Harry Truman once famously declared, "There are lies, DAMN lies, and Statistics."
Somehow, the whole numbers/percentages predictive modes in modern college football have crossed a line, gotten ridiculously out of control this season...It crept up on us, but at this point for example we have found ourselves with a computer ranking system that somehow has CLEMSON as the "top-ranked"--as in "most likely to win the CFB"--team over Alabama, 84% to 82%.
Now, statistics can, in many cases ARE wonderful analytic tools that offer deep, calculable insights into what coaches, players, TEAMS have been doing--and what prospective opponents CAN do to exploit it. How that plays out can well-predict how those confrontations turn out.
But when it comes to simply reading "what we the fans have seen", "what our team might do against a particular opponent", and/or "what'll be the likeliest outcome", well, the more general the ultimate resolution one is trying to read and predict, the more it won't be "the stats" but "The EYE TEST", the totality of what we've seen and all the various situational details all have witnessed--not just the final scores but how they GOT that way--that will tell us in our GUTS who is the best at what.
So, I ask ANYONE who isn't a terminal homer, "Who's been BY FAR the best team this season in NCAA Football?"
No one has to say it, we all know. Which is my point here. Going to the FFF (Football Final Four) this year means having a loss in your final game--likely a rather lopsided one--unless you play for the Tide.
In fact, this is a very strange year, in which I predict that AT LEAST one team (maybe more) that DOESN'T make it into the playoff round instead will play in one of the old now-mainly-"Prestige" Bowls (Orange, Sugar, Rose or even Cotton) over the holidays around New Years (and still widely watched and enjoyed nationally)--and one or two of the winners from these will finish THEIR season(s) with an impressive win that lands them HIGHER in the final National Rankings than at least one, perhaps SEVERAL of those teams that ended THEIR seasons going to what turned out to seem in retrospect their "inevitable executions" in the playoffs.
Like I said: A weird season, all around.
And in that vein, in a season where NO ONE but our own
@Escambia94, saw it coming, our new Head Coach, with the same QB took virtually the same roster that went 4-and-8 last season to a Top 10 ranking entering the Cocktail Party, part of the playoff CONVERSATION at least, and a chance to truly "arrive early on the national scene" with a win. But few give us much chance: Watch the CFB shows on ESPN, "Big Game of the week", but they all assume a Bulldogs win.
So: What are our chances? I expect there are a number of different answers, from a number of different angles, using a number of different approaches--running the gamut from gut-level intuitive impression to statistical analysis. I have my own ideas--and they arise from both of the above perspectives--and maybe that's why I just can't get a solid read on this one at the moment. I KNOW we are not "there" yet--not even CLOSE to where Coach Mullen is aiming and I strongly, thoroughly BELIEVE he will take us in the years ahead--in fact, I am so excited to realize he doesn't have anywhere NEAR the tools he needs and WILL have, and yet has managed this much with so relatively "little": We are gonna get there even sooner than I'd HOPED. Still, as I say, we aren't anywhere near "there" yet. But we ARE "here" now: Can we win THIS one, finish strong for a thrilling, amazing "first step"? What will it take?
I'll wait to say a lot of what I think, feel and/or hope in response to y'all's thoughts here--but I will say this much right here and now:
Of all the various things anyone can say about our strengths so far, our improvements and our weaknesses, the one person upon whom obviously so much of our clear improvement on offense has depended upon HIS improvement has of course been Fillipe Franks. With the help and guidance of our Head Coach, Franks has taken great and steady strides; but he will somehow HAVE to take another enormous step forward for this one.
I don't know that our Coach, "QB-Whisperer" or no, can do much more than point the way here: For what Fillipe I believe will have to find and begin to incorporate as a regular part of his game now is DOWNFIELD ACCURACY. With that, everything opens up for us on offense: We pop a coupla long ones that way early, maybe jump on them with a couple of explosive plays for touchdowns in the first quarter--and we can run away with this thing. But even just hitting ONE fairly early, showing we can DO it, and the whole complexion of this game changes. They are gonna pack the box, try and strangle our running and short passing game--DARE Franks to "beat us with that questionably accurate arm of yours, kid..." If he shows he might have one after all, they'll be back on their heels: as happens sometimes, it'll be a challenge--and an OPPORTUNITY.
Of course, Mullen sees that. But accuracy, of all things, is not something you just "add over the by-week". Either our QB has more of it than he's shown and our Head Coach and staff are somehow successful in an ongoing behind-the-scenes effort to bring it out, some combination of practice, mind/emotion adjustment, play-design and selection that, properly timed, manifests itself as "the right play at the right time, properly executed", and in turn leads to big scores that also force scrambling (and exploitable) readjustment in the opponents' defensive scheme.
Otherwise we put this too much on the defense, I'm afraid, who eventually get worn down in an otherwise valient effort--a game perhaps close until late--but like I always say: I don't BELIEVE in "moral victories", especially against UGA. Had our hearts ripped out too many times over the years: If we did it to them 50 times in a row it wouldn't be enough for me now.
So now's the time and this is the place:
Tell me your thoughts on how we win THIS ONE.
