Florida football in 2013 versus 2017 and why there is hope in 2018

In 2013, the Gators were coming off Will Muschamp's best year (11-2, 7-2). The Gators started the season ranked at #10 and looked to be on the rise according to sports writers, with some even putting Jeff Driskel, Matt Jones, Kelvin Taylor, and their entire defense on their watch lists. That season the Gators lost 23 players to injury for a total of 120+ games of playing time lost amongst those players.

In 2017, the Gators were coming off Jim McElwain's second consecutive SEC East berth. The Gators started the season ranked #17 and looked to be on the rise until the credit card scandal took away 10 players. The Gators started racking up injuries and suspensions far beyond 2013 levels, with over 30 players lost for a total of over 200 games of playing time lost.

Right now the Gators have 14 seniors and redshirt seniors who will not return, which is fewer than most senior classes due to the high attrition rate for the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes. There are 26 juniors including walk-ons, which shows that McElwain did attempt to bolster roster size better than Muschamp. Of those 26, only a couple will declare for the NFL, and a couple will just leave football due to medical issues or other reasons. There are over 30 sophomores and 30 freshmen eligible to come back next year, assuming they recover from injury and are still on the team after pre-trial intervention. For now the Gators have the #9 recruiting class in the nation pending the coaching change--with at least three early enrollments committed regardless of the coaching change.

If it were not for the credit card scandal, Antonio Callaway or Jordan Scarlett would have been the top pick for the 2018 NFL Draft, possibly in round 2 or 3. Neither will likely get drafted now. Duke Dawson might go in a late round assuming he is healthy and performs well in pro days, but if he is not invited to the NFL Combine I would mark him as an UDFA along with Marcell Harris. DeAndre Goolsby will likely not get drafted. Johnny Townsend might be our most consistent player to graduate in recent memory. Eddy Pineiro is eligible for the NFL and has a strong connection to Jim McElwain and Johnny Townsend. Martez Ivey could improve his NFL stock. Jordan Sherit is a complete mystery. Mark Thompson will likely go undrafted. This leaves CeCe Jefferson as the final candidate for the NFL should he forego his senior season.

Given the slim pickings for early NFL departures, and fewer expulsions due to the credit card scandal than some of us expected, I can see a very talented roster next year. Of course, a lot will depend on the coaching hires. Right now the recruiting class is holding on better than expected, and the amount of talent coming back should be higher due to the injuries and suspensions in 2017, oddly enough.

I think 2018 could be a good year if either Franks greatly improves or they get a blue chip quarterback.

Leakfan12 said:

I think 2018 could be a good year if either Franks greatly improves or they get a blue chip quarterback.

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Agreed. We see that the 4* and 5* QBs recruited here do well elsewhere, so we can assume that Florida can recruit talent, but needs to develop talent better. Franks might be one good coach away from leading a top 100 offense.

Escambia94 said:

In 2013, the Gators were coming off Will Muschamp's best year (11-2, 7-2). The Gators started the season ranked at #10 and looked to be on the rise according to sports writers, with some even putting Jeff Driskel, Matt Jones, Kelvin Taylor, and their entire defense on their watch lists. That season the Gators lost 23 players to injury for a total of 120+ games of playing time lost amongst those players.

In 2017, the Gators were coming off Jim McElwain's second consecutive SEC East berth. The Gators started the season ranked #17 and looked to be on the rise until the credit card scandal took away 10 players. The Gators started racking up injuries and suspensions far beyond 2013 levels, with over 30 players lost for a total of over 200 games of playing time lost.

Right now the Gators have 14 seniors and redshirt seniors who will not return, which is fewer than most senior classes due to the high attrition rate for the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes. There are 26 juniors including walk-ons, which shows that McElwain did attempt to bolster roster size better than Muschamp. Of those 26, only a couple will declare for the NFL, and a couple will just leave football due to medical issues or other reasons. There are over 30 sophomores and 30 freshmen eligible to come back next year, assuming they recover from injury and are still on the team after pre-trial intervention. For now the Gators have the #9 recruiting class in the nation pending the coaching change--with at least three early enrollments committed regardless of the coaching change.

If it were not for the credit card scandal, Antonio Callaway or Jordan Scarlett would have been the top pick for the 2018 NFL Draft, possibly in round 2 or 3. Neither will likely get drafted now. Duke Dawson might go in a late round assuming he is healthy and performs well in pro days, but if he is not invited to the NFL Combine I would mark him as an UDFA along with Marcell Harris. DeAndre Goolsby will likely not get drafted. Johnny Townsend might be our most consistent player to graduate in recent memory. Eddy Pineiro is eligible for the NFL and has a strong connection to Jim McElwain and Johnny Townsend. Martez Ivey could improve his NFL stock. Jordan Sherit is a complete mystery. Mark Thompson will likely go undrafted. This leaves CeCe Jefferson as the final candidate for the NFL should he forego his senior season.

Given the slim pickings for early NFL departures, and fewer expulsions due to the credit card scandal than some of us expected, I can see a very talented roster next year. Of course, a lot will depend on the coaching hires. Right now the recruiting class is holding on better than expected, and the amount of talent coming back should be higher due to the injuries and suspensions in 2017, oddly enough.

Click to expand...

Leakfan12 said:

I think 2018 could be a good year if either Franks greatly improves or they get a blue chip quarterback.

Click to expand...

Sigh. "Top 100 offense"...Talk about "lowered expectations". But you're right--in everything you say. I see that. In terms of those restricted and devolved parameters, there is "hope" that we will be "better" than we showed of late.
For me, though, I HOPE for more. Way I see it, we need to make some big moves upward RIGHT NOW, or at least as soon as possible. GOTTA do better than "hold what we got". That recruiting class, for one thing. And yes, particular attention at QB and the O-line.
We're going to have a big, promising change at Head Coach, his staff, philosophy, and all the rest--and it is MY hope, everyone's, that whomever it turns out to be will seize the moment and "double down" on whatever advantages are there for a time...One more reason to get this all moving soon as possible.
I too see POSSIBLE reasons for hope in where we are starting from--but we are missing so many pieces and are still unclear on what, WHO we'll have back. 2018 will be a "turnaround year" at best, no matter what. It will take strength, vision, and a flexible plan shared among a tireless, determined staff of "outside the box" thinkers.
This is long past "overdue". Twice before now we have found ourselves here, full of what turned out to be FALSE hopes...Each time worse than the last: However you cut it as far as "how it happened", we've dug ourselves a deep hole. This time "hope" rests on not just getting "the right man", but that coming in he himself has people, resources, and a clear idea as to where he wants to gather and lead them...lead US.
I have some thoughts on all that, varied according to whomever it turns out to be. Each one has his strengths, and will have to exploit them to the max in new and unexpected ways. But we need to get him in here and that all going sooner rather than later.
Like, NOW. We don't get to "mull things over", play nice and proper and muddle thru the rest of the current string. Not again.
Jumping the gun on the "traditional ways this is done" is just the first of a string of "questionably controversial" surprises we may have available ahead. I have a feeling that getting the guy who does things THAT way (or at least has no prob with them if/when they are out there and the means to our ends) is exactly what we'll need. Long as the "rules" they break aren't laws but merely "the accepted way of doing things", count me in. The other way has gotten us reemed, cleaned and barefoot with our pockets hanging out, so far. Lets change more than the names and faces: Time to change the GAME.
That is where my "hope" begins.

You are right. We do not need to spend too much time Mullen things over. Just get that Chip off your shoulder and make a decision before the winter Frost settles in. I am sure that we will make Strong hire.