Sorry, but I'm not gonna be sucked in by the Pats' supposed Gator-connection...THAT was much more a "Meyer-Belichik"-connection (never get that spelling right). I have NEVER liked Belichik (good coach, but the kind of "little jerk with a Napoleon-complex" that I used to bump heads with as a kid), these are Meyer-guys all the way (Hernandez is the only one of the Patriot-Gators who has always shown class; Trattou over on the Giants was a good guy, too), and with few exceptions (#15, obviously; always liked and cheered for Emmit, too--which was a problem since I DESPISED the Cowboys) I don't really follow EX-Gators once they leave and go to the pros. I DO like it when they show Gator-Pride with a Chomp after a big play, but that's about the extent of my interest there.
If I were still a betting man, I suppose I'd take "the Gints" (sic--NYC local-slang) and the (current) 3 1/2 pts. As a team and at QB, they are the better team right now, hot at the right time. They are the more balanced team, too, if both play near their current potential--and that New England defense just isn't very good: even the plodding Ravens offense basically outplayed them, "should have" won it at the end but couldn't finish (they LOST that game; the Pats "D" didn't stop them, no matter WHAT ESPN says). That "D" made Flacco look like Aaron Rogers out there: he played a good game, sure, but he was PERMITTED to. Eli Manning has the game and the tools to take that defense APART. On the other side, that Giant defensive front is going to put a LOT of pressure on Brady. Belichek will have a "plan" to slow that rush, but if the New York "D" can get pressure without blitzing that much Brady and his offense are in big trouble. They just don't have the kind of downhill running-game that can "open up the pass".
You'll hear differently from emotional, over-hyped Patriot fans. This is the perfect situation to take the other guy's money: they'll give you points AHEAD of the Vegas line--and meanwhile, it seems their only chance at victory is to keep it close and nip New York at the end, precisely New York's (and Manning's) modus operandi in a close game. Personally, I expect the Giants to win this one outright. Down here in Texas, the sour-grapes Cowboy fans are of course strongly and uniformly AGAINST "that team from New York", who are their divisional rivals after all, as well. Not quite the "dog in the hunt" that gets them REALLY riled (and free with their wallets), but still...whenever I respond to their typical bluster, however mildly and without rancor, I am challenged to "make it interesting"; I have declined thus far, but the way they start offering more and more points, my long-standing resolution NOT to gamble anymore on anything I don't have direct control over (I still play Poker--and will play Blackjack in a casino, if I think I can get away with it--figure it out) is threatened this time by the rationalization, "Well, it's just a little social bet...20 bucks here and there...", but somehow breaking my "rule" betting with colleagues doesn't strike me as the smartest way to go. On the other hand, these pools for all the amateurs (TRUE "just social betting" if there ever was such a thing) just bug me on principle: it's just THROWING cash away--but then, I'm not really a Lottery-guy either, though there I at least understand the motivation (ie. "It's only a dollar here and there, and if I DID win, everything would be different.", and it really WOULD). I almost never played Keno in Nevada, either, though my wife would--every time we ate, which made those "cheap meals in Vegas" not so cheap after all (though there WAS this ONE time, when we'd both messed up and over-spent and come up short, hung over and depressed in a hotel coffee-shop, when...Oh, never mind--y'all don't need to hear another one of those "I was a winner one time"-stories. Not here, not now).
