection against its own schedule, 10-2 with losses to Mississippi State and Georgia.

What this tells us is that Florida is performing at one loss more than its statistical projection, and Michigan is two losses more than its projection. Against one another's schedules Florida would have one more victory and Michigan would have two more (although I personally disagree with that assessment). In simpler terms, Michigan is underperforming and Florida is about where it should be. Throw in the fact that Michigan's two biggest stars are sitting out the bowl game, and I think the Gators have a real chance at the upset.

 

[DRU2012]

Hope you're right, E--. Got a feeling our best hope lies in Coach Dan having his team fired up--and best chance of THAT seems to ride on competition on the field going into NEXT season being a part of these extra weeks of preparation, PLUS a wide open game plan on BOTH sides of the ball, in EVERY phase of the game involving our young players in the excitement of "what is to come" AND the chance to show what they can do in that "Future Gator Show".

 

[Escambia94]

A year after going 4-7 with McDeathThreats and Shannon it was easy for Mullen to motivate the Gators throughout the season and into the bowl game. Bowl games are usually treated as rewards for the veterans, and playing opportunities for the younger players. I think the veterans will play hard in order to erase the bad memories of 2017. The younger players recruited by Mullen or who have toughened up under Mullen and Savage are going to play hard. Unlike previous years, the Gators do not have any prima donnas on the team. Here is the bowl history for Florida going back arbitrarily to 2010. Some of the kids on this roster have lost to Michigan twice and might be motivated to avenge those losses. Some remember what it is like to miss a bowl game and will live it up.

• 2018 Dec 29, 2018 Sat Peach Bowl Michigan Michigan Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, Georgia
• 2017 N/A
• 2016 Jan 2, 2017 Mon Outback Bowl Florida 30 Iowa 3 Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, Florida
• 2015 Jan 1, 2016 Fri Citrus Bowl Michigan 41 Florida 7 Orlando, FL
• 2014 Jan 3, 2015 Sat Birmingham Bowl Florida 28 East Carolina 20 Birmingham, AL
• 2013 N/A
• 2012 Jan 2, 2013 Wed Sugar Bowl Louisville 33 Florida 23 New Orleans, LA
• 2011 Jan 2, 2012 Mon Gator Bowl Florida 24 Ohio State 17 Jacksonville, FL
• 2010 Jan 1, 2011 Sat Outback Bowl Florida 37 Penn State 24 Tampa, FL

Michigan is limping into the bowl game after getting thrashed by Ohio State. They have some entitlement issues in their locker room. They have two blue chip players sitting out to prepare for the NFL. Their veterans have been to enough bowl games to possibly make this one boring.

• 2018 Dec 29, 2018 Sat Peach Bowl Michigan Michigan Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, Georgia
  
• 2017 Jan. 1, 2018 Outback Bowl South Carolina L 19-26 Jim Harbaugh
  
• 2016 Dec. 30, 2016 Orange Bowl Florida State L 32-33 Jim Harbaugh
  
• 2015 Jan 1, 2016 Citrus Bowl Florida W 41-7 Jim Harbaugh
  
• 2014 N/A
• 2013 Dec. 28, 2013 Buffalo Wild Wings Kansas State L 14-31 Brady Hoke
  
• 2012 Jan. 1, 2013 Outback South Caroliina L 28-33 Brady Hoke
  
• 2011 Jan. 3, 2012 Sugar Virginia Tech W 23-20 (OT) Brady Hoke
  
• 2010 Jan. 1, 2011 Gator Mississippi State L 14-52 Rich Rodriguez

Edit: The Gators went 3-4 under Jim McDeathThreats, 1-3 under Randy Shannon. Thank you, @Leakfan12 for the correction.

 

[Leakfan12]

Actually @Escambia94 it was 4-7 under MacDeathThreats and Shannon. The last four games are counted under Shannon.

 

[DRU2012]

Interesting...I find that I have in effect "blanked OUT" that whole "interlude" of disorganized confusion during which we now have to assign "technical responsibility" to Shannon, etc--I don't analyze or even think about it now in any retrospective detail.
It really does feel as if we have suddenly and quite recently emerged somehow from a long period in a cloud, some "hazy shade of winter", as the line from the Paul Simon song put it.
The GOOD news is that we do seem to have truly "EMERGED" from it now: Don't y'all feel it too? I certainly wouldn't, COULDN'T have said it at any similiar "post-seasonal" point before now. One of those things that is "CLEARLY NOTABLE IN ITS ABSENCE"!

 

[Escambia94]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/CFAPeachBowl/status/1078687120963915777?s=19
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[Escambia94]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/CFAPeachBowl/status/1078663410756263936?s=19
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[Escambia94]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/CFAPeachBowl/status/1078126824813662208?s=19
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Michigan defeated Florida 3-2 in the pregame games.

 

[Escambia94]

The betting line has moved from -7.5 to -6.0. Michigan is projected to win 24-17. I think the Gators will pull off an upset, 21-14.

 

[Leakfan12]

Also, how does everyone feel about people skipping their bowl games? I know the Gators benefit because Michigan is losing 3-4 starters. One hand, finish the season Another hand it beats having players half-assing it so they can prevent injury before the draft.

 

[Escambia94]

Also, how does everyone feel about people skipping their bowl games? I know the Gators benefit because Michigan is losing 3-4 starters. One hand, finish the season Another hand it beats having players half-assing it so they can prevent injury before the draft.

I think it depends on the situation. Remember that NCAA athletes are required to have $90k of medical coverage (before Catastrophic Injury Coverage, CIC, takes over), and they have the option to take part in disability insurance for $8k per $1M of coverage, Exceptional Student-Athlete Disability Insurance (ESDI). Also keep in mind that in the state of Florida (and most states) there is no guarantee of any medical coverage beyond graduation or the termination of school enrollment.

That being said, seniors who are draft-eligible should not risk injury in a football game. Some positions are more susceptible to career-ending injuries than others. Seniors, especially the graduates, who get injured in a bowl game are not guaranteed CIC or ESDI if they suffer a serious injury in a bowl game in the senior year, especially after graduation. Those players are at the mercy of the university to offer up a "medical hardship scholarship" to help with recovery, but they are not under legal obligation to do so.

Some players need as much video exposure and possible to the last minute in order to impress scouts. Draft eligible players who are not QBs or RBs are wise to skip the bowl game unless they know they have a late draft grade.

Michigan leads the country with three players skipping the 2018 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, as Rashan Gary, Devin Bush Jr. and Karan Higdon have all opted to sit out. Bush is still not cleared to play football after his injury, so this was a no-brainer. He needs this time to work deals with his agent and his medical staff. Higdon is a graduated senior with plenty of video coverage, a college diploma, no more eligibility, and no more medical or disability coverage. For Gary this is a good business decision. He could go in round 1 without an injury, or not at all if injured.

This begs the question about Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Jachai Polite. Both are juniors who could rescind draft declaration in case of injury.

Now consider Will Grier, although he is no longer a Gator. Not only does Grier have a diploma and possibly zero medical coverage, but also a kid. I am not sure how many Gators have kids, but that is element of discussion missing in most ESPN boards.

In summary, do not be too quick to judge all college athletes harshly on their decisions to skip bowl games. Sometimes the economics drive the situation, and not in a greedy way.

 

[Escambia94]

5th-year senior Juwann Bushell-Beatty is the fourth Michigan player opting to skip the bowl game.

 

[Escambia94]

Tyrie Cleveland will sit out the bowl game due to lingering injuries from the broken collarbone he suffered last month.

 

[DRU2012]

Tyrie Cleveland will sit out the bowl game due to lingering injuries from the broken collarbone he suffered last month.

Now, HE'LL be missed...NOT sure if the ultimately complex yes/no predictive chains involved with some of these many other such decisions, but we WILL miss CLEVELAND'S presence out there today.
But it's "next man up!" now, all the way--and we have BOTH, TALENTED back-ups AND even MORE "promising" freshmen due to step forward now anyway--it's all just come a half-season early: ...instead of it being a matter of "Here I AM!" with the start of the 2019-20 Season, they have a sudden chance for fame, heroics and eventual FORTUNE to end the 2018-19 one after all!

 

[DRU2012]

Also, how does everyone feel about people skipping their bowl games? I know the Gators benefit because Michigan is losing 3-4 starters. One hand, finish the season Another hand it beats having players half-assing it so they can prevent injury before the draft.

I think it depends on the situation. Remember that NCAA athletes are required to have $90k of medical coverage (before Catastrophic Injury Coverage, CIC, takes over), and they have the option to take part in disability insurance for $8k per $1M of coverage, Exceptional Student-Athlete Disability Insurance (ESDI). Also keep in mind that in the state of Florida (and most states) there is no guarantee of any medical coverage beyond graduation or the termination of school enrollment.

That being said, seniors who are draft-eligible should not risk injury in a football game. Some positions are more susceptible to career-ending injuries than others. Seniors, especially the graduates, who get injured in a bowl game are not guaranteed CIC or ESDI if they suffer a serious injury in a bowl game in the senior year, especially after graduation. Those players are at the mercy of the university to offer up a "medical hardship scholarship" to help with recovery, but they are not under legal obligation to do so.

Some players need as much video exposure and possible to the last minute in order to impress scouts. Draft eligible players who are not QBs or RBs are wise to skip the bowl game unless they know they have a late draft grade.

Michigan leads the country with three players skipping the 2018 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, as Rashan Gary, Devin Bush Jr. and Karan Higdon have all opted to sit out. Bush is still not cleared to play football after his injury, so this was a no-brainer. He needs this time to work deals with his agent and his medical staff. Higdon is a graduated senior with plenty of video coverage, a college diploma, no more eligibility, and no more medical or disability coverage. For Gary this is a good business decision. He could go in round 1 without an injury, or not at all if injured.

This begs the question about Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Jachai Polite. Both are juniors who could rescind draft declaration in case of injury.

Now consider Will Grier, although he is no longer a Gator. Not only does Grier have a diploma and possibly zero medical coverage, but also a kid. I am not sure how many Gators have kids, but that is element of discussion missing in most ESPN boards.

In summary, do not be too quick to judge all college athletes harshly on their decisions to skip bowl games. Sometimes the economics drive the situation, and not in a greedy way.

Definitely a "case by case" situation far as any judgement on our part.
Don't get me wrong: For what its worth, the decision is all part of a public process that basically INVITES such examination and ultimately very PUBLIC approval/DISapproval "from the cheap seats" out here...It's ALL a "two-edged blade" that cuts BOTH ways! In the end, if WE are indeed "wounded" (frustration, disappointment, WHATEVER) in that "process", it serves us right for "playing" along in the FIRST place!

 

[DRU2012]

(Personally, I'm now getting that gnawing, hours-til-kick-off, pit-of-my-stomach clutching tightness in my gut down below that starts slicing thru me about now on gamedays against tough opponents...
Guess I may have to start switching over to "Alien", as a "relaxing alternative" to the growing tension now building in the usual way, for the usual reasons over here on ESPN...)

 

[DRU2012]

...for what its worth--I say that, will be DOING IT (have already begun: Have it all set up to be doing all three--monitoring GE AND ESPN AND IFC and so on now) from now til kickoff...

 

[DRU2012]

Well, I probably made a mistake, kept drinking coffee (brewed a 2nd pot) too long this morn, since dawn...
...And it's weird being "the OTHER game", the "warm up", in effect "table setter for the MAIN action" today--no matter HOW much I told myself to be ready for that ahead of time. The reality of it here, our game hardly mentioned except now and then, here'n'THERE among all the magnifying-glass examination of every DETAIL of these semi-final CFB games coming up on the same channel AFTER our game here on ESPN kicking off in less than an HOUR now.
Clearly, we have GOT to get BACK into all of that, and soon. This morning's TV experience has rubbed/IS RUBBING my FACE in it now. ALL our faces, right?
And THAT'S what all this is ABOUT, for us anyway, now. And part of all that is the very fact that though it's huge for US, it really doesn't seem to matter that much to these yapping "image verifiers" WHO actually WINS this PEACH Bowl... and frankly, in the wider, "Big Picture" view, I suppose maybe they're RIGHT: Though nationally there'll be TALK about the outcome after-the-fact, outside our respective "Nations", Gator and/or Wolverine, it'll fade quickly and soon after the actual winner be mainly a footnote "explaining" the final rankings for the 2018 season--itself mainly just part of "the footnotes" surrounding the aftermath of however these last "3 main games" turn out.
Sure, we WANT to WIN, finish on an "UP", earn as high a (albeit near-irrelevant) "final national ranking" as POSSIBLE as recruitong/bragging rights and heading into NEXT season: ANY "WIN" will do that, a BIG win all the more so.
But let's face facts: In the end EVERYTHING is aimed at, is in the service OF taking that next step, making it INTO that "Football Final Four" ASAP--NEXT year, if possible!!!
We are the Florida GATORS. We're not "here to be noticed"...
We are here to play for, be a PART OF that NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP discussion. You KNOW that's what Coach DAN has in mind, what HE is here for, came here KNOWING that's the ONLY "bottom line", the soul "ultimate goal".
So yes, this season has been "successful" in terms of getting us "turned around", exceeding expectations"--REDRAWING those "expectations" restoring them to what they "SHOULD be"--to what, deep down", every Gator fan EXPECTS their players and LEADERS to EXPECT OF THEMSELVES, year by year once more.
This is the SEC. We needed to get BACK to "expecting to compete for dominance in the SEC East"--'cause THAT by extension means competing for NATIONAL dominance. So for us, that team with the "G" on its helmet will now ALSO have a bullseye on its BACK come the next COCKTAIL PARTY--and THEN on to Atlanta and what will soon become for a time our annual tilt with that team currently dominating the SEC West...until THEIR "time" finally, inevitably fades once more and WE RE-establish OUR SEC ascendance.
That's "The Plan", at any rate.
Time to get to it. Today's Peach Bowl won't do much for anyone's but OUR view of "The Future", but how we see ourselves, how far and fast we ARE "coming along" and a realistic gauge of where we are along that path will DEFINITELY be affected--and the more we see and KNOW, the better for us overALL in the (hopefully not SO) long run.
So, once again:
GO GATORS!!!