2018 Coaching Search Retrospective

[Escambia94]

With the impending firing of Chip Kelly, all three coaches that were allegedly considered for the vacancy left by the firing of Jim McElwain in 2017, are all gone. How well did these three perform with their respective teams?

Chip Kelly is paid $5.6M per year at UCLA. He finished with a record of 33-33.

UCLA Bruins (Pac-12)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	3–9	3–6	5th (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2019	4–8	4–5	T–3rd (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2020	3–4	3–4	5th (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	8–4	6–3	T–2nd (South)	NC Holiday	N/A	N/A
2022	9–4	6–3	T–5th	L Sun	21	21
2023	6–4	3–4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
UCLA:	33-33 (0.50)	25-25 (0.50)
Total:	79-40 (0.66)

Scott Frost was paid $3M for his buyout to UCF, then $5M per year at Nebraska. His overall buyout for Nebraska totaled $15M. He finished with a record of 16-31.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	4–8	3–6	T–5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2019	5–7	3–6	T–5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2020	3–5	3–5	5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	3–9	1–8	T–6th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2022	1–2	0–1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nebraska:	16-31 (0.34)	10-26 (0.28)
Total:	35-38 (0.48)

Dan Mullen was paid $7.6M per year at Florida, with a $12M buyout when he was fired. He finished with a record of 34-15.

Florida Gators (SEC)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	10–3	5–3	T–2nd (Eastern)	W Peach†	6	7
2019	11–2	6–2	2nd (Eastern)	W Orange†	7	6
2020	8–4	8–3	1st (Eastern)	L Cotton†	12	13
2021	5–6	2–6	6th (Eastern)	N/A	N/A	N/A
Florida:	34-15 (0.69)	21-14 (0.60)
Total:	103-61 (0.63)

Looking back at the 2018 head coaching search, I think UF made the best decision.

 

[DRU2012]

With the impending firing of Chip Kelly, all three coaches that were allegedly considered for the vacancy left by the firing of Jim McElwain in 2017, are all gone. How well did these three perform with their respective teams?

Chip Kelly is paid $5.6M per year at UCLA. He finished with a record of 33-33.

UCLA Bruins (Pac-12)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	3–9	3–6	5th (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2019	4–8	4–5	T–3rd (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2020	3–4	3–4	5th (South)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	8–4	6–3	T–2nd (South)	NC Holiday	N/A	N/A
2022	9–4	6–3	T–5th	L Sun	21	21
2023	6–4	3–4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
UCLA:	33-33 (0.50)	25-25 (0.50)
Total:	79-40 (0.66)

Scott Frost was paid $3M for his buyout to UCF, then $5M per year at Nebraska. His overall buyout for Nebraska totaled $15M. He finished with a record of 16-31.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	4–8	3–6	T–5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2019	5–7	3–6	T–5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2020	3–5	3–5	5th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	3–9	1–8	T–6th (West)	N/A	N/A	N/A
2022	1–2	0–1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nebraska:	16-31 (0.34)	10-26 (0.28)
Total:	35-38 (0.48)

Dan Mullen was paid $7.6M per year at Florida, with a $12M buyout when he was fired. He finished with a record of 34-15.

Florida Gators (SEC)	Overall	Conf	Standing	Bowl	Coaches Poll	AP Poll
2018	10–3	5–3	T–2nd (Eastern)	W Peach†	6	7
2019	11–2	6–2	2nd (Eastern)	W Orange†	7	6
2020	8–4	8–3	1st (Eastern)	L Cotton†	12	13
2021	5–6	2–6	6th (Eastern)	N/A	N/A	N/A
Florida:	34-15 (0.69)	21-14 (0.60)
Total:	103-61 (0.63)

Looking back at the 2018 head coaching search, I think UF made the best decision.

BUT--
Mullen, though often (when fully interested and engaged) a decent ONFIELD gameday Coach, left quite a lot to be desired in terms of all the details, large and small, of "turning around" a by then floundering program. He was NEVER gonna bring us Championships (not with his laissez faire attitude towards player character, OR his notorious inattention to recruiting)--and CHAMPIONSHIPS were, and ARE, what long since EVERY GATOR COACH is expected to be VISIBLY building towards.
So:
What does this mean to US, here and now?
I used to think I had a more certain answer to that question, but by now I'm not so sure.
I happen to know ONE person who very well might--someone who could very possibly be "in the room" when such decisions are made...
That individual is very careful, even honorably tight-lipped when it comes to sharing such info. However, an uncharacteristic outburst on the phone earlier today, more an "exhalation of frustration" than any purposeful piece of analysis, has put me in a bit of a strange position: I won't violate a trust--but it cannot HELP but affect my subsequent assertions, at this point.
So here goes:
As things now stand, there is a point in coming days where the mounting lost games, should they go on as expected, and mounting lost commits, should they TOO "go on as expected", where (DESPITE the high buy out) Billy Napier may well be fired after all.
Now, it would have to include pretty well the heart of the anticipated 2024 incoming class, in which case the above isn't exactly as "surprising" perhaps as it might once have seemed, but there it is.
I hate it--what things have come to in major college football and any sense of "Team Character" or "wanting to be a GATOR, versus "going to the highest bidder" (a la PRO football).
But that's the way it is.
I won't be doing much more than "intermittently monitoring" tomorrow's game at Mizzou.
I'm not sure about Thanksgiving and FSU; the last time I missed watching that game I was a graduate exchange student in London, England. That was pre-internet; now I could one coukd probably stream it. Anyway, I plan to be watching at kick-off, but I cannot see myself sticking around for a pummeling.
That right there is the problem:
Things are starting to really get out of hand:
It is safest to expect the worst.

 

[Escambia94]

The point is that out of the realistic choices available to UF in 2018, Mullen was the best one. Furthermore, Scott Frost and was not even an option. Rumors of Scott Stricklin contacting Frost only to be rejected are just that—rumors. One news source reported a rumor and now everyone just accepts it as fact. Same with Chip Kelly. The search panel did inquire about Kelly’s NCAA status to make sure any NCAA team was legally allowed to contact Kelly or his agent.

The point is that Stricklin knows what he is doing. All this talk about him failing with coaching hires is such bullshit. Stricklin knew he wanted Dan Mullen, but he put together a panel to do the research without personal bias, and they came up with the same conclusion that Mullen was the best choice in 2018. The data I provided illustrates the sheer stupidity of the most vocal Gator fans on the Internet who continuously call for the firing of Stricklin just because Gator football is not winning national championships. Newsflash: winning national championships is hard. It is harder to win championships when the AD is incompetent as a businessman and talent evaluator and lucky for UF Stricklin is among the best.

Napier will learn and he will get better. This does not mean that he will win national championships, but for now I would be happy if Napier fixes all the underlying issues preventing Florida from winning championships so he or his successor can win one in the next decade.

For the record: Stricklin only contacted one man in 2021 when he looked for a head coach and that was Billy Napier. All the bullshit rumors about being rejected by Brian Kelly are just that. BK will likely be named the best coaching hire of 2021/ 2022, but he will probably not win a championship at LSU. Napier might not win a championship at UF, but he is a necessary hire for UF to ever win another championship.

 

[DRU2012]

I know/see (AGREE) what you mean.
In the final analysis, I think it's probably a real shame that NEXT season's schedule appears set to be even tougher than this one's...
Otherwise, perhaps even WITH the lengthening list of late flips it might not have felt so much as if "the writing is on the wall" already for Billy:
It suddenly looks like he TOO may well be another "three and out" victim.

 

[DRU2012]

(AND even THAT may only be if he can manage to hold the bulk of what is left of this class AND add a couple/few more pieces recruiting and thru the portal)