Thoughts on Florida versus Kentucky and Mississippi State

There are some things that cannot be fixed overnight, such as size and skill in the trenches. Kentucky and Mississippi State have similar offensive and defensive lines, both of which are better than Florida's. Using the transitive property, Kentucky beat Florida 27-16 with 454 yards to 360 yards; Kentucky beat MSU 28-7 with 300 yards to 201 yards. MSU is a 7.5-point favorite at home, and UF is 4-8 lifetime in Starksville, but are 33-19-2 at all venues (Gainesville, Starksville, Jackson, Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Montgomery). State should overpower Florida on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Gators lead the FBS in takeaways with 14 and 43 points off turnovers. Through game 4 the Gators have already matched their offensive output in all of 2017. Feleipe Franks is #7 in the nation with 12 passing TDs (true story) and is #10 in TD to INT ratio at 12:2.

If the Gator defense and special teams step it up, and the offense plays it safe, the Gators could sneak out of Stark Vegas with a 17-10 victory.

Here is a quick comparison amongst Florida's big men and that of our SEC competition. Shown below are the height, weight, rating, national ranking out of high school, and position ranking within the respective state high schools.

Florida

• LT Martez Ivey SR 6'5" 306 5* 0.9991 #2/ #1
• LG Tyler Jordan SR 6'4" 321 3* 0.8821 #389/ #7
• C Nick Buchanan R-SR 6'3" 291 3* 0.8274 #1475/ #150
• RG Fred Johnson SR 6'6" 330 3* 0.8329 #1360/ #144
• RT Jawaan Taylor JR 6'5" 328 3* 0.8353 #941/ #46

Mississippi State

• LT Greg Eiland R-SO 6'7" 320 3* 0.8529 #764/ #67
• LG Darryl Williams R-JR 6'4" 305 3* 0.8799 #401/ #8
• C Elgton Jenkins R-SR 6'4" 290 3* 0.8092 #1663/ #138
• RT Stewart Reese R-SO 6'5" 340 #409/ #19
• RG Deion Calhoun R-SR 6'3" 310 2* #1883/ #101

Kentucky

• LT Naasir Watkins R-FR 6'6" 300 3* 0.8400 #1105/ #103
• LG Logan Stenberg R-JR 6'5" 310 3* #677/ #75
• C Drake Jackson R-SO 6'1" 290 4* 0.9371 #141/ #2
• RG Jervontius Stallings R-SR 6'3" 335 3* 0.8025 #1761/ #28
• RT George Asafo-Adjei SR 6'5" 325 3* #451/ #48

Kentucky's offensive line is slightly larger and more talented than Florida's and MSU's.

Valuable insights from stats, sharp and detailed...my intutitive counterpoints rest more on a gut-level impression of "feeling like I SEE" most of the things the stats appear to support...I'm watching/listening to Mullens' presser right now, and this all plays right INTO what we are seeing as his ongoing message and approach: "Progress", "greater toughness", and so on. Once more, I wanna say how much I really appreciate our Head Coach's relaxed, confident, realistic and determined attitude--always positive and pointed forward.
A lot of things swirling around the upcoming game, but of course the Coach (while freely, good-natured and realistically acknowledging the personal/competitive aspects vis a vis us going in there to face the fans, former players, cow bells et al) is mostly concerned with addressing the FOOTBALL aspects of this meeting--personnel, matchups, tendencies and his familiarity with all of it to some extent.
They'll have extra incentive (if they need it) to "show him something", perhaps--and HE'LL have extra knowledge and insight into all of the above to some extent, no doubt, which he'll use in some way if he can. But as you point out once more, E--, talent disparity "isn't something you can fix overnight"--and as Coach just noted at length here in the presser, they are DEEP in talent on that defensive line: that "disparity" may well extend "3-deep across the board"... For that reason alone our toughness and STAMINA (which improved, extended greatly this past week--we all saw the results) will likely have to take ANOTHER step forward for this one in order to withstand their running in fresh and competent skilled bodies...But if we CAN meet that challenge, and continue to create and opportunistically cash in a few turnovers, based on what we've seen of our own progress and that of the team we face I think we have a shot at beating a very good SEC opponent, even at their (what will be a very loud and hostile) place on a day that they have had circled on their calendars all summer. I believe THEY will emerge from their loss last weekend with the right determined state of mind; how much have WE learned? How well do we respond, learn grow and redouble our efforts based on our WIN? To a great extent, the answer to THAT question will go a long way towards answering all the others.

I think it will come down to whose offense can execute and which O-line can dominate. Both defenses will know what the gameplan is for both offenses.

MSU is known to have a large offensive and defensive line, but they were absolutely manhandled by Kentucky. MSU managed fewer points against Kentucky than Florida. It is hard to guess where Florida's OL and DL would rank compared to MSU, but just based on comparative performance I predict that MSU will handle Florida in the trenches and force the Gators to win with Feleipe Franks passing and the defense getting turnovers. Mullen will give some pointers to Grantham on Fitzgerald's weaknesses, just as he did with Manny Diaz when he defeated the Gators in 2010.

Assuming MSU wins the game in the trenches, and Mullen/ Grantham can negate Fitzgerald, this game will come down to Feleipe Franks and his slightly improved passing.

Leakfan12 said:

I think it will come down to whose offense can execute and which O-line can dominate. Both defenses will know what the gameplan is for both offenses.

Click to expand...

I suppose THAT is what worries me about this one: Once we factor and balance out all these points and counterpoints (like solving a quadratic equation, if y'all recall that sort of "fun" from our "school daze"--and sure enough, btw, did any of y'all ever actually USE that specific technique in everyday life since??? Not I.), we are left with exactly that matchup seemingly set to decide a close game at the season's first "turning point" for BOTH teams, Lf.
Coming INTO this season, based on everything we've seen from the string of "limp-noodle" offenses fielded by the various OCs (and Head Coaches overseeing our program) last 8 or 9 years, which squad OTHER than the O-line would we LESS want to find ourselves depending on as we entered a game like this one?!!
Now, we may already be seeing an upsurge in run-blocking play there (though at the same time we can't escape the evidence of our eyes--Franks' difficulties thus far, reflected in his completion percentages, arise directly from that same O-line's limited performance in protection duties, but the "obviously needed upgrades" that never came, year after year through Muschamp and McEllwaine (and ALL THE "NAME-guys" brought in as OC over those years) are STILL "anticipated", still "to come": I think MULLENS will actually get that done, at long last, but for now, IF it DOES all come down to that particulatar matchup (or, to be more pessimistically precise, "....all those matchUPS...", well, how can we POSSIBLY BE "optimistic" at the outcome.\up
No, we'll need our defense to arise once more here--and probably MSU to come in over-emotional, play tight to start and similarly surrender a few turnovers early on. With or without gifts we cash in, I think Mullens will recognize the situation and must try to manufacture some early advantages, get the lead and KEEP surprising them. I know it isn't the way he wants to have to gain advantage over prospective opponents (it won't WORK consistently in the SEC), but this is the week for throwing some "curves" at 'em, break out of our own "tendencies" when/where we can, IF we can, and shock them with some quick scores. Lots of ways to approach the basic idea here--but our Coach is a clever, imaginative guy, and with his detailed knowledge of their personnel, the overall situational details lend themselves to an opportunity to "hit 'em fast'n'HARD: shock them, and GET OUTA THERE WITH A WIN!"
All too easy to go in and lose a close one...Follow up with "how much we learned", etc...We KNOW we're gonna get better, BE better. I for one didn't MIND the score LOOKING worse in the UK game: We were TRYING TO WIN, right to the very end--and against bad luck and BAD CALLS kept battling.
Remember: "FUCK 'moral victories'! "
Y'all feel me?