Florida Gators Recruit Class of 2012 and Comparison to 2009-2011 Classes

[Escambia94]

All but one of the twelve recruits in the class of 2012 has been cleared for fall football. Given the depleted scholarship roster, we can assume these new recruits may see plenty of action early on. Unfortunately, with the passing of the July 2nd deadline for academic clearing Florida has suffered one setback with four-star defensive lineman Dante Phillips. Dante has been denied admission by the University of Florida, purportedly over the university's stricter academic requirements. Whether or not this is the reason, this may spark some debate over the University of Florida's recruiting practices and may become a dark mark on Muschamp if the media gets a hold of this story. We should hope the best for Dante, wherever he goes next, and hope that Will Muschamp addresses this issue with Dante, his parents, and potential recruits in the Venice area before his reputation as a recruiter gets tarnished. Dante has the size of a gap stopper, unlike hybrid players like Lerentee McCray and Ronald Powell, and could have challenged for an immediate starter role.

Here is a recap on the recruiting class of 2012. The Gators signed 22 of the 25 players allowed (NCAA allows 28, but SEC limits to 25) including 7 early enrollees.

Final class tally: 22.
"Lost commitments": 3
Academically ineligible: 1 (Dante Philips)

In order for the 3-4 scheme to work, some of these 2012 recruits will need to step in quickly at linebacker or in new positions amongst the defensive line.

1. WR - Latroy Pittman (EE, C: 8/7/10)
2. RB - Matt Jones (C: 2/14/11, OV 1/21/12)
3. OLB - Jeremi Powell (C: 2/19/11)
4. OG - Jessamen Dunker (EE, C: 3/21/11)
5. DT - Jafar Mann (C: 3/25/11, OV 1/21/12)
6. SDE - Quinteze Williams (EE, C: 3/30/11)
7. CB - Willie Bailey (EE, C: 4/5/11)
8. TE - Colin Thompson (C: 5/5/11, OV 1/21/12)
9. CB - Brian Poole (C: 6/13/11, OV 1/21)
10. K - Austin Hardin (C: 6/22/11)
11. SS - Rhaheim Ledbetter (C: 7/15/11)
12. FS - Marcus Maye (C: 7/18/11)
13. ILB - Antonio Morrison (EE, C: 8/3/11)
14. OT - DJ Humphries (EE, C: 8/5/11)
15. TE - Kent Taylor (C: 10/27/11)
16. DT - Damien Jacobs (EE from East Mississippi Junior College, C: 12/21/11, LOI)
17. SDE - Jonathan Bullard (C: 1/7/12, USA)
18. SDE - Bryan Cox Jr. (C: 1/21/12)
19. WDE - Alex McCalister (C: 1/23/12)
20. QB - Skyler Mornhinweg (C: 1/28/12, switched from Penn State)
21. WR - Raphael Andrades (C: NSD)
22. WDE/LB - Dante Fowler Jr. FSU C: 1/28/12 - UF C: NSD

The 7 early enrollees (EEs) into the Spring 2012 semester count towards the 2011 class of 17, 1 short of the maximum Florida could have brought in last year. This means that there are actually 15 recruits here in this class, leaving room for 10 more EEs in addition to the forecasted class of 2013.

Florida had 57 scholarship players out of 85 maximum without this incoming class, leaving 28 scholarships available for the incoming class (actually, 25 due to SEC restrictions). With this class taking 22 of those 28 scholarships, there are still only 79 players on scholarship, leaving room for 6 walk-ons, 6 EEs in 2013 (not counting more graduations, transfers, or miscellaneous losses of scholarships) or else those 6 go unclaimed in 2012. For historical sake, the Gators only had 77 on scholarship without walk-ons in 2007, 82 in 2009, but had a full complement of 85 in 2010 (27 recruits in 2010 versus 17 in 2009, thanks to Urban Meyer staying on). In 2011 there were 70, with four of them being walk-ons. That drop-off from 2010 to 2011 is the equivalent of losing an entire recruiting class in one year!

Compare the 2012 class to the 2011 class. The 2011 class is much smaller and it does contain two QBs, but no notable WRs and RBs. Driskel or Brissett will need to emerge as the clear leader, Kyle Christy will need to be more consistent at punter, and A.C. Leonard needs to keep out of trouble.

1. Mike Blakely, RB, transferred out
2. Clay Burton, DL
3. Kyle Christy, PK
4. Jeff Driskel, QB
5. A.C. Leonard, TE, team suspension
6. Javares McRoy, WR, transferred
7. De'Ante "Pop" Saunders, falling down depth chart
8. Jabari Gorman, DB
9. Chris Johnson, DB
10. Tommy Jordan, OL, may gain playing time
11. Hunter Joyer, FB, shows promise as FB
12. Loucheiz Purifoy, DB, looks to gain playing time
13. Marcus Roberson, DB, up-and-down player
14. Valdez Showers, DB, looks very promising
15. Graham Stewart, LB, transferred to UConn
16. Ja'Juan Story, WR
17. Trip Thurman, OL
18. Tevin Westbrook, DL
19. Jacoby Brissett, QB

The 2010 class was at the time one of the greatest hauls by a head coach, before the mass defections. For the most part, this has been an entirely defensive class with only Trey Burton producing on offense. Following the "2-year production rule", this primarily defensive class looks to tear up opposing offenses, especially with most of these Gators seeing two years of action on the field.

1. Neiron Ball, DE/LB, medical issues
2. Trey Burton, QB/TE/WR/RB, look for good things at the hybrid RB position
3. Gerald Christian, TE/LB, transferred
4. Robert Clark, WR/KR, transferred
5. Matt Elam, S, anchors the defense
6. Jordan Haden, S, transferred
7. Leon Orr, DT, needs to stay out of trouble
8. Solomon Patton, WR, shows promise
9. Josh Shaw, CB, transferred
10. Ian Silberman, OL
11. Jaylen Watkins, CB
12. Gideon Ajagbe, LB
13. Mack Brown, RB
14. Adrian Coxson, WR, transfer
15. Jonathan Dowling, S/WR, transfer
16. Quinton Dunbar, WR
17. Chris Dunkley, WR, transfer
18. Dominique Easley, DT
19. Shariff Floyd, DT
20. Chaz Green, OL
21. Darrin Kitchens, LB
22. Michael McFarland, TE, transferred
23. Tyler Murphy, QB
24. Ronald Powell, DE/LB, injured
25. Cody Riggs, CB
26. Michael Taylor, LB
27. Lynden Trail, DE, transfer
28. Trayvon Van, ATH (did not academically qualify, transferred to Marshall)

Who are the seniors and redshirt juniors left from the 2009 recruiting class? There are enough here to provide veteran impact, but they have a ways to go to improve upon their reputation as being weak in 2011.

1. Nick Alajajian, OL
2. Jon Bostic, LB, the anchor of the linebacker corps and potential All SEC
3. Gary Brown, DT
4. Andre Debose, WR, potential star on offense needs a breakout year
5. Josh Evans, DB
6. Dee Finley, S, transferred
7. Mike Gillislee, RB, needs to have a breakout year and prove he does not fall short of expectations, like Moooody
8. Jon Halapio, OG, needs to stay healthy and live up to expectations...no more grading out as champion without on-field production
9. Jonothan Harrison, OL, dependable veteran
10. Edwin Herbert, DT, transferred in JUCO, graduated
11. Jelani Jenkins, LB
12. Kedric Johnson, DE
13. Kyle Koehne, OL
14. Xavier Nixon, OT
15. Desmond Parks, TE, injuries, not on roster
16. Jordan Reed, QB/TE

Here is a quick summary of the recruiting classes in previous years, plus or minus one player due to funny math with recruiting years [amount over the 25 signee limit, amount over 85 scholarship limit, change in available scholarships from last year]:
2006: 27 (estimated 80 scholarship players on opening day) [+2, -5, +1]
2007: 27 (26 minus Cam Newton) (77 scholarship players) [+1, -8, -3]
2008: 23 (84 scholarship players) [-2, -1, +7]
2009: 17 (82 scholarship players) [-8, -3, -2]
2010: 27 (with 9 transfers out, leaving 18) (82 scholarship players) [-9, -3, 0]
2011: 19 (subtract two transfers out, leaving 17) (70 scholarship players) [-8, -15, -12]
2012: 22 (add one JUCO transfer in, for total of 23) (79 scholarship players) [-3, -6, +9]
2013: 21 (pending NSD in April 2013 and addition of more players)(add one D1 transfer)(4 added after FNL in July 2012)

The 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes will need to step up quickly, and they will need to get along with the 2009 and 2010 classes in order to form a cohesive team in order to climb back to the top of the SEC. Right now, it looks like 2013 will be the Gators' strong year, but they will need to build up a strong foundation of experience and toughness in 2012 in order to get the most out of this odd mix of youngsters and veterans.

 

[DRU2012]

There's LOTS of stuff to be mined in these lists and your accompanying breakdowns, E-, and more "breakdowns", too--but one thing that jumps out right away is the degree to which that 2010 class demonstrates how much difference there can be between "experts' ratings and analysis" before members of a particular a recruiting class steps on the field, and what anyone may have to say about them a season or two later, as individuals OR as a group.
Then there's the effect that "coaching change" has on the required "pipeline of talent" to which you allude: When you figure in that drop-off between 2010 and '11, with the erosion of talent and numbers in the '09 and '10 classes, it not only better explains our results the last two seasons, it begins to seem amazing we didn't fall further, were able to achieve what we could--and only the energy, passion and intensity of our current Head Coach has gotten us turned around and on-the-rise again this quickly.

 

[Escambia94]

The 2010 class probably would still be one of the best classes if Urban Meyer had not wimped out. That class was built for a specific offense and defense that was not like any other offense in terms of speed, size, and build. Throw in this new 3-4 defense and those 2010 defense recruits are the wrong ones. That class was missing an Alex Smith or Tim Tebow QB, no matter how good or bad Addazio was at running the Urban Attack--Brantley was not that guy.

Looking at who is left and applying the two year rule, I am confident the Gators will win 8 games, but not much more than that.

Now, throw in a comparison to our opponents and the numbers may shift. aTm and Georgia had stronger recruiting classes than us, but both like to choke. Tennessee is on the rise. Vanderbilt is no joke. Maybe Kerwin Bell is after the Gator coaching job and will bring a close game to Gainesville. Lot of factors to consider.

 

[DRU2012]

Time will tell, obviously--I'm a hair less pessimistic than you, but not by much, in practical terms: based on what we actually know so far, I continue to stand by my "9-and-3, plus-or-minus 1" scenario.
I'm sure Kerwin will have his squad ready-to-go, in any case...I have ALWAYS felt that JU would be a surprisingly tough game (especially early), since the moment I saw it on our schedule.
In invoking "the two year rule", I take it you are assuming that the residual effects of the losses , etc. in that 2010 class (and, to a lesser extent, in the one before) has and will continue to result in certain weaknesses in the current team that just haven't yet fully played themselves out, no matter the strength or potential of incoming (and therefore inexperienced) players.
The difference then, is perhaps a small one--and certainly one that comes purely from my gut: I believe that our Head Coach, his passion, the way he recruits as much for character as any I have seen, and the way this IS so hard to quantify (and EASY to miss or DISmiss on the part of opposing coaches and teams) that gives us a certain "edge" this season...and we'll need it, especially early. If I'm right, it will be a fleeting advantage, anyway--but I also see us getting steadily (and excitingly) stronger as the season goes along, that "inexperience" fades, and we begin to show what this program is going to be in seasons ahead, what Muschamp has been building towards and continues to aim at.

 

[Escambia94]

Updated on July 30th to reflect new additions to the class of 2013.