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Counting Down: What to Expect in 2018

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Well, exactly 2 weeks from this evening we will begin to have some idea of what we can look for this season from our "New Start Florida Gator Football Program".
Y'all have your own ideas in this matter--and this is as good a time and place as any to get it out there...
Me, I will keep this short (for a change) and stick to what I see as a bottomline, overarching caveat:
Generally speaking, I see us being at least 2 full seasons from being back in the preseason, "national discussion and expectation" club. With steady results from our new Head Coach's aims, plans, staff and an optimistic view of likely recruiting progress, it will take that long before we have a good chance at having accomplished all the steps, hurtles, and required adaptations along the way to be on course with the positive tools and momentum to be there then. The one variable impossible to predict, that "extra something" that would make that MORE "likely", more feasible of course would be the emergence of a standout, BREAKout performer at one or two of the skill positions.
In the long run, of course, Mullins and Co. will be building a PROGRAM that produces consistent strength and steady success--a new culture of victory. But it doesn't take Notradamus to note the difference a star performer or two would make in that relatively short term projection. Of course, given where we're at now, with standing projected personnel and current ranking among national prognosticators regarding recruiting rankings , such person(s) stepping forward would be by definition a somewhat "unexpected emergence", should it happen.
But that's the one thing that provides the hope for an early rise: we need a coupla guys amongst an already promisingly talented group to turn out to be more than anyone realistically expects.
Given modern tracking, training and attention to detail in the art/science of recruiting, this is admittedly a bit of a longshot--but by definition, not impossible.
Meanwhile though, we gotta be patient and supportive--let this Coach, staff and team build towards eventual greatness in their own, planned way. From that P.O.V., I will try very hard to expect no more than a break-even record this year, maybe 1 win better than .500--and consider anything more than that a very promising (even satisfying, for now) start.
Well, I said I'll TRY. Like y'all, I may begin to let patience and reason get away from me with the first exciting, surprising win against a decent SEC foe , should that occur. We're Gators, after all. We get carried away. But like you, I am determined to at least try and remember that we not only expect to "get back", but we ALSO wanna see it DONE RIGHT this time--plan for the LONG term, right?
But I WILL have my eye out for those "special players" this season, hope we have some and that this regime will be providing the kind of "greenhouse" that encourages their growth, development and eventual blossoming forth.
That could be a fun and exciting part of the coming season: seeing certain young players, and around them a whole team, expanding in promise and potential.
In which case, this could not only be a lot more fun season than a lot of us may be steeling ourselves for--but one that puts us in a whole different position by its end, and a much more hopeful and promising one a year from now.
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
I think a .500 season sounds likely. Also I'm predicting two former gator coaches getting fired before the season.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I will give an upper bound and a lower bound prediction.
  • Upper bound: Gus Malzahn. In 2013, Malzahn took over for an Auburn Tigers team that went 3-9 (0-8) under Gene Chizik and turned them into a 12-2 (7-0) juggernaut in one of the biggest program turnarounds in college football. Malzahn and Mullen both started as offensive coordinators, and both worked their way up from smaller programs while honing their offensive philosophies for bigger stages with big-time programs. Mullen has the resources in 2018 that Malzahn had in 2013 in order to turn the Gators into a perennial contender in year one. CDM could very well get the Gators to 12 wins if he can energize this team.
  • Lower bound: Charlie Strong. Charlie has done well with middle tier teams since leaving Florida (37-15 with Louisville), but has struggled to reach the next level with big-time programs (16-21 with Texas). Charlie was tasked with returning the Texas Longhorns to their former glory after success at Louisville, but he only managed 5 or 6 wins a season in Austin, Texas. Charlie got the Longhorns to a mediocre 6-6 regular season record while cleaning up the locker room. I expect Mullen to get the Gators to at least 7 wins as he cleans up the Gator locker room.
The ESPN FPI predicts the Gators to win 8 or 9 games. The Gators are favored in 7 games, including every East team not named Georgia. Here are our opponents and ESPN win probability:
  • Charleston Southern 98.9%
  • Kentucky 82.7%
  • Colorado State 96.3%
  • Tennessee 66.7%
  • @ Mississippi State 34.1%
  • LSU 65.1% (2008 National Championship celebration)
  • @ Vanderbilt 83.7%
  • - Georgia 23.1%
  • Missouri 67.5% (Homecoming)
  • South Carolina 65.5%
  • Idaho 90.9%
  • @ FSU 39.4%
I think Dan Mullen's Gators will get an upset in Starksville in 2018 just as Dan Mullen's Bulldogs got an upset in Gainesville in 2010. If that happens, the Gators will likely go 10-2. FSU is another possible upset that could get the Gators to 11-1. I do not foresee the Gators upending Georgia, but if Mullen can get the Gators undefeated against teams named the Bulldogs, the Gators could very well go 12-0 in the regular season.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I will give an upper bound and a lower bound prediction.
  • Upper bound: Gus Malzahn. In 2013, Malzahn took over for an Auburn Tigers team that went 3-9 (0-8) under Gene Chizik and turned them into a 12-2 (7-0) juggernaut in one of the biggest program turnarounds in college football. Malzahn and Mullen both started as offensive coordinators, and both worked their way up from smaller programs while honing their offensive philosophies for bigger stages with big-time programs. Mullen has the resources in 2018 that Malzahn had in 2013 in order to turn the Gators into a perennial contender in year one. CDM could very well get the Gators to 12 wins if he can energize this team.
  • Lower bound: Charlie Strong. Charlie has done well with middle tier teams since leaving Florida (37-15 with Louisville), but has struggled to reach the next level with big-time programs (16-21 with Texas). Charlie was tasked with returning the Texas Longhorns to their former glory after success at Louisville, but he only managed 5 or 6 wins a season in Austin, Texas. Charlie got the Longhorns to a mediocre 6-6 regular season record while cleaning up the locker room. I expect Mullen to get the Gators to at least 7 wins as he cleans up the Gator locker room.
The ESPN FPI predicts the Gators to win 8 or 9 games. The Gators are favored in 7 games, including every East team not named Georgia. Here are our opponents and ESPN win probability:
  • Charleston Southern 98.9%
  • Kentucky 82.7%
  • Colorado State 96.3%
  • Tennessee 66.7%
  • @ Mississippi State 34.1%
  • LSU 65.1% (2008 National Championship celebration)
  • @ Vanderbilt 83.7%
  • - Georgia 23.1%
  • Missouri 67.5% (Homecoming)
  • South Carolina 65.5%
  • Idaho 90.9%
  • @ FSU 39.4%
I think Dan Mullen's Gators will get an upset in Starksville in 2018 just as Dan Mullen's Bulldogs got an upset in Gainesville in 2010. If that happens, the Gators will likely go 10-2. FSU is another possible upset that could get the Gators to 11-1. I do not foresee the Gators upending Georgia, but if Mullen can get the Gators undefeated against teams named the Bulldogs, the Gators could very well go 12-0 in the regular season.
An interesting take all around, E-...and having considered your points, AND as I have enormous respect for the realistic thoroughness of your usual caliber, gives me additional hope...
But YIKES!: A possible “12-0 reg season” projection? I am almost afraid to “hope” THAT much—and at the same time have a certain amount of trepidation that such a sudden, unexpected “early breakout” could produce unrealistic expectations in the fans, beyond that could spoil what I still believe over the next 2-3 seasons will require patience from Gator Nation in terms of not only recognizing the true general starting-point talent level (as far as we know, “good but not great”—with promising “unknowns”), but in the time and culture change required for “doing it right”, CHANGING the locker room mentality, more a TEAM—of “good guys” supporting each other, stepping up where and when required, etc...
And I STILL don’t see any chance of that kind of improvement, game in/game out, without the aforementioned “breakout stars at skill positions” (both/either side of the line-of-scrimmage).
But OMG I want you to be RIGHT!!!
And really, a part of me acknowledges, “Why NOT?!!” It not only happens, it has happened to US over the years—altho’ my fears stem from such “surprising successes” from each of our LAST 2 Head Coach’s early efforts and teams’ first seasons turned out to be more mirage than solid constructs—and we all paid, in false hopes and great let downs.
No, no matter what, I don’t wanna see us fool ourselves this time. I really want to see us give this Coach and his staff the room and time to “GET IT DONE RIGHT THIS TIME”. I DO believe that it CAN be done, the right combination of talent, heart, training and mutual support, along with a strong sense of pride, honor and self-respect, can eventually build to lasting success.
Now, if it turns out that there is more there than we currently realize, and the right people are in the right place at the right time and it all were to come together sooner than expected, well, no one will be better thrilled than I.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I am not saying we will go undefeated, but I am saying 12-0 is the upper bound of my expectations. Given better coaching, the 2018 Gators are good enough to keep up with any team other than Alabama. Granted, there will be missteps since there are new schemes on offense and defense. We will have injuries. We will have suspensions. We will have players ejected for targeting. Barring those issues, this Gator team is built to keep up with the best of the East--Georgia. This team is not built to keep up with Alabama, at least not yet. This team lacks consistency to beat Mississippi State and Florida State, but it is possible.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I am not saying we will go undefeated, but I am saying 12-0 is the upper bound of my expectations. Given better coaching, the 2018 Gators are good enough to keep up with any team other than Alabama. Granted, there will be missteps since there are new schemes on offense and defense. We will have injuries. We will have suspensions. We will have players ejected for targeting. Barring those issues, this Gator team is built to keep up with the best of the East--Georgia. This team is not built to keep up with Alabama, at least not yet. This team lacks consistency to beat Mississippi State and Florida State, but it is possible.
"...but it is possible."
Yes. You're right about us being built to compete against the best in the East, agsinst "everyone but Alabama", at least right now. But for all the qualifiers, I guess I am trying to "be ready" for some uneven performances and resulting outcomes, this season at least. Again, though, with some real breakout performances, PLUS maybe better "luck" (or "Strength and Conditioning"?) this year on the injury front, well, aho knows how it'll all ne reflected eventually in our actual record? As always this time of year, in spite of myself of COURSE I am excited.
And btw, along those lines: I am searching about for some way of accessing a TV telecast of our first game this Sat., buried as I am here in S Central Texas, DEEP Big 12/Longhorn country...So far seems internet radio is my only option, but I am at this point casting about everywhere I can to find an actual TV telecast alternative...You'd think by now, in this age of satellites and internet streaming I could at least find SOME way--pay for it, if nec, but so far nothing. Anyone have any suggestions?
 

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