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Of Streaks, Luck, Pressure and Expectations

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Not that ANY of us care to dwell on the details OR the outcome of this last game—but there are some things I realize, more I think about it, that I wanna talk about while I have the chance (but after this, I take my own advice and MOVE ON...):
There are so many issues and influences at work on so many levels when a weird streak is on the line, and they affect people, teams and the just as many “games WITHIN the game”, that they not only unexpectedly entangle both sides in unexpected ways, they end up affecting both teams’ and individuals’ EMOTIONAL balance, EVEN AS BOTH SIDES CONSCIOUSLY DENY IT. In fact, it is often so much a multi-leveled effect that does whatever it does “under the radar” that it can end up being unclear whether it somehow played a part in all the “strange-bounce”/“weird call” occurrences that seem to in turn always end up playing THEIR part in the “luck” that ultimately DECIDES such games. And “streaks” develop in the first place with strings of such “weird luck”, coming repeatedly over the course of years, going the way of the team WITH the dominating streak.
That certainly had been the case for us vs UK...culminating in last year’s succession of mistakes, bounces and calls that led to our coming BACK on them at their place to win one we probably shouldn’t have. That’s the kind of thing that was worrying me coming into this game—for elusive reasons I hint at above, I knew that this sort of thing eventually evens out—and the more that “reversal of fortune” is resisted, somehow put off as “luck” keeps blocking any “evening out of the odds of occurrences”, the more sudden and tsunami-like the crushing wave of breaks, bad luck or otherwise, AGAINST the streak-dominator, hits them. But the very nature of how the momentum of unlikely “good fortune” up til then runs makes it sudden and unexpected when it DOES finally come: As is often the case and was so here, til the very END it could have again gone the other way.
Consider the TWO odd, long shot occurrences AGAINST UF in the 4th qtr: First was that questionable call on the fieldgoal—Not reviewable, But EVERY REPLAY (during telecast and SINCE) appears to show it was INSIDE THE PYLON; Not only was it probably good, but fact is that 99 times out of a hundred NO CREW would have called it the way they did in a close game at that level...It wasn’t just the call being wrong, but the fact that they would choose then and there to make it that was DEFINITELY a long odds “bad luck call”. If counted, then the whole situation when Gators get the ball back late in the 4th qtr is different: They are at that point likely within 2 points and Franks doesn’t NEED the “Hail Mary”. He prob just needs to move us into their territory: With a kid on our bench who made a 60+ yarder last year in high school, we get it to say their 42 yard line and we get a shot at beating them by 1 point again. Not saying we DESERVED it, but the whole STREAK thing would still be in play, an issue (and situation) that carried on...We’d be happy in the aftermath, but given everything else we saw out there, it wouldn’t change ANYTHING except our record at this point (and a whole lot of blah blah blah media bs I am sick to death of in ANY event)—and the factors and warnings I note here would still be there, building further to potentially dog us later.
Even MORE so, what in fact ensued, and what could have, almost DID happen would have exaggeratedly epitomized everything I warn of here: That last play of the game, with all its weirdness, and the “strange bounces” that made it possible (and led more than anything else to a falsely lopsided score, btw), almost came out differently indeed:
Right before the eventual UK player-with-the-ball finally noticed and heeded his Coach’s heated screams to “run to the endzone!!!”, there was a confused pause, BOTH squads thinking the play was over but no one having heard a whistle, apparently an incomplete pass...At that point, the Gator offensive blocker-turned-defender who had rushed over to the UK player who’d picked up the seeming incomplete pass on a bounce, to stop him “just in case”, that Gator stood against him and reached for the ball—and the Wildcat began to HAND IT TO HIM...If HE hadn’t heard/heeded his coach’s calls (Stoops by that time on the field running toward his player screaming), he likely LETS our guy take the ball—and then, well, WHO KNOWS WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?!! At the very least, we get another shot, and the discussion is ALL about that questionable “no good” call on the Gator fieldgoal and its impact on “the streak”...and IF that Gator takes off, runs it the other way and SCORES, well, we’re still LAUGHING even now, UK is devastated—and frankly, though I’m then probably just as much as anyone LOVING that outcome, the truth, what I’m saying here, is that sooner or later all this sort of thing was gonna come BACK on us anyway: We are not yet enough the “Team we’re GONNA be”, the team and program Mullens is in the process of building here now, ANYWAY, to realize any of the kinds of goals and expectations we have for the “team and program we AIM to be”. To expect that means we are living in the past--for we are NOT that elite team now, not yet. No way. If there’s one thing amply shown by everything else preceding the 4th qtr of that game Saturday, it was that we still have a ways, a substantial ways to go, to be anything LIKE that again.
This was as good a time as any to lose one, break the streak and MOVE ON. Start over. Dispense with all the “weird mojo” and let Mullens remake us in his own image: Create a complete unit that has the talent, system and ATTITUDE that wins as a result of vision, talent, time and hard work...wins because we are GOOD, and does so with consistency.
For now, we are still a “work in progress”; clearly there are too many missing pieces and questions across-the-board to expect anything more than some disappointments, at best interspersed with stirring moments where we “rise to the occasion”, show glimpses of what we’ll be—and hopefully some good wins.
As for UK, well, let them have their relief, even if their joy has them exceeding their rational expectations visa vi the future. I will say this: THIS was what you could manage AT YOUR BEST, with everything breaking your way against us AT OUR WORST. Crowing, trying to rub it in with loud talk about how you’ve “DRAINED THE SWAMP” is not just unrealistic but unwise...it plays with fire. With Mullens here and in charge now, we will be pretty damn good, pretty damn soon.
Do not tweak the Gator’s tail. You only get him angry, give him reason to remember and be all the more determined to make you pay. Might have been smarter (not to mention classier) to stand up, shake hands, say “Good game” like it WASN’T (for y’all) some towering event, and generally try to keep it civil. But maybe y’all just HAD to make the most of it all as you could—‘cause deep down you KNOW what’s comin’ for ya, soon and OFTEN, ONCE AGAIN.
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
In fairness, Gators had their close games against Kentucky 3 of the four previous season before this season. 2014 they went to triple overtime just to beat them, 2015 won by five, and 2017 LDR and the team pulled a miracle out of their @$$e$ winning by 1. The field goal should have been review and your right the Gators wouldn't have needed a Hail Mary to win though unsure if the kicker would have made it that far (kick 6 anyone?). Maybe he would have maybe he wouldn't who knows. We can't worry about the UK game anymore. We got most of the season to worry about like can they beat McDummies old school (who beat Arkansas)? UT there? Georgia? Muschomp's C---S? FSU?
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
In fairness, Gators had their close games against Kentucky 3 of the four previous season before this season. 2014 they went to triple overtime just to beat them, 2015 won by five, and 2017 LDR and the team pulled a miracle out of their @$$e$ winning by 1. The field goal should have been review and your right the Gators wouldn't have needed a Hail Mary to win though unsure if the kicker would have made it that far (kick 6 anyone?). Maybe he would have maybe he wouldn't who knows. We can't worry about the UK game anymore. We got most of the season to worry about like can they beat McDummies old school (who beat Arkansas)? UT there? Georgia? Muschomp's C---S? FSU?
Exactly. Just wanted to acknowledge "all that stuff", fully "clear the air" and now, with a "clear" mind, conscience and view of the road ahead, MOVE ON.
And what's out there? More than ever, we've STILL got our usual "tough schedule" ahead--with all the KNOWN obstacles you note, lf.
And you can BET on all kinds of unexpected, unforeseen ones! But given the cold-splash-of-water-in-the-face this last one delivered to our idea of what we're PLAYING for this season. Expectations now (perhaps deservedly, certainly more realisticly) redrawn, like our team we need to approach each contest as distinct battles with NO guarantees of stromg net advantage going into each. But long as we hunker down, settle in and continue to learn, grow, adapt and come together as a group, with collective "shoulders to the wheel", we should acquit ourselves with pride and honor, and compete well in every game...Probably NOT gonna win them all, may even revert and look poorly at times, but we'll win our share--and if we CAN continue to progress as I have described (admittedly "in HOPE" above, and as our Head Coach promises, indeed has intended, planned and aimed at in every move a d statement since he accepted the "job-offer"), we will in the course of the games ahead accomplish exactly what more and more it seems this season was going to be, NEEDED to be about all along.
No: Even with the great disappointment and necessary "retrenched expectations" of the early loss ("to UK, of all people!!!"--ok ok time to just let it go, Gators), we still have much to watch, see and PLAY for in a season that clearly was never gonna be even a "flirtation with former greatness";
Personally, I was and am SICK of the "false promise"-type seasons our last 2 Coaches somehow managed to pull from flawed programs and squads...In retrospect, THEIR "talent" was more in the service of "LOOKING like winners" with what talent they had right then, than in facing facts and BUILDING FOR AND TO TRUE LONGTERM SUCCESS. In this way, each was just basically a high-priced "Rent-a-Coach"...Even worse, "Rent-a-GATORS"!!!
Not so MULLENS. But just as it is time to look and MOVE forward, I won't dwell (waste time) on the deeper aspects and details of the past here any longer;
Nope: We finally have the guy who can and I truly believe WILL do all the things needed to create a "culture of success", a new "tradition of highest standards and elite play", year in, year out.
THIS season, game by game, should for us be one of noting, hopefully much-as-possible ENJOYING our positive progress, more and more a MARCH towards a steadily clearing picture of what we are ON THE WAY TO BECOMING.
So, in direct response to your point, lf, and concerns regarding how we’ll fare in the those “GAMES ahead”, let’s start with the NEXT one: Like all of you I’ll trust E— to present a somehow both succinct AND detailed overview concerning who and what we’ll be facing, along with the general up-to-the-minute state of both squads (especially our own, of course) going into it (Sorry, E—: with anyone else that would be unfairly asking/assuming too much investment of time and effort, but you somehow continue to do it with consistency and grace, week in/week out, anyway...), but for my part, I believe first that we’ll bounce back, be ready for it with little in the way of “hangover” from the last one—Not only is this one more benefit of our COACH’S emotional balance and demeanor, but it will have been made a bit easier perhaps by the whole way that lost went down: There was an almost surreal quality, especially to the way it ended, that I think helps to allow EVERYONE to just let it go, step away from it—anyway, the players will be all the more READY to turn their attention to this next opponent, and Coaching and circumstances will render them all the more ready to do so. They ARE still coming into THE SWAMP, and along with our crowd, that’ll be one more thing that they, like want to reestablish, another chance to somewhat redeem themselves. AND we match up well against these guys. After last week, there ARE no “guarantees” with this Gator team—but that is as much a warning that should READY us as one that could drag us down...I expect Mullens and co. to have them loose but ready. I think he’d REALLY like to see us open up hard and fast...get Franks his confidence back, and as we get back the rest of our frontline players, the DEFENSE give a better showing than so far (even in game 1).
Maybe I should be more concerned (what are YOUR thoughts here?), but I’ll be looking for improvement in every aspect of our game—NOT just over last week, but even over the first game...maybe not in the score (I’m not greedy, or sadistic), but in details of preparation, effort and overall performance. Game by game.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Keep in mind that Kentucky finished with more wins than Florida last year. They have last year's #1 rusher in the SEC. They have recruited offensive and defensive line better than Florida since 2014. Florida has been quite lucky to keep the streak alive under Muschamp and McElwain, but they certainly did not deserve many of those wins.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Keep in mind that Kentucky finished with more wins than Florida last year. They have last year's #1 rusher in the SEC. They have recruited offensive and defensive line better than Florida since 2014. Florida has been quite lucky to keep the streak alive under Muschamp and McElwain, but they certainly did not deserve many of those wins.
We'll "deserve" the NEXT one. Mark my words.
(Did you happen to see Mullens' presser, E--? It covered/reinforced all the things that give us hope, even confidence in the future, under this Coach...Again, my comments are over on the "Too Soon to Worry?" thread (was composing it at same time y'all were dropping YOUR latest comments and posts here tonight, or might well have put it here...)
 

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