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Gameday - Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl - #19 Florida vs #14 Michigan

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
michigan-florida-citrus_zpsjfybhbaa.jpg

Date and time:
Friday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m.
TV channel: ABC
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Stadium: Orlando Citrus Bowl Stadium, 65,000
Teams: #14 Michigan (visitor), #19 Florida (home)
Last year's score: Missouri 33, Minnesota 17
Expected attendance: 48,500
Expected payout for each school: $4.25 million
Last head-to-head result: 2007 - Michigan 41, #12 Florida 35
All-time head-to-head wins: Michigan 2, Florida 0

Michigan (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten)
  • Head coach: Jim Harbaugh, 1st year
  • Last bowl game: 2013 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 14-31 loss to Kansas State
  • All-time bowl record: 20-23
  • Key losses: #21 Utah, #5 Michigan State, #6 Ohio State
  • Key victories: #14 Northwestern
Florida (10-3, 7-1 SEC)
  • Head coach: Jim McElwain, 1st year
  • Last bowl game: 2014 Birmingham Bowl, 28-20 East Carolina
  • All-time bowl record: 21-20
  • Key losses: #23 LSU, #10 FSU, #2 Alabama
  • Key victories: #16 Ole Miss
Head-to-Head Statistics (advantage)(Florida stats - Michigan stats)
  • Scoring margin (Michigan) +7.92 pts (#44) - +13.42 pts (#24)
  • Total offense (Michigan) 338.69 yds (#109) - 387.00 yds (#71)
  • Total defense (Michigan) 295.38 yds (#6) - 281.33 yds (#4)
  • Turnover margin (Florida) +0.77 (#17) - -.50 (#104)
  • Yards per play (Michigan) 5.05 (#108) - 5.57 (#68)
  • Opponent yards per play (Michigan) 4.48 (#8) - 4.22 (#3)
  • Yards per pass attempt (Michigan) 7.22 (#63) - 7.32 (#55)
  • Opponent pass yards per attempt (Michigan) 5.77 (#10) - 5.35 (#1)
  • Rushing yards per attempt (Michigan) 3.44 (#120) - 4.12 (#86)
  • Opponent yards per rushing attempt (Florida) 3.39 (#12) - 3.59 (#25)
  • Opponent win percentage normalized against SOS (Michigan) 52.96% (#30) - 55.54% (#12)
  • Probability of win (Michigan) 41.10% - 58.90%
The Gators certainly have a lot of issues heading into the end of 2015 with lack of depth and play-making ability on the offensive line, at quarterback, and at kicker. The stats heavily favor the Michigan Wolverines heading into the bowl game, but the Gators expect a good bowl game in Jim McElwain's first year as head coach. This will be a preview of the 2017 season opener in the Cowboys Classic at the AT&T Center.
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
Uh, sorry. Third loss in a row, to end the season. Zero offense: Much better coaching than last few years, but much WORSE personel under center and on O-line. Hard to believe--but Treon Harris is that limited (between the ears, most of all). To be able to say that, unequivocally, after busts and mediocrities like Brantley, Brisset, and JD...unreal. In fact, I honestly believe any ONE of those guys would have been a noteable UPGRADE over Treon--and have had us at least IN these last few games (and running AWAY in the ones leading up to 'em).
As it is, y'all might as well face the hard reality: we are in deep sh*t unless/until we get some real alternatives back there. Meanwhile, "hope" just puts eventual frustration and misery in the bank, gathering interest-- to be paid in full less than a month from now, and regularly thereafter until this gets done.
 

DRU2012

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(Ironic, isn't it? Once he got in there, Grier began to look like everything Jeff Driskel was supposed to be but isn't, while once Treon got in (albeit by default), HE turned out to be the "Div 3-minus" version of Jacoby Brisset--and that's probably being overly hard on Jacoby!)
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
So your predicting a similar ending of the 1999 season @DRU2012 ? Sad part more than likely you're right you might be right. There a chance against UM especially if Mac and company look at that Ohio State game.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I will be honest, years of Muschamp have conditioned me to call this season a success. 10 wins? SEC East champions? Top-10 recruiting, with 4* offensive players? Victory over the #3 team in the nation? Going toe-to-toe with the #6 team in the nation, using the second string QB? Things are looking up for the Gators!
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
So your predicting a similar ending of the 1999 season @DRU2012 ? Sad part more than likely you're right you might be right. There a chance against UM especially if Mac and company look at that Ohio State game.
I will be honest, years of Muschamp have conditioned me to call this season a success. 10 wins? SEC East champions? Top-10 recruiting, with 4* offensive players? Victory over the #3 team in the nation? Going toe-to-toe with the #6 team in the nation, using the second string QB? Things are looking up for the Gators!
First off, don't get me wrong: Overall, taken from a "how things looked coming INTO the season"- POV, this one WAS a "success"...Certainly would have seemed so had anyone from-the-not-so-far-future come back and told us what our reg season record would be. Even with a somewhat glossed-over version of what happened at QB and its eventual practical effect on said record, every ONE of us would have said, "We'll TAKE it!". And expected to move on with hope in our hearts.
But that's just it, and in turn takes us to the "second point": In the actual reality of experience, and how it all played out, the truth is that in the end we have in practical terms merely come full-circle to find ourselves BACK in the frustrating (and seeming hopeless) situation we were in the last few years under Muschamp: No QB, thin where it matters on both lines--and overall once again with (despite everything) great defense BUT ABSOLUTELY NO OFFENSE.
If anything, this nightmare/endless bad joke (choose one) for Gators everywhere may be worse than ever. I leave it to all of you to contemplate the many ways this could be so.

However, underneath it all, there does remain "hope"--but out in the real world of "Jimmys and Joes", Mac & Co. will have to excell, quickly, far and wide, in fact better have already begun to do so to a degree and on a scale beyond anything most of us are currently aware of, to bring it off in any timely way.
And it has to be "timely". As in SOON. Or 2016 is more or less lost already, a "rebuilding year" which will leave us on the far fringes: A "step back", in effect a forgone conclusion, record-wise--and without at least one, probably a COUPLE new QBs, with not even a chance of showing real results, at LEAST until Grier returns (and then only for long-view, patient fans who acknowledge this and begin the hunker-down, steal-yourselves-for-a-lot-more-of-same).
Like everyone else here, while I see and understand the reasons for what what's been happening on the field of late, and while I grasp the hard facts that E- and others have noted, examined and used to document our state and present plight, in the end I am just SICK TO DEATH of our impotency--and THAT reality was already tearing me up inside back before we finally started actually LOSING games here at the end, when we had to face decent teams again. I really can't stand it anymore.
Sick as it may be, there is a certain inherent human fascination with bearing witness to sudden catastrophe, trainwrecks and the like. But only psychotics enjoy watching torture (to anyone but lifelong deadly enemies, at any rate). So I can't imagine Gator games being an attractive alternative to anyone nowadays, either broadcasters OR viewers--least of all to most of us here. Well, at least not to ME. And that is damn near unprecedented, in my case.
So, after everything, tremendous strides taken by Mac and his staff, and, on balance, a more "interesting" and yes, "successful" season than any of us had any inkling of or right to expect coming in, here at the end, the regular season now over, in my view the weight and spotlight-of-judgment is right back squarely on the coaches', what they get and what they do with it from here--on MAC'S shoulders and actions once more:
"You're a bright, talented and resourceful guy, Coach Mac. There seems every sign that you are an extraordinary Head Coach. But now you and your people will somehow have to pull not one, but a whole BUNCH of rabbits out of your collective hat."
Sorry--but that was ALWAYS in the fine print of your job description here...
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
There is more to creating a winning team than plugging in the right Jimmys and Joes with the right Xs and Os. The Florida Gators have to play with the cards they have been dealt: they have 50 scholarship players recruited by Muschamp's staff, and one of them is not eligible to play for half the year. Coach Mac cannot bring in another QB in place of Treon Harris until next season, and Jacob Guy and Josh Grady are no better. Next season, there is nothing Coach Mac can do about Will Grier. Does he split half the practice reps between Grier and the season starter, or does he focus the practice reps between the competitive starter candidates and hope Grier catches up quickly in October?

If I were king, I would just run a 90% rushing offense with Treon in the bowl game, then have him move over to slot receiver. I would have Del Rio, Trask, Feleipe, and Eason (if he flips to Florida) compete for the starting position knowing that the competition will add Grier in October. It is that simple.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Michigan's player report:
  • Junior tailback Derrick Green is out
  • Redshirt freshman safety Jabrill Peppers is probably playing possum. Expect him to play.
Florida's player report:

  • Transfer senior right tackle Mason Halter is academically ineligible
  • Senior linebacker Anthony Harrell is academically ineligible
  • Freshman running back Jordan Scarlett has been suspended due to marijuana
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Wolverine players to watch:
  • Jake Rudock — Quarterback — Senior
    Stats. 229-358 (64%) 2,739 yards, 17 TD, 9 INT. Rudock is a product of Saint Thomas Aquinas, and was a teammate or adversary to some of our Gators.
  • Jabril Peppers — Safety/Athlete — RS Freshman
    Stats: Defense: 45 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 10 pass breakups Offense: 18 carries, 72 yards, 2 TD, 8 receptions, 79 yards Returner: 17 punt returns, 194 yards, 8 kick returns, 223 yards. Peppers is all over the field and can singlehandedly change the game for the Wolverines. He is a bit banged up, but expect him to magically heal in time to wreak havoc for the mighty Gators in all phases of the game.
  • Jourdan Lewis — cornerback — Junior
    Stats: 49 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 21 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble. Considered to be as elite as any of Florida's DBs. He will be matched up against Calloway and Robinson.
  • Jake Butt — Tight End — Junior
    Stats: 48 receptions, 620 yards, 3 TD. B1G tight end of the year. Poole and Maye will get stuck covering this 6'6", 250 pound beast. He has more catches than any of our Gator receivers, so expect our safeties to put in some work.
  • Amara Darboh — Receiver — Senior
    Stats: 56 receptions, 703 yards, 5 TD. Darboh, born in war torn Sierra Leone, is a warrior, and is the team's leading receiver. Hargreaves and Tabor will be pretty busy covering this guy.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Was gonna have a hard time watching this one in ANY event--and finally tuned in JUST in time for ANOTHER fg kicking fiasco...How many variations on that have we seen now, just this YEAR??? Just ridiculous. So I'm sorry, but I'm gonna have to stick my head back in the sand for a few more days until THIS season's truly over and we can begin to see/focus on what the future will bring.
I did want to wish you all a Happy New Year, though, and thank you all, my FRIENDS/ Gator Brethren here at GE: You've been more valuable and important to me this year than ever, in a time when the plaintive question, "What next?!!", has repeatedly been more disturbingly answered--then absurdly topped the following week. So THANK YOU, and regardless of today's performance and result, I do believe we can look to the future with hope and excitement.
 

miltongator

Gator Fan
Was gonna have a hard time watching this one in ANY event--and finally tuned in JUST in time for ANOTHER fg kicking fiasco...How many variations on that have we seen now, just this YEAR??? Just ridiculous. So I'm sorry, but I'm gonna have to stick my head back in the sand for a few more days until THIS season's truly over and we can begin to see/focus on what the future will bring.
I did want to wish you all a Happy New Year, though, and thank you all, my FRIENDS/ Gator Brethren here at GE: You've been more valuable and important to me this year than ever, in a time when the plaintive question, "What next?!!", has repeatedly been more disturbingly answered--then absurdly topped the following week. So THANK YOU, and regardless of today's performance and result, I do believe we can look to the future with hope and excitement.
I have hope and excitement for what's to come. I think 2017 will be a great year. 2016 not so much. And, BTW, HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Michigan's player report:
  • Junior tailback Derrick Green is out
  • Redshirt freshman safety Jabrill Peppers is probably playing possum. Expect him to play.
Florida's player report:

  • Transfer senior right tackle Mason Halter is academically ineligible
  • Senior linebacker Anthony Harrell is academically ineligible
  • Freshman running back Jordan Scarlett has been suspended due to marijuana
...Just great. Our most promising "new guy" in the backfield, likely replacement for the departing Taylor (and, it was hoped, MUCH less disappointing), immediately removes himself from any chance at helping to begin to "turn the page" here and now. "Dude, I know you're in college, and it AIN'T the crime of the century--but maybe you should consider what your PRIORITIES are, know what I'm saying???"
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
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I have hope and excitement for what's to come. I think 2017 will be a great year. 2016 not so much.
Agree. Had to laugh, tho...Of course I can't help but figure, if we're being starkly realistic: NOTHING, short of SEVERAL recruiting coups AND some miraculous team-building development can make 2016 anything but one of those dreaded "transitional seasons" that set us UP for big time success later.
 

miltongator

Gator Fan
Agree. Had to laugh, tho...Of course I can't help but figure, if we're being starkly realistic: NOTHING, short of SEVERAL recruiting coups AND some miraculous team-building development can make 2016 anything but one of those dreaded "transitional seasons" that set us UP for big time success later.
Too bad Will F'd up. 2016 would've looked much better.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Not watching--but I gather its goin exactly as I figured/feared (ie. Close for awhile early on, then missed/ blown opportunities, followed by flagging interest on our players' part, and accelerating collapse...). Know this because I'm getting calls and texts from all over along lines of, "What's going on with your team?!!"
Sigh...Only positives I can see from all this are respective realizations on part of our coaches AND fans of our true state, and enormous time and work ahead, still to be faced and (eventually, with patience and HARD WORK) accomplished.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Too bad Will F'd up. 2016 would've looked much better.
Before Will Grier was suspended the Gators were in the top 20 in many offensive statistical categories and in the top in defensive statistical categories. That was a balanced team that could have gone far in 2016. After the suspension the Gators landed in the bottom of most offensive statistical categories, and the defense was barely able to hang on to a top-10 ranking.

Criticize Coach Mac all you want. He and this coaching staff did a great job coaching the Gators up, and we will see a big difference in the next two years with complete recruiting classes and a purge of any leftovers from the Muschamp era.
 

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