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Official Game Thread, Week 10: #13 Florida Gators 17, Missouri 38 (HC), November 3, 2018

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Escambia94

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Franks did the best he could, but sometimes your best just is not enough. If Franks wants to play in the NFL like his brother, he had better consider a position switch.
 

DRU2012

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YES. I am done. With my rant. And the game. And whatever hopes I nurtured for THIS season. It'll mess with our recruiting, whatever comes next--but THAT ship has sailed--after last week, and THIS one especially. Now we will just have to see how our COACH deals with it all. I have faith in HIM--that hasn't changed. Trask has made all the throws here that Franks has repeatedly MISSED. OK, so maybe Coach stayed with the latter longer than he might have, probably SHOULD have today. What's done is done. What matters is what happens FROM HERE. We'll be REAMED in the public perceptions--and hence in the rankings and Bowl eligibility, least for now. Now, more than ever, we are mostly playing for OURSELVES, what we are going to do and BE.
But now Mullen owes Franks NOTHING. He can go out and "make promises truthfully and with a clear conscience--get an experienced senior to transfer in if that's out there and doable, while Jones develops under HIM, OR if Trask looks particularly good rest of the way, at least GIVE HIM A GOOD LOOK, (and depending on Jones' progress from here) EVEN ANOTHER SHOT at the starting role going into next season.
But we ALL gotta face it: No matter where you've stood on this issue up til today, "the Franks experiment"/ gamble is over.
 

DRU2012

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Franks did the best he could, but sometimes your best just is not enough. If Franks wants to play in the NFL like his brother, he had better consider a position switch.
Yes--and at UF, a "ribbon for participating" is just not ANYTHING LIKE acceptable or appreciated. It sure as hell ain't up to Mullen's own standards and ambitions.
A performance like today's would likely get him sat down at UT SAN ANTONIO or FIU, let alone ANY of "the Big Boys"...and if we EVER wanna be securely back among "the Big Boys" again, well, you get the picture.
Again, with Jones there and Trask looking like he did in that bad situation, and our prospects dimming steadily and dramatically, I can see NO reason why he'd WANT to start Franks again. It gains us nothing--and from here potentially LOSES us much.
 

awebbf5

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Frank's is not a long term thing I cant imagine. I'm ready for Emory Jones, for as bad as we played i still enjoy my time here. Hopefully we finish 9-3. At cracked barrel eating dinner.
 

DRU2012

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I am just afraid that somehow there is something here I just don't grasp about our Head Coach, and his downright stubborness in sticking with Franks as long as he has--and continuing to do so today WAY beyond loyalty and reasonability. I really like and admire everything else I've seen from him--but I'm afraid he's gonna go back to him STILL... and I just see NO LOGICAL OR PRACTICAL REASON AT ALL WHY HE SHOULD. Maybe YOU can somehow explain this to me, E--, should it indeed come to pass. Is there some shrewd consideration I am blind to so far?
To me, the only thing left now is to turn the page, show his team, the fans and future prospects that he IS "loyal" (he's DONE that, at least), but also intent on doing what he must to keep competing, to try and make his team BETTER, to look to the FUTURE if/when the present threatens to implode.
 

DRU2012

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Message to @awebbf5, :
I am so sorry this day was no doubt such a let down for you and yours and ALL our fans in The Swamp, brother. Hope you had a great tine, regardless, maybe drank a bit too much beer and got to at least swear, howl and complain with your fellow Gators en masse. Certainly didn't get NEAR enough opportunity to feel that once-vaunted (but WILL return) Swamp/Homefield Advantage much... You could FEEL how much they WANTED to, were READY--but Franks' failures early kept an early-exhausted D out there MUCH too long from their 2nd drive on, and gave no real CHANCE for cheering until Fillipe was finally OUTTA there in the 2nd half, and Trask came in and finally, all too late began to spark the offense...Had that started in the 2nd quarter, the defense then getting rest due to longer drives and us keeping it close with scores, it MIGHTA all turned out differently--but as it is...
Anyway, have a safe trip home--and we'll be interested to hear any of your impressions, overall.
 

DRU2012

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Frank's is not a long term thing I cant imagine. I'm ready for Emory Jones, for as bad as we played i still enjoy my time here. Hopefully we finish 9-3. At cracked barrel eating dinner.
Oh--hadn't seen this post when I wrote above. Thanks for that--EXACTLY the right attitude. Back here at home after clearing out of the Champions--where nearly 100 once-enthusiatic Gator Alumni had themselves cleared out remarkably early this time: Mostly longtime fans there recognized "writing on the wall" rather early--more than half cleared out by halftime, rest by the time Trask took over; I was engrossed mostly in my long rantings, and only looked up and noticed I was one of the few left in the 4th quarter when the waitress came over, noted how empty it was, how that was "early for a Gator game here", and informed me SHE was checking out early as a result... Now that you mention it, hardly ate a thing today, just nursed a few Shiners and picked at some boneless chicken balls; Cracker Barrel a strong choice (I'm a fan too)--but too played out now I think to head back out. Have a great eve, man--and enjoy the rest of your trip!
(As for Franks and all he COULDN'T do and never will, I can only say right at this moment that, for all the reasons I went into DURING the game and AFTER here above, I can ONLY HOPE AND PRAY that our Head COACH is finished with his insistent "Franks is our clear and present starter"-experiment now too. This one was particularly disappointing and painful--and the ONLY way I can see accepting it and moving on is IF the next step is to make the complete outlook-change that includes shifting into "getting ready for what comes NEXT"-mode.)
GATORS FOREVER!
 

DRU2012

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On paper the Gators should win this game rather handily based on sheer talent and better coaching. The numbers below show the talent evaluation from the player scouting profile. Ratings above 0.99 equals 5*, above 0.90 equals 4*, and above 0.85 equals 3*.
Code:
QB Feleipe Franks SO 0.973    | QB Drew Lock SR 0.955
RB Jordan Scarlett JR 0.946   | RB Larry Rountree SO 0.800
WR-X Van Jefferson JR 0.952   | SLOT J. Johnson JR 0.862
WR-Y Tyree Cleveland JR 0.981 | WR R. Floyd JR 0.842
WR-Z Josh Hammond JR 0.929    | WR E. Hall 0.850
TE C'yontai Lewis SR 0.846    | TE A. Okwuegbunu SO 0.861
LT Martez Ivey SR 0.999       | LT  Y. Durant JR 0.822
LG Tyler Jordan SR 0.882      | LG K. Pendleton SR 0.833
C Nick Buchanan JR 0.827      | C T. Colon-Castin 0.845
RG Fred Johnson SR 0.833      | RG T. Wallace JR 0.845
RT Jawaan Taylor JR 0.845     | RT P. Adama SR 0.849
DE Jabari Zuniga JR 0.860     | DE T. Willians SO 0.867
NT Elijah Conliffe SO 0.894   | DT T. Beckner SR 0.858
DT Tedarrell Slaton SO 0.968  | NT W. Palmore SR 0.858
BUCK Jachai Polite JR 0.854   | DE C. Turner SO 0.836
STAR C. Gardner-Johnson 0.977 | WLB T. Hall SR 0.864
MLB David Reese JR 0.879      | MLB C. Garrett JR 0.807
MLB Vosean Joseph SLB 0.859   | SLB B. Lee SR 0.900
LCB CJ Henderson SO 0.938     | LCB D. Acy JR 0.847
SS Brad Stewart SO 0.935      | SS C. Hilton SR 0.857
FS Donovan Stiner SO 0.853    | FS T. Gillespie SO 0.809
RCB Trey Dean III FR 0.922    | RCB C. Holmes SO 0.811

At most positions the Gators are more talented, and are about equal in experience. The Gators are slightly less talented at TE and at RCB if you account for Dean being a freshman.

The team talent level breaks out as follows:
Code:
      ***Florida***|***Missouri***
TOT 0.907          | 0.849
OFF 0.910          | 0.851
DEF 0.904          | 0.847
************************************
QB/RB 0.960        | 0.878
WR 0.954           | 0.851
DB 0.925           | 0.831
OL 0.877           | 0.839
DL 0.894           | 0.855
DL/LB 0.886        | 0.856
I do NOT mean to dredge up ALL our mislaid hopes and resulting (apparently overblown by early results) expectations, E--:
No, the real reason I pulled this up here now is because it DOES so accurately reflect not only how we saw things, even after last week's Georgia loss, BUT...that ALL of it WAS "right and true".
Even with the elusive "EMOTIONAL DETAILS" that somehow at least further contributed to our loss yesterday in the general listlessness with which we came out and began play, BUT...I believe, strongly and true, that we could have easily overcome all that, at home in the Swamp quickly overcome all the rest and proceeded to save our season, had the Quarterback position been played even at a mediocre, barely adequate level in the first half, when the game was still in the balance (DESPITE how we came into the game...Speaking of which: Notice how two weeks in a row we caught a talented team coming off a heartbreaking loss and looking to bounce back by beating US...Last week we were beaten by a team deeper in talent and MUCH further along in their development than us; THIS week we let a LESS talented team overwhelm us when we just couldn't perform). The salient FACT here is that the QB clearly showed his own AND the other team (and I can't say which was more damaging) that on that day at least he was thoroughly incapable of doing the basic things required to play the position and lead his team. In other words, the CENTRAL, overweaning reason we lost is because the one guy we were completely committed to sending out there just couldn't get the job done...By the time that was accepted by our Coach, the game was already lost.
Now, that being the case--and I am pretty damn sure that Mullen of all people recognizes this, and by now NOT just for the one game either--what does he DO about it, from here? Well, regarding the rest of THIS season, I am at a loss to even begin to guess...whatever DM does he'll have multiple REASONS for, that I KNOW--at this point I just have no idea what those are. Our head Coach won't sit him to make anyone else happy; if anything, the coming storm of condemnation and blame focusing on Franks will only harden whatever resolve our Head Coach may be leaning towards to continue to use Franks as his "game manager"--one who knows the playbook and probably CAN do enough to lead our offense to wins over most of the remaining opponents on our schedule, possibly all of 'em, IF the rest of the team sucks it up, comes together, buckles down and finds the heart, pride and guts they've shown before. If Mullen believes that best helps them finish the year and leaves him maximum flexibility beyond, that's what he may do. That'll explain Franks continuing as the starter for now, if he does.
But I gotta believe more longterm, beyond the end of this season, Franks is finished as our starting QB. As well he should be. What our Head Coach envisions as his team and program's best road to continued growth and another big step forward going into NEXT year will dictate what he does now, and beyond. Period.
 

DRU2012

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@Escambia94,
(I'm up late watching "Moneyball" again--and I figure you might be the one person who can appreciate how much I wish there were some eqivalent of that "Moneyball" for college football, the nickname for what a guy named Bill James came up with and laid out in a book of that title that boiled professional BASEBALL down to a statistical model of a single number describing a particular player in terms of the NUMBER OF RUNS he is worth to you per game over the course of a season. The system, strictly (almost religiously) applied essentially allowed the Oakland A's to RUN AWAY with their division after losing all their star players to fat contracts with other teams, and starting terribly that season with the lowest payroll by far anywhere in the majors before the system eventually began showing the statistically predicted results--and eventually resulted in their running away with their division by the end. So: Any chance of something statistically similar for college football? LOL
 

Escambia94

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Moderator
Franks is not the long-term answer. Mullen did what he thought was right by doing his quarterback whisperer routine, and it worked up to a point. Franks is a better QB now than he was last year, but that is simply not good enough to beat Kentucky, Georgia, or Missouri. That means that it is not good enough to beat Miami in week 1 next year, and it might not be enough to beat South Carolina and FSU.

Franks is an utter liability at this point. The Gators have the best receiving corps since 2008, but the QB is throwing to the RBs in the flat way too much. Whenever the deep receivers are covered, he fails to throw it to the outlet receiver. When the play is designed for the short receiver, such as a screen, he misses the throw. Maybe he looks better in practice, but at this point Mullen needs to compare practice to the 9 weeks of video and figure out how to mix both QBs into the game plan.

I assume Mullen is going to be "loyal" to Franks and keep him as the starter, but I think he needs to consider what kind of similar loyalty he should show for Trask and alternate both QBs for the remainder of the season.

The moneyball statistic for a QB is yards per attempt, or yards per play. It is hard to calculate yards per play, so I will stick with YPA for now and throw in some other stats.
  • Trask 14/22 162 1 0 63.6% COMP 7.36 YPA 4.5 TD% 140.5 RAT
  • Franks 116/203 1511 16 6 57.1% COMP 7.44 YPA 7.88 TD% 2.96 INT%% 139.6 RAT
There is not enough data on Trask to anoint him the starter, and in limited action he is about the same as Franks. There is a stat called "offensive efficiency" that would be another moneyball data point that includes explosive plays, but that one hard to calculate. I can estimate it just for the last game. Since Franks is throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage and he is taking sacks, his expected explosive play yield (EXPY) is a negative number, maybe -2 yards. Trask consistently threw beyond the line of scrimmage for about 10 yards, with some yards after catch. He took a couple sacks that hurt his EXPY, but I would estimate that at +10 yards without the sacks, +6 yards with the sacks. Those are rough numbers. What this should tell the coaches is that averaged out over the course of a game, Franks and Trask are comparable, but the differentiator is that the offense is more explosive in the right situations with Trask.

In summary, I think Franks is the starter next week, but Mullen needs to alternate with Trask in order to get explosive plays.
 

DRU2012

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Franks is not the long-term answer. Mullen did what he thought was right by doing his quarterback whisperer routine, and it worked up to a point. Franks is a better QB now than he was last year, but that is simply not good enough to beat Kentucky, Georgia, or Missouri. That means that it is not good enough to beat Miami in week 1 next year, and it might not be enough to beat South Carolina and FSU.

Franks is an utter liability at this point. The Gators have the best receiving corps since 2008, but the QB is throwing to the RBs in the flat way too much. Whenever the deep receivers are covered, he fails to throw it to the outlet receiver. When the play is designed for the short receiver, such as a screen, he misses the throw. Maybe he looks better in practice, but at this point Mullen needs to compare practice to the 9 weeks of video and figure out how to mix both QBs into the game plan.

I assume Mullen is going to be "loyal" to Franks and keep him as the starter, but I think he needs to consider what kind of similar loyalty he should show for Trask and alternate both QBs for the remainder of the season.

The moneyball statistic for a QB is yards per attempt, or yards per play. It is hard to calculate yards per play, so I will stick with YPA for now and throw in some other stats.
  • Trask 14/22 162 1 0 63.6% COMP 7.36 YPA 4.5 TD% 140.5 RAT
  • Franks 116/203 1511 16 6 57.1% COMP 7.44 YPA 7.88 TD% 2.96 INT%% 139.6 RAT
There is not enough data on Trask to anoint him the starter, and in limited action he is about the same as Franks. There is a stat called "offensive efficiency" that would be another moneyball data point that includes explosive plays, but that one hard to calculate. I can estimate it just for the last game. Since Franks is throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage and he is taking sacks, his expected explosive play yield (EXPY) is a negative number, maybe -2 yards. Trask consistently threw beyond the line of scrimmage for about 10 yards, with some yards after catch. He took a couple sacks that hurt his EXPY, but I would estimate that at +10 yards without the sacks, +6 yards with the sacks. Those are rough numbers. What this should tell the coaches is that averaged out over the course of a game, Franks and Trask are comparable, but the differentiator is that the offense is more explosive in the right situations with Trask.

In summary, I think Franks is the starter next week, but Mullen needs to alternate with Trask in order to get explosive plays.
I am not (and should not BE) surprised that you are well-familiar with the "Moneyball" concept, and are thus so quick to apply it with such facility in this discussion, E--.
Me, I am suffering through the replay of yesterday's game AS WE SPEAK (it is a painful (if somewhat gemaine to the issue) exercise--but I doubt I'll bother watching past the half; got what I need, well-remember the rest and what I took from it)
...I slept in late this morn', believe-it-or-not having stayed up much of the night skim reading Bill James' original work itself (had a copy purchased at the local "library outlet clearance" shop for cheap--"by the pound"!, no shit LOL--sometime ago but left sitting on a shelf unread ever since.
I "GET" your cogent reasoning in arriving at a (hopefully) similarly-efficient "boils-DOWN-to-THIS" number--I'm just still a little hazy on how we are to APPLY that.
In the end, for me at least it still comes down to more intuitive, "eyetest"-fueled conclusions--which by definition makes these EMOTIONAL ones, exactly what one is trying NOT to do any further if one is properly applying such an approach.
But with that caveat clearly stated up-top, it seems clear, no matter HOW you slice, dice and/or rationalize it, that
(1) Yes, for all the reasons you anticipate/pre-explain, DESPITE Franks' regression to "hands down the weakest starting QB in the SEC" these last coupla weeks (and he wasn't any great shakes at his nominally-improved "best"--I mean, 8-for-22 turns out to be pretty well his AVERAGE day now, going back to the last game we WON!), Mullen probably will continue to use Franks, even CALL him "the starter" if/when he DOES begin subbing in Trask--which I agree seems the absolute MINIMUM move he must make, OR...
(2) Bite-the-bullet and more or less chalk it up to a "Failed Experiment"--one where he TRIED, gave the kid every chance and more despite mainly only managing to HIDE young Franks' inadequacies--and in the end, finally couldn't even do THAT anymore.
It's a matter of a DECISION: Between chucking any further concern with our success rest of the way THIS season, and instead concentrating on beginning work with who and what he'll be aiming in spring and beyond, OR trying to salvage what he can from THIS one for the SAKE of recruiting etc, with an EYE much as possible towards prepping for "beyond".
This latter approach is the likeliest, I figure--No doubt Franks himself is already getting savaged "out there" (I don't know for sure, since I'm not tuning IN to ANY of it--but it is COMING--and NOT just from the public on Twitter and the various sites and call-in shows, but soon and often from the very same "professional" people who ignored practically the very same levels-of-performance from the kid long as we were winning, no matter WHO the competition was or HOW we managed it overall, or whether we (more and more) "just squeaked by", when we did. Dan won't give a damn about any of them or that--if anything it will harden his detetmination to carry out whatever PLAN/work-around he incorporates Franks' continued participation INTO in order to accomplish whatever retrenched-goals he will now endeavor to aim for in finishing this season and moving on to "NEXT!".
And well he should: My longterm confidence and respect for our Head Coach remains undimmed. If anything, I think perhaps he is to some extent here maybe a victim of his own success: He has always been able to succeed at least to SOME extent in molding a "raw talent" into an at least serviceable quarterback at every level he has worked at and been required to do so. Here was this big, strapping young kid, to some extent a big gawky version of what is getting to be (in terms of dimensions) at least the LOOK of "the modern QB-TYPE", he had a cannon-strong throwing-arm and was athletic (if in a gangly sort of way)--the kid had a good attitude, worked hard, he seemed to show early progress and improvement, and no matter what, most of the time at first he didn't LOSE games--here and there even did enough to be a part of why we WON: And we were WINNING. If he "hung on" with Franks perhaps "a game too long", well, by that point how much "choice" did he/WE have? How much NOW???
So that is where things are at. We DO still have Trask, and (eventually, if for now just "here and there"), Jones...I'll neither be surprised nor especially "outraged" if it APPEARS that Franks is still "the Starter" after yesterday, at least isn't explicitly demoted--but "between the lines", under the public surface I'll be watching VERY CRITICALLY for the signs of real and true changes-in-approach for our offense from here: No matter how careful, even subtle at first (we are still learning how this Head Coach does and WILL DO things here), we should, NEED to see something along those lines at the very LEAST.
 

DRU2012

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Is Kelly Bryant an option?
Just noticed this today, while reviewing the Gameday threads, etc.
Good question. In point of fact, there will be SEVERAL quality, AVAILABLE "senior transfers" out there; Who of them best fits Mullen's system and plans? Just as important, who among them can we most smoothly approach and land--and in the process least risk adversely affect team chemistry and unity? These additional opportunities for quickly, if temporarily enhancing our potential at QB, of all positions fraught with danger to otherwise "well laid ongoing plans" already underway. It is a time of transition made more complicated by Franks' stark failure--a fragile one of delicate balance that has to be managed carefully. Still, you'd THINK Bryant, for example, could only IMPROVE us on offense--possibly to an enormous, even spectacular degree. Can we get him? Does Mullen WANT him? Many will.
And so on...
 

DRU2012

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@Escambia94,
Below are a coupla my posts late-game and directly after... They are weary, confused, and somewhat "kneejerk"--but VALID, I think, and representative of "questions worth asking", regardless. I repeat and include them HERE in case they were missed, and I believe they well-frame the discussion from here:

I am just afraid that somehow there is something here I just don't grasp about our Head Coach, and his downright stubborness in sticking with Franks as long as he has--and continuing to do so today WAY beyond loyalty and reasonability. I really like and admire everything else I've seen from him--but I'm afraid he's gonna go back to him STILL... and I just see NO LOGICAL OR PRACTICAL REASON AT ALL WHY HE SHOULD. Maybe YOU can somehow explain this to me, E--, should it indeed come to pass. Is there some shrewd consideration I am blind to so far?
To me, the only thing left now is to turn the page, show his team, the fans and future prospects that he IS "loyal" (he's DONE that, at least), but also intent on doing what he must to keep competing, to try and make his team BETTER, to look to the FUTURE if/when the present threatens to implode.
YES. I am done. With my rant. And the game. And whatever hopes I nurtured for THIS season. It'll mess with our recruiting, whatever comes next--but THAT ship has sailed--after last week, and THIS one especially. Now we will just have to see how our COACH deals with it all. I have faith in HIM--that hasn't changed. Trask has made all the throws here that Franks has repeatedly MISSED. OK, so maybe Coach stayed with the latter longer than he might have, probably SHOULD have today. What's done is done. What matters is what happens FROM HERE. We'll be REAMED in the public perceptions--and hence in the rankings and Bowl eligibility, least for now. Now, more than ever, we are mostly playing for OURSELVES, what we are going to do and BE.
But now Mullen owes Franks NOTHING. He can go out and "make promises" truthfully and with a clear conscience--get an experienced senior to transfer in if that's out there and doable, while Jones develops under HIM, OR if Trask looks particularly good rest of the way, at least GIVE HIM A GOOD LOOK, (and depending on Jones' progress from here) EVEN ANOTHER SHOT at the starting role going into next season.
But we ALL gotta face it: No matter where you've stood on this issue up til today, "the Franks experiment"/ gamble is over.
My subsequent posts here and elsewhere have worked through and (to some extent) ANSWERED some of my own above concerns...I think my later comment about our Head Coach being "a victim of his own success" in particular turns out to be an especially relevant one, espececially in context of him continuing with Franks as the supposed "starter", even if it is in name only. If it is in FACT, however, with little sign of Trask OR Jones (and I return here to the "insight" that if Jones turns out ANYTHING LIKE the "perfect fit" he is hoped/purported to be, HE WON'T BE HERE all four more of his then remaining eligible seasons--so why even WORRY about "saving his redshirt" NOW, if playing him helps the team and/or gets him READY to learn, grow and excell SOONER?), then continuing to play Franks as the starting quarterback will indeed be accepted ONLY IF WE WIN...And for all the reasons you outline above, we WON'T, not much anyway--They all know how to PLAY us on defense now! Mullen will invite and realize a veritably uniform STORM OF CRITICISM should things go that way--and that will at the very least complicate this crucial period for the very recruiting he (and ALL of us) is counting on to play its part in bringing us back, building as quickly as is possibly for and towards the FUTURE. He MUST think of that too.
 
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